HI~The second issue of the Golden Chat is here. In the previous issue, some friends said "no soft use", and some friends said "Why is the sixth article 6 gone"? Don't worry, it's all in this issue!
cough, cough cough, everyone, I am the "Xiao Liu" who played the game in the last issue. It mainly depends on how he is too nonsense. I don't cut off my practical things like this!
Let’s stop talking about it. This issue may be a bit long. Let’s start now (after writing and going to bed)
As a golden circle novice, the most important thing is to grasp three points:
1. What is the golden circle like? What products do they have? Which one is suitable for me?
2. What are the factors that affect the price of gold? How can I determine the golden opportunity to buy and sell?
3. What will happen to the future of gold? How should I judge the gold strategy?
understand these three issues and go to a few rounds of actual combat. In the past, you can go to the battlefield and you will definitely not become a leek!
1. What is the golden circle like? What products do they have? Which one is suitable for me?
For the sake of convenience, the novice made a table. Simply put, the mainstream gold investment products in the market are divided into four types, namely physical gold, paper gold , gold T+D, and gold fund . Except for gold funds, the other three require everyone to actively choose the trading opportunity according to their different investment risk preferences.
You can see that the risks hidden by each different gold product are different. For example, a certain gold merchant had a fraud case of gold plated gold, and the gold fund with the same corresponding risks also had this tracking error problem. This depends on the operation method of the fund manager.
. Those who are able to withstand the risk of stock market price fluctuations can choose to try paper gold products from major banks. Even people with high risk preferences can choose to increase leverage to buy gold futures.
Find a gold investment product that suits you and recognize the LV level of your current overall investment, which is basically the first point in high-definition. As for other gold derivatives on the market, here the naughty spy does not recommend users to experience it. Basically, the rules seem simple, but those who try it end up losing all their money.
2. What are the factors that affect the price of gold? How can I determine the golden opportunity to buy and sell?
The key point is to distinguish what kind of impact has the greatest impact on gold and what is the time period of impact. First of all, we need to know what is the main function of gold at present?
safe-haven, US dollar spare tire, anti-inflation! It is the three major functions of gold at present, but in fact the third point has been greatly weakened.
I have worked in gold analysis institutions for a long time before. According to analysts’ practice habits, most of them look at them from four framework dimensions, namely supply and demand relationship, geopolitics, economic cycle , and USD index .
1. Supply and Demand Relationship: Every year when publishing the annual gold report, the analyst team will visit the World Gold Association and major mines to understand the output of major gold mines in this year and whether the grams of gold per ton has decreased, because this directly affects the price of gold mining costs; at the same time, we will understand the transaction volume of several major trading markets (London, Zurich, New York, and Hong Kong), as well as the "open" transaction data of the world's five major gold merchants (Ross Tsard Bank, Scotia Bank, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, and Boston Bank). This can determine the overall flow of gold in the world, determine whether there is a rise of emerging markets, and at the same time, we will know the proportion of "recycled gold" by comparing the mining volume and trading volume.
knows this and can judge the approximate cost price of gold in the next year. At the same time, such a large amount of investigation data is also a rare information that other institutions cannot obtain, which also determines how to make money through the "gold" price in the next year!
At the same time, gold is a commodity, especially seasonal cyclical attributes. This December rise is related to its seasonal fluctuations.
2. Geopolitics: Most geopolitics are sudden news, just like when you are walking on the road, you suddenly get a strong electric gun! You must be dizzy and angry! The same is true for gold. When a sudden incident of force occurs around the world, the price of gold will fluctuate violently in the short term, and investors will choose to buy gold to "have hedge" - because you don't know the truth of the specific incident, and how many countries are involved, so the best way to get hedge is to buy gold without national attributes. But when people's emotions stabilize, they will sell gold and choose other investment products.
There is a way to pick up money here. When making paper gold, the fluctuation of the world's gold price must be reflected by the gold price when the gold exchanges on various continents open. This means that if you get the news at 2 a.m., you can buy gold immediately, because only the US market in the world opens at 2 a.m., and then wait until the three periods of 6 a.m., 9 a.m. and 17 a.m., you can buy it once on dips. Which period of time is the world's main gold trading market just opened, and they will be "sleepy" and be startled by the news you get at 2 a.m.! ! !
