During the Asian session on Thursday (July 14), U.S. oil fell slightly, now trading at $95.92 per barrel, due to concerns that in order to prevent inflation, the Federal Reserve will actively raise interest rates to slow economic growth and hit oil demand. Oil prices have fallen

During the Asian session on Thursday (July 14), U.S. oil fell slightly, now trading at $95.92 per barrel, due to concerns that in order to prevent inflation the Federal Reserve will actively raise interest rates to slow economic growth and hit oil demand, oil prices have fallen recently, However, supply is tight, and U.S.-Iran relations may become further tense, which may affect the Iranian nuclear negotiation process and support oil prices.

html In the past 4 days, focus will be on Federal Reserve Governor Waller’s speech on the U.S. economic outlook and the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending July 9.

Negative factors affecting oil prices

[The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that global oil inventories are at dangerous lows]

The IEA said that the combined idle production capacity of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates may drop to 2.2 million barrels per day in August, when OPEC+ will fully withdraw from production cuts. Rising oil prices and a deteriorating economic environment have begun to affect oil demand. In 2023, oil demand will increase by 2.1 million barrels per day to 101.3 million barrels per day. Non-OECD countries are leading the list of demand growth. The International Energy Agency said that the oil market is in a critical situation and faces economic risks. Risks such as recession and supply scarcity.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday that the global oil market is in a dangerous situation of scarce supplies and a possible economic recession, with rising prices and worsening economic conditions having an impact on demand. "The outlook for the oil market has rarely been so uncertain," the Paris-based agency said. "The deteriorating macroeconomic outlook and fears of a recession are weighing on market sentiment, while there are ongoing risks on the supply side."

"For now, oil demand growth in advanced economies is weaker than expected and supply from Russia is resilient," the International Energy Agency said in its monthly oil report, reducing market jitters.

Thomas Saal, senior vice president of Stone U.S. stocks ended lower on Wednesday as investors digested higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data, a report that heightened concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise key interest rates by as much as 100 basis points later this month. Fundamental concerns. All three major indexes ended lower, but all traded off early session lows and occasionally rose above their previous closing levels throughout the session.

U.S. consumer prices jumped 9.1% year-on-year in June, the largest increase in more than 40 years. Americans had to pay more for gasoline, food, medical care and rent. Gasoline prices jumped 11.2% in June after rising 4.1% in May. Excluding volatile food and energy, the year-on-year increase in the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 5.9%. Food and energy have fallen since the beginning of the reporting survey period. Ross Mayfield, an investment strategy analyst at

Baird, said, "You may have thought that CPI would be a big risk-off driver, but the market has gotten rid of that effect. (Investors) have expected the Fed to be very hawkish. I think in addition to uncertainty Outside of sex, this doesn't affect anything, which is one of the reasons why the market didn't sell off today.

The report raised the possibility that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by more than 75 basis points. Fed funds futures traders are quickly pricing in a 70% chance of a 100 basis point rate hike at the July meeting, according to a CME analysis of federal funds futures contracts.

Mayfield said, "If the Fed does not pay attention to the overall numbers, they will see commodity prices have begun to fall back since the CPI survey period," He added that a 100 basis point interest rate hike based on the June CPI report may make "Fed policy is lagging behind the curve."

Core CPI appeared to confirm that inflation continues to fall from its peak in March, but still has a long way to go before approaching the Fed's 2% inflation target. The focus appears to shift away from Fed tightening The question of whether policy can control inflation without tipping the economy into recession is turning to how severe a downturn might be.

Nine of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500 index fell, with industrials and communications services stocks seeing the largest percentage declines, while consumer discretionary stocks posted the largest gains.

[U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Adeyemo said Russia’s oil price cap plan can help fight inflation]

U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said on Wednesday that U.S. prices are still too high and the Biden administration must make every effort to bring prices down including pushing for price caps on Russian oil exports.

Adeyemo told CNBC that he believed other countries would be "very interested" in the idea of ​​setting price caps because it would further reduce their energy costs. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen is currently discussing the matter with the finance ministers of the Group of 20 (G20) countries.

[The global cumulative number of confirmed cases of new crown exceeds 555.4 million]

The latest data released by the World Health Organization on the 213th shows that the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new crown in the world has reached 555,446,890.

The latest data from the WHO website shows that as of 17:16 Central European Time 13 (23:16 Beijing time), the number of confirmed cases worldwide increased by 980,691 from the previous day, reaching 555,446,890; the number of deaths increased by 1,321 , reaching 6,353,692 cases.

[Deutsche Lufthansa announced that it will cancel another 2,000 flights]

On the 13th local time, Germany's largest airline Lufthansa announced that due to lack of manpower, the company will cancel another 2,000 flights, including domestic flights in Germany and international flights. flight.

A spokesman for the company said that by the end of August, the company's Frankfurt and Munich airport hubs will cancel a total of 2,000 flights. This is the third batch of flights canceled by the company this year. Previously, Lufthansa had announced that it would cancel 3,000 flights from July to August. On July 7, the company announced that it would cancel 770 flights starting from July 14.

[Federal Reserve Beige Book of Economic Conditions: The outlook for future GDP growth is mostly negative]

Federal Reserve Economic Conditions Beige Book : Overall, economic activity has expanded at a moderate pace since mid-May; however, there are Several regions reported growing signs of slowing demand, with respondents in five regions saying they were concerned about an increased risk of a recession. Expectations for future economic growth in the reporting regions are mostly negative, with respondents noting that demand is expected to weaken further over the next six to 12 months. Significant price increases were reported across all consumption stages in all regions, although three-quarters noted a fall in prices for construction inputs such as timber and steel.

Positive factors affecting oil prices

[ Hungary enters a state of energy emergency and plans to ban energy exports]

On the 13th local time, the Hungarian government declared an energy emergency. The main measures include banning energy exports and canceling energy prices for households with higher than average consumption. upper limit, plans to increase domestic production of natural gas , etc. This package of measures will come into effect in August to ensure energy supply during the winter.

[The United States does not rule out the use of force as a last resort against Iran ]

On the evening of the 13th local time, US President Biden , who was visiting Israel, said in an interview with local TV media Channel 12 that the United States did not rule out the use of force as a last resort against Iran . Use force as a last resort against Iran.

According to local Israeli media reports, Biden said in an interview on the Iran nuclear issue that he believed that former US President Trump ’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement was a huge mistake, which (led to) Iran’s We are closer than ever to having nuke . Biden said the United States could still reach a deal with Iran to reduce its nuclear program while taking action (against Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps).

[ Goldman Sachs expects crude oil market supply to continue to be tight]

Goldman Sachs said that crude oil demand continues to exceed supply, and there is no sign that the economic slowdown is enough to balance market supply and demand in the short term.Damien, head of Goldman Sachs’ energy research department? Courvalin said that the premium of Brent crude oil spot to futures reached a record high, indicating that the tight supply situation at the current price continues to exist. "The spot market is still screaming that supply is very, very tight," he said.

Courvalin said that even if Biden persuades OPEC to increase supply, the situation will only be temporarily alleviated and cannot solve the problem of insufficient investment in the entire energy market. He said the recent decline in crude oil futures on recession fears has heightened the risk of underinvestment as the current price curve hampers much-needed production growth.

Overall, short oil prices have been supported by concerns about the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes to control inflation and the negative outlook for the U.S. economy. However, tensions between the United States and Iran may limit the decline in oil prices. In the short term, oil prices may be mainly affected by Biden Middle East trip As a result, Biden will visit Saudi Arabia on Friday.

This article comes from Huitong.com