Summary
Basic logic:
Bullish:
① The low arrival of cargo has kept inventory in Qingdao at a low level and the inflection point of inventory accumulation has been delayed repeatedly. In the short term, natural rubber will also be supported by low inventory.
Neutral:
① The rainy weather in Thailand's production areas has weakened, and the local new rubber output is expected to increase during the peak production season. However, domestic production areas and some northern production areas are gradually entering a cut-off period, and the supply of natural rubber in the later period Materials will decline.
② The order performance of the tire terminal market is still weak. However, the recent production enthusiasm of tire companies is acceptable, and the performance of natural rubber is expected to remain stable in the short term.
In the short term, the weakening of rainy weather in Southeast Asian production areas has strengthened expectations for short-term supply-side improvement. However, the "La Nina" phenomenon may still have an impact on major production areas such as Thailand. As some northern production areas gradually begin to stop harvesting, in the later period The supply of natural rubber will gradually decline; natural rubber inventories in Qingdao continue to maintain a destocking trend, and the turning point of inventory accumulation may continue to be delayed due to delays in shipping schedules. Low inventories will continue to provide support for rubber prices. Generally speaking, we expect that in the short term, affected by the expected increase in new rubber output in Thailand's peak production season, natural rubber will mainly operate in shock adjustments. In the later period, with the gradual expansion of the scope of production areas and the impact of "La Niña" weather, Natural rubber is still expected to run warmer in the medium to long term.
operation suggestions: recommends that RU2205 wait and see in the short term, and focus on 14100-14200 yuan/ton below. Radicals will establish multiple orders appropriately on dips, pay attention to controlling positions and stop losses.
Uncertain risks: The global epidemic situation, weather conditions in Southeast Asian production areas, tire companies' start-up status, and inventory changes in Qingdao
Market review
Double rubber futures prices continued to fluctuate and fall this week. As of December 10, the main natural rubber contract RU2205 of the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 14,490 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from December 3; the main natural rubber contract NR2202 of the last energy No. 20 rubber closed at 11,300 yuan/ton, It dropped by 140 yuan/ton from December 3. In terms of
spot prices, the spot prices of domestic latex and No. 20 rubber also experienced shocks and fell. As of December 10, the spot price of all latex in Shanghai was 13,300 yuan/ton, and the average price during the week was 13,415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 475 yuan/ton from the average price of the previous week; the spot price of all latex in Shandong was 13,300 yuan/ton. , the average price during the week was 13,415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan/ton from the average price of the previous week. As of December 10, the spot benchmark price of STR20 in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was US$1,755/ton, and the average price during the week was US$1,759/ton, a decrease of US$35/ton from the average price of the previous week.
Second supply and demand fundamental analysis
1. Tire production starts increased slightly
Domestic tire production started increased slightly this week. Some manufacturers that had stopped production in the early stage resumed production. Considering that possible environmental protection production restrictions in winter may have an impact on the start of production, companies have been highly motivated to produce in the near future. . In the week of December 9, the weekly operating rate of domestic all-steel tires was 64.29%, an increase of 1.12 percentage points from the previous week, and a decrease of 8.88 percentage points from the same period in 2020. The weekly operating rate of semi-steel tires was 63.77%, an increase of 1.12 percentage points from the previous week. An increase of 1.32 percentage points and a decrease of 5.55 percentage points compared with the same period in 2020.
2. The performance of the passenger car market in November was still weak
According to the latest data from the Passenger Car Association, in November 2021, the retail sales of the passenger car market were 1.816 million units, a month-on-month increase of 6%, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%, and a decrease from the same period in 2019. 6%. From January to November 2021, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market reached 18.041 million units, an increase of 6.1% compared with the same period in 2020, and the growth rate dropped by 2 percentage points from January to October.
3. Futures inventories remain accumulated, with inventories in Qingdao declining slightly
As of December 10, the natural rubber futures warehouse receipt inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 175,510 tons, an increase of 20,980 tons from December 3, and an increase of 41,880 tons from the same period in 2020; the previous issue Energy No. 20 TSR futures warehouse receipt inventory is 50,138 tons, an increase of 3,225 tons from December 3, and an increase of 5,645 tons from the same period in 2020. Last week, natural rubber stocks in Qingdao continued to maintain a destocking trend, but the extent of destocking was small. According to Zhuochuang Information, as of December 3, the total inventory of natural rubber samples in Qingdao was 318,000 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons from the previous week; of which the inventory in the bonded area was 65,200 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from the previous week, and the general trade inventory was 252,800 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from the previous week.
4. The price of raw materials in the Hat Yai market fell sharply, and the domestic market fluctuated within a narrow range.