3. Economic cycle: Many people say that gold has the function of preserving value, but strictly speaking, unless a global economic crisis occurs again, it is difficult to withdraw the anti-inflation effect of gold. The simplest chestnut, when we were young, our parents earned 10 yuan a month, but now they earn 10,000 yuan a month. Your salary has increased by 1,000 times, but gold does not have it! Not to mention housing prices~ This is also related to the current development of the financial market. More and more international currencies and financial derivatives are emerging, and investors do not need to stick to gold when facing inflation.
Therefore, this is considered, unless a systemic crash occurs, it will have little impact.
But in terms of specific investment, investors will still pay attention to the economic data of major countries in the short term, such as the US non-farm employment index and the manager procurement index of euro zone , but these impacts can only determine the market fluctuations of half an hour or even a few minutes, because there will be a lot of data of the same magnitude, and there are only a few data that directly points to the core.
4. US dollar index: This has a certain relationship with the Bretton Woods system (this will be discussed next time). The US dollar has reached the throne of the world's currency through a strong peg with gold. It is also because the US dollar has become a hard currency that can travel the world, resulting in gold retrenchment. Only when there is a system problem with the US dollar, gold will come to replace the team~
This point is obvious at two moments. One is that during the US debt crisis in 2008, the world's currency group was headless, and gold came to replace the team. The other is that trade wars have occurred frequently this year, and wars have continued around the world, but gold has not risen sharply. The main reason is that the US dollar has strengthened, and investors have chosen the US dollar to "hack off".
At this time, someone may ask, isn’t gold still related to crude oil?
is wrong! There is no absolute relationship between the two. Although in terms of price, the two have maintained a price ratio relationship of 16-17 times for a long time, the core of their price operation is completely different. One is non-renewable energy, the cost of mining technology has been well controlled, and other energy sources such as shale gas are also ready to be replaced. The other is a rare metal that cannot be destroyed. After the monetary attributes are replaced, the consensus attributes cannot be replaced. The attributes of the two are completely different, let alone the price relationship.
. In the long run, the influence of these four points is: Supply and Demand, Economic Cycle, USD Index, geopolitics. The opposite is true in the short term. By grasping these four points, you will be able to clearly understand how to deal with different information when it appears!
For example, in the short term, Russia and the United States have fierce firefights at sea, then they will definitely buy gold and rise in the short term! If diamond prices drop severely and everyone buys diamonds, then the price of gold will definitely fall all the way in the future.
3. What will happen to the future of gold? How should I judge the gold strategy?
We just talked about the four important factors that affect gold, so let’s analyze them based on these four factors.
First of all, we need to look at the prospects of future gold, which is a relatively long-term judgment, so we must first judge whether there will be huge changes in gold in future supply and demand? Can palladium, platinum, rose gold and diamonds really become alternatives to gold? Or if the technology is updated, the cost of mining gold has dropped from $1,100 to $500? Or is the 3 million tons gold planet floating outside the earth about to fall?
We have no way to judge, and most investors have no way to judge in the short term.
So let’s look at the second and third items. In the current economic cycle, the United States has particularly "jumped" this year. After changing to a new president, it can get any means to make money. The Federal Reserve is even more "jumped". The president doesn’t listen to the president and raise interest rates if he says it!
Then next year, will the world economy still enter the era of "sustainment" due to the United States? Will the EU, another economy, take action? Judging from the current trend, the Federal Reserve will still raise interest rates next year, so countries around the world will throw it away and respond with austerity policies, and the gold price will still be abandoned. When the dollar strengthens, gold will also be suppressed. Therefore, from this trend, the gold price next year will not be too optimistic.
So what about geopolitics? According to the "playing method" of the US president, there may be any new tricks next year~ that is, geopolitical issues will be in a high-frequency warning state. This trick not only refers to what the United States does, but also includes national turmoil that collapsed due to the impact of US interest rate hikes, such as Argentina , Greece , etc.
Then, after judging this way, next year is not the big year for gold, and gold will have several rounds of sharp rise amplitude.
After-class homework: After reading such a serious article, what do you think gold will be like next year? Did the poster brag?
