Starting in June, a "battle for Luhansk" continued on and off for nearly a month. The Russian army first gnawed the "big bone" of Severodonetsk, and then took Lisichansk with lightning speed. At this point, this battle has come to an end.
The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the Russian Armed Forces and the Luhansk Armed Forces have completely controlled Lisichansk and its surrounding residential areas, the largest of which are Bilogorivka, Novodruzhesk, and Mallory Yazantsevo and Bela Yagora.
Next, I will analyze the overall strategic thinking of the Russian army and the main offensive routes everywhere.
In general, the core is to run through the idea of "making dumplings" and continue to promote the goals of the third stage.
The Russian army captured Severodonetsk and Lisichansk, two cities located on the east and west banks of the Severodonetsk River respectively. In conjunction with the Russian army's resumed offensive from the Izyum direction, the Ukrainian army's dumpling stuffing will No more chance. At the same time, as these two cities were captured by the Russian army, they could then free up their hands to deal with the Ukrainian army in Kharkov , Slavyansk and other areas. At that time, when the Russian army achieves the goal of the third stage, it can form a "pin" offensive, and finally form an encirclement, controlling the Ukrainian army in the western part of Kiev and Ukraine , further curbing its effective strength.
is moving step by step on the main offensive routes, and the Russian army will focus on advancing to the northern region of Donetsk.
In fact, we said in the article "The Russian Army Has Achieved a Major Victory, But Beware of Traps" that next, the Russian army will probably push the entire defense line to the northern Donetsk area and push the main areas in the eastern Ukraine area. The battlefield moved to Kramatorsk, Slavyansk and other areas. At the same time, the Russian army may have a direct exchange of fire with the Ukrainian army advancing south from Kharkov.
In addition, emphasis must be placed on controlling the occupied areas to prevent counterattacks and stabilize the situation.
On July 5, local time, the fighting between the Russian and Ukrainian armies continued in the border area of Lugansk . At the same time, according to information from the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Russian army is concentrating its efforts to establish complete control over the Luhansk region and taking measures to try to restore transportation infrastructure in the rear. It can be said that Russia is more concerned about controlling the occupied areas than blindly advancing the front.
Compared with Russia's layer-by-layer advance on the frontal battlefield, Ukraine did not take advantage of its flexibility in breaking up into parts, and used " Seamaster " and other large-scale killer weapons to effectively counterattack the areas occupied by the Russian army. Instead, there is a situation where "passive" becomes "more passive".
However, Alestovich, an adviser to the Ukrainian President’s Office, started “performing”.
He said that the Lisichansk-Severodonetsk defensive battle was an "extremely successful" military operation conducted by the Ukrainian army. We attracted and severely damaged the main Russian force, providing the Ukrainian army with offensive resources in other areas. condition.
In addition, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces announced that the Ukrainian armed forces in Zaporozhye Oblast have begun to equip and use the American "Haimas" multiple rocket launcher system. The arrival of "Haimas" makes Ukraine particularly excited. Even the Ukrainian presidential adviser emphasized to the outside world that it currently has four Seamas rocket launchers . They will completely change Ukraine's destiny and even defeat Russia within 20 days.
But unfortunately, the "exquisite words" did not substantially help Ukraine win on the frontal battlefield. But "Haimas" stole the show.
Recently, Ukraine used the "Haimas" rocket launcher system to attack Russia's Izyum frontline command post. Various Russian military vehicles were bombed. At the same time, more than 30 bombings were launched against one of the Russian military bases in Melitopol occupied by the Russian army, successfully destroying most valuable targets.
However, things soon turned around.
htmlOn July 6, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed two US-made "Haimas" multiple rocket launcher systems and two ammunition depots in Donetsk. Subsequently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces denied the news that Russia had destroyed two "Haimas" rocket launcher systems, saying that "Russia is actively spreading reports about the destruction of the 'Haimas' rocket launcher system."Although this incident has become the "Rashomon" incident in the Russia-Ukraine war, judging from the results of Ukraine's possession of "Haimas" alone, it is still not enough to reverse the situation on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield. Because the change on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield does not lie in these two powerful weapons at all, but in the Ukrainian army has lost the "decisive and effective force in counterattack."
Looking back at the early stages of the Russo-Ukrainian war, the Ukrainian army's outstanding performance on the battlefield, Much of the credit is due to the initiative shown by well-trained personnel.
Since 2014, the Ukrainian army has gained valuable practical experience in fighting militia forces in the Donbas region. Years of war have left Ukraine with a large number of experienced veterans. With them as the main body, they formed the backbone of the counterattack against the Russian army. In addition, these soldiers can quickly take over artillery, tanks and other support systems, which is crucial for the Ukrainian army to resist Russian attacks in multiple areas.
However, after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, the defeat of the Ukrainian army raised two important questions.
First, it continued to suffer serious casualties, resulting in an extremely weak military strength.
In June 2022, Ukrainian officials estimated that as many as 100-200 soldiers were killed in operations every day, and the loss ratio of Ukrainian regular troops and technical personnel was likely to be high. In order to make up for the casualties, the Ukrainian army can only recruit new soldiers. But these recruits and volunteers have little military experience and must take longer to train.
However, the Ukrainian army still faces two major obstacles in training these new recruits.
First of all, the Ukrainian army originally established a team of professional non-commissioned officers to serve as the backbone of the army, relying on them to efficiently perform combat tasks and train Ukrainian soldiers. However, after the outbreak of the war, the number of non-commissioned officers was greatly reduced, and the replacement of veterans by the reserve forces did not solve the problem of insufficient professional non-commissioned officers. As the war continued, Ukrainian soldiers did not receive adequate training under the guidance of non-commissioned officers, resulting in a significant decline in their ability to complete tasks.
Secondly, the Ukrainian army is eager to replenish its frontline troops, resulting in recruit training being maintained at a minimum level. But this level cannot match the advanced weapons systems that the Ukrainian army relies on. Under the influence of these two situations, the military literacy of Ukrainian soldiers continued to decline, and they suffered repeated defeats on the battlefield.
Second, the equipment losses of the Ukrainian army have affected its continued combat capabilities.
html On June 15, senior Ukrainian military officials estimated that some Ukrainian military equipment losses were as high as 50%. It is reported that due to battlefield losses and logistical maintenance problems, some Ukrainian troops may no longer be able to receive support from motor vehicles.Although we have the impression that Ukraine has received a lot of military weapons assistance, in fact it is unable to make ends meet. Whether it is Ukrainian soldiers exchanging rocket launchers for cans, abandoning weapons during a "tactical retreat", or equipment transactions on the dark web, these reasons have led to the weakening of Ukraine's military strength.
At the same time, although the West provides some equipment, the Ukrainian army still mainly relies on Soviet-era weapons stocks. Moreover, the war caused the destruction of Ukraine's defense and military industry. Now Ukraine's ability to maintain, repair and produce heavy weapons and ammunition is seriously insufficient. What's more important is that the use of Western-aided weapon systems requires a long period of training, and current training content can only focus on minimum on-site operations. If things go on like this, the lack of professionals to maintain damaged equipment will eventually lead to these precision weapons quickly losing their combat capabilities for various reasons. At that time, this may become the straw that breaks the camel's back.
For Ukraine, it has now reached the most dangerous moment. If these problems are not resolved, no matter how much Zelenskiy "shows his acting skills", the situation on the front battlefield between Russia and Ukraine will be difficult to change.