As of December 10, the price of glue in Hat Yai, Thailand, was 52.5 baht/kg, and the weekly average price was 55.3 baht/kg. The average price dropped by 4.6% from the previous week. The price of cup glue is 47.85 baht/kg, and the weekly average price is 47.98 baht/kg, which is a decrease of 0.68 baht/kg from the previous week. As of December 10, the domestic price of cup glue in Yunnan was 11,350 yuan/ton, and the weekly average price was 11,370 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of glue in Hainan was 13,000 yuan/ton, and the weekly average price was 11,370 yuan/ton. 12,480 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan/ton from the previous week.
Three analysis of long and short positions in the main contract
Both long and short positions in the main natural rubber contract RU2205 increased this week. As of December 10, the top 20 long positions of the RU2205 contract held a total of 95,942 lots, an increase of 9,614 lots from December 3, and the top 20 short positions held a total of 140,254 lots, an increase of 16,462 lots from December 3, with a net short position of 44,312 lots, an increase of 5651 lots compared with December 3. From the perspective of position distribution, the concentration of long positions in the RU2201 contract this week decreased, while the concentration of short positions increased. As of December 10, the total positions of the top 5 long-term RU2205 contract positions accounted for 41.83% of the total positions of the top 20, a decrease of 0.27% from December 3; the total positions of the top 5 short-term positions accounted for 41.83% of the total positions of the top 20. 47.15%, an increase of 1.95% from December 3.
Four price difference analysis
1. Natural rubber futures price difference (spot - futures)
From December 6 to December 10, the price difference between the main natural rubber spot and futures contracts fluctuated between 1,880 yuan/ton and 2,025 tons; the average price difference during the week It was 1,965 yuan/ton, an increase of 386 yuan/ton from the week before the holiday. On December 10, the current price difference of natural rubber futures was 2,010 yuan/ton, which was 15 yuan/ton narrower than the previous trading day.
2. Natural rubber intertemporal price difference (RU01 contract-RU05 contract)
From December 6 to December 10, the price difference between the RU2201 contract and the RU2205 contract fluctuated between -200 yuan/ton and -225 yuan/ton; the average price difference during the week It was -220 yuan/ton, which was 18 yuan/ton lower than the week before the holiday. On December 10, the price difference between 1-5 natural rubber was -225 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
3. The price difference between all latex and No. 20 rubber (all latex - No. 20 rubber)
From December 6 to December 10, the spot price difference between all latex and No. 20 rubber fluctuated between 2087.85 yuan/ton and 2382.11 yuan/ton; weekly The average price difference was 2,216.57 yuan/ton, narrowing by 132.72 yuan/ton from the previous week. On December 10, the spot price difference between full latex and No. 20 rubber was 2,120.3 yuan/ton, an increase of 32.45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
From December 6 to December 10, the price difference between the main contract of natural rubber and the main contract of No. 20 rubber fluctuated between 3,190 yuan/ton and 3,320 yuan/ton; the weekly average price difference was 3,253 yuan/ton, an increase of 52 yuan from the previous week. /Ton. On December 10, the price difference between the main contracts of full latex and No. 20 rubber futures was 3,190 yuan/ton, which was 10 yuan/ton narrower than the previous trading day.
Five market outlook and investment strategy
In terms of supply, the recent rainy weather in Thailand's production areas has weakened, and local new rubber output is expected to increase during the traditional peak production season. However, domestic production areas have gradually entered a period of suspension of cutting, and natural rubber production has will gradually decrease. In terms of demand, the overall domestic tire production has fluctuated within a narrow range. Tire companies are highly motivated to cope with possible winter environmental protection production restrictions in the future. Natural rubber demand performance is expected to remain stable. In terms of inventory, inventory in Qingdao continues to show a trend of destocking. Although the initial value of natural rubber imports in November increased significantly month-on-month and the increase far exceeded market expectations, it is reported that the current shipping delay problem has not been resolved, and Qingdao inventory is expected to be difficult to recover in the short term. Obviously accumulated, low inventories will continue to provide support for natural rubber. In the short term, the weakening of rainy weather in Southeast Asian production areas has strengthened expectations for short-term supply-side improvement. However, the "La Niña" phenomenon may still have an impact on major production areas such as Thailand. As some northern production areas gradually begin to stop harvesting, natural production in the later period will Rubber supply will gradually decline; natural rubber inventories in Qingdao continue to maintain a destocking trend, and the turning point of inventory accumulation may continue to be delayed due to delays in shipping schedules. Low inventories will continue to provide support for rubber prices.Generally speaking, we expect that in the short term, affected by the expected increase in new rubber output in Thailand's peak production season, natural rubber will mainly operate in shock adjustments. In the later period, with the gradual expansion of the scope of production areas and the impact of "La Niña" weather, Natural rubber is still expected to run warmer in the medium to long term.
strategy
recommends that RU2205 wait and see in the short term, and focus on 14100-14200 yuan/ton below. Radicals will establish multiple orders appropriately on dips, pay attention to controlling positions and stop losses.
This article comes from CFC Energy Chemicals Research
