Gold: Yesterday (October 13) gold staged a roller coaster market again, and after falling rapidly to $1,642, it returned to the intraday fluctuation range.
The U.S. September consumer price index (CPI) released last night showed that after a 0.1% increase in August, it continued to grow by 0.4% in September; the annual rate increased by 8.2%, higher than expected 8.1%. This indicates that inflation has not yet declined significantly, which has strengthened the market's expectations for a sharp increase in interest rates in the future.
After the data was released, the yield of US bond rose rapidly, indicating that Fed will raise interest rates faster to curb inflation. However, it should be noted that over time, the expectation of a 75 basis point rate hike in November is being digested.
Technical aspect: Gold was suppressed by the resistance of the $1,680 line and fell rapidly yesterday. Although most of it was recovered in the evening, it was still short. In the short term, it may keep fluctuating downward. Pay attention to the support of the $1650 line below, and pay attention to the resistance of the $1675 line above.
Gold price trend chart: Gold hourly chart
Crude oil: Crude oil quickly tested the support of US$85.50 yesterday and quickly rose.
The EIA crude oil inventories data released in the evening from the week ending October 7 showed a significant increase of 9.88 million barrels, higher than the expected increase of 1.75 million barrels, and far higher than the previous value of 1.356 million barrels. It is basically consistent with the API in the morning. At that time, after the market was fluctuating greatly due to inflation data, the V-type reversal of US stocks boosted market confidence and oil prices also rose rapidly.
From the monthly report released by the IEA (International Energy Agency), starting from November, the actual supply of OPEC+ has dropped by about 1 million barrels per day. A new round of production cuts has reduced crude oil supply this year and next two years, and has a boost to oil prices. But demand is also decreasing, with crude oil demand expected to fall by 340,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter, lowering the growth expectation of crude oil demand growth this year to 1.9 million barrels per day.
Technical aspect: Crude oil hit the support of the $85.50 line yesterday and then rose rapidly. The probability of maintaining a high level fluctuation is relatively high. If you break through $90 above, focus on the resistance of $93/95.
Crude Oil Price Trend Chart: Crude Oil Hour Chart
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