Author: Guo Jiayi, Guo Yuwei, Gu Huaiyu, Lu Political Commissar
Market Review:
Data Source: Wind, Industrial Research
Macroeconomics: The epidemic disturbs
Economy: 1 October, the epidemic in many places has repeated, the recovery of the service industry has encountered challenges again, and the growth of automobile consumption has slowed down significantly. Data shows that the proportion of expected increase in housing prices in the third quarter continues to decline, and the expectation of the real estate market needs to be further stabilized.
Price: 1 October CPI will both decline year-on-year and PPI. Affected by the high base, PPI in October may turn negative year-on-year.
Financing: 1 financing demand showed a feature of turning from strong to weak, indicating that the boost to financing demand by equipment renewal and re-lending has weakened. Social financing may decline again year-on-year in October.
Source: WIND, Industrial Research
Interest rate : The market will play around the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio
Funding side: 1 October tax period was extended to the end of the month, so the overall funding side remained loose in the early part of the month. Central Bank has been resumed in MLF in equal volume this month, increasing the scale of reverse repurchase at the end of the month. The attitude of protecting the capital side has not changed, and subsequent reserve requirement ratio cuts can still be expected. From September to October, the volatility of the capital market has increased significantly compared with the previous period. Before the reserve requirement ratio is lowered, we must be wary of the intensified capital market volatility.
Interest rate: The market will play around the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio at the end of 2. The economic and financial data are highly volatile this year due to policies, and there is no obvious trend. Under such a background, the bond market is expected to remain in the volatility range of 2.6-2.8% in November. If 2.7% of 10-year treasury bonds are used as the standard and the curve pattern is examined, it can be found that the current level of ultra-long and ultra-short-term treasury bonds is close to the level in 2016 and is at a historically low level. The 2-3-year treasury bonds are only slightly lower than the level in 2016, and there is still a certain gap with 2008 and 2020.
Source: WIND, Industrial Research
Foreign exchange market : Rate Full pricing in the short term
RMB: From the perspective of fundamental , the RMB repair market will continue until the first half of next year, and the pressure is expected to be reduced in the second half of next year, but the trend reversal may need to wait until the end of next year or the year after.
USD: Fed rate hike fully priced in the short term, and the November interest rate meeting is expected to lack surprises. The difference in fundamentals between the United States and Europe has stabilized, and the index has entered a volatile market.
US Treasury : has experienced a rapid rise in September and October, and the US Treasury interest rate has begun to pull back as scheduled since late October. It is expected that this wave of pullback will last until the December interest rate meeting.
Source: Bloomberg, Industrial Research
precious metals, commodity : The conditions for gold trend reversal do not yet have
precious metals: Recently, facing the upward and downward expectations of the Federal Reserve tightening expectations, precious metals remain "calm". We maintain that precious metals are still bottoming out in , and the trend reversal conditions are not yet met. Silver will continue to be stronger than gold in the short term.
Crude oil: If priced based on US commercial inventory, the oil price will be basically balanced, but if the influence of strategic reserves is superimposed, the oil price will be significantly underestimated. After the midterm elections, be wary of the rise in oil prices by the US supplementary strategic reserves.
Source: Bloomberg, Industrial Research
đSpecial reminder
This report only analyzes the macro economy and does not include investment ratings or valuation analysis of securities and securities-related products. It does not belong to securities reports and does not constitute suggestions to investors.
