Taiwan is an integral part of China, and the People's Liberation Army has the confidence and strength to unify Taiwan. However, the People's Liberation Army's military reunification of Taiwan was based on the fact that it had touched a red line and had no choice but to do so.
However, the friendly signals previously sent by the People's Liberation Army to Taiwan have been regarded by some people as "weak and can be bullied." Taiwan's war correspondent Liang Dongping once made an astonishing statement, claiming: "China has fired 30,000 missiles, but none of them have been able to land on the island of Taiwan."
And his "reference material" comes from the Iraq war launched unilaterally by the US-UK coalition in 2003, bypassing the UN Security Council authorization. Among them, "the US military launched more than 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles, and only one person was killed." , which made Liang Dongping crazily clamor that the mainland's 30,000 missiles could not clear the way for the amphibious landing troops.
However, some netizens asked, what is the capital of that he is clamoring for? Or how much do you look down on mainland China’s missiles?
(Taiwanese war correspondent Liang Dongping participated in the program)
1 What is the basis for the clamor?
It mainly comes from two aspects, namely Taiwan's proud air defense firepower network, and the "foreign aid" with strong military strength - the United States.
One, Taiwan is proud of its air defense firepower network.
In fact, Taiwan began to build an air defense firepower network very early. It took decades and hundreds of billions of dollars to build a long-range, medium-range, and short-range air defense firepower network. Its air defense missile density is even second only to that of Israel in the Middle East. .
Taiwan's current long-range air defense firepower network is mainly composed of the US-made Patriot 2 and Patriot 3 air defense missile systems , as well as Taiwan's self-developed "Tiangong 1", "Tiangong 2" and "Tiangong" Type 3 air defense missile system .
(the "Patriot" 2 air defense missile being launched)
Patriot 2: can launch MIM-104C and MIM-104D/E air defense missiles , the former is mainly used to intercept medium and high altitude fighters, and the latter can specifically intercept Tactical ballistic missiles also include cruise missiles with a range of 600 kilometers. It can be seen that the Patriot Type 2 has certain anti-missile capabilities.
Patriot 3 type: the main air defense missile in active service of the US military. It is mainly used to intercept ballistic missiles . It has certain regional anti-missile capabilities. It mainly launches MIM-104F air defense missiles . It can reach the maximum speed of 5 Mach . It can intercept targets at a distance of up to 420 kilometers, and can intercept incoming targets at a minimum distance of 4,500 meters; its maximum shooting height is 415,000 meters, and the theoretical maximum shooting height is about 424,000 meters. Taiwan has also imported a certain number of Patriot 3 anti-aircraft missiles .
(the "Patriot" 3 air defense missile being launched)
Tiangong 1 type: The interceptor missile it uses can intercept incoming targets up to 60 kilometers at a speed of 3.5 Mach , and the maximum shooting height is 3,000 meters. .
Tiangong 2 type: It is improved on the basis of Tiangong 1 type (both have American technology). Its interceptor can intercept incoming targets of 70 to 80 kilometers at a speed of 4 Mach .
However, Tiangong 1 and Tiangong 2 only have the ability to intercept fighter aircraft and do not have the ability to intercept ballistic missiles.
(Taiwan’s self-developed Tiangong 2 air defense missile, but it does not have anti-missile capabilities)
Tiangong 3 type : Based on Tiangong 2, Taiwan digested and absorbed the related technologies of Patriot 2 and designed a can not only intercept a variety of fighter aircraft, but also intercept tactical ballistic missiles and anti-aircraft missiles.
The Taiwan military claims that the "Tiangong" 3 missile can intercept incoming fighters at a distance of ,200 kilometers at a speed of about 5 Mach , as well as intercept tactical ballistic missiles of 5 to 30 kilometers , and its interception altitude is between 30 and 25,000. rice.
However, these parameters mentioned by the Taiwan military are likely to have a lot of water content. Has the performance of Tiangong 3 really exceeded that of Patriot 3?
In fact, outsiders believe that the single-shot interception success rate of Tiangong 3 is about 70%, and the double-shot interception success rate is over 90%. The single-shot interception probability of Patriot 3 is about 80%, and the double-shot interception probability is about 95%. Therefore, it can be seen that the performance of Tiangong 3 is not as good as Patriot 3.
(In 2022, the Taiwan military tested the self-developed Tiangong 3 air defense missile at Jiupeng Base in Pingtung. It did not hit the target the first time, but hit the target the second time)
As above, in the Taiwan military’s long-range air defense firepower network, the real Only the US-made Patriot 3 and Tiangong 3 are capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, but Tiangong 3 often has problems. The
medium-range air defense firepower network is mainly composed of , which consists of about 1,000 Hawker air defense missiles and ship-based standard 1 and standard 2 air defense missiles .
(American-made Hawk anti-aircraft missiles can intercept fighter aircraft and have certain anti-missile capabilities, but the US military has already replaced them with Patriot series missiles)
Hawk anti-aircraft missiles can intercept as far as 41 at a speed of 2.8 Mach The incoming target of kilometers (the minimum range is about 26 kilometers ), the maximum shooting height is about 18,000 meters , and the minimum shooting height is 30 meters .
It has the advantages of long range, strong lethality (75kg warhead), strong anti-interference ability, etc., as well as excellent medium and low-altitude air defense performance and anti-missile capabilities. and its guidance system can guide multiple interceptors to attack 2 incoming missiles.
standard type 1 is mainly equipped on the Taiwan Navy's 2 Perry-class frigates and 8 Success-class frigates . Its maximum range is about 38 kilometers , its maximum shooting height is about 19800 meters , and its maximum speed is 2 Mach. .
(Taiwan Navy's "Keelung" destroyer with hull number 1801, which is equipped with Standard Type 2 air defense missiles)
Standard Type 2 is mainly installed on the Taiwan Navy's four "Keelung" class destroyers . Its latest model The maximum range is about 160 kilometers, the maximum shooting height is about 19800 meters, and the maximum speed is about 3 Mach .
Both Standard 1 and Standard 2 have certain regional air defense capabilities, but the number of these two ship-based air defense missiles is relatively small, of which Standard 2 only has 148. More importantly, these four destroyers are deployed in eastern Taiwan It is difficult to intercept ballistic missiles attacking the west coast of the Su'ao military port. Only by quietly driving them to the Taiwan Strait can they exert their maximum combat performance, which may be hit by the People's Liberation Army's anti-ship missiles.
The short-range air defense firepower network mainly consists of air defense missiles such as Xiaoxie, Sparrow and Stinger missiles, but these missiles do not have the ability to intercept ballistic missiles.
(Standard 2 anti-aircraft missiles being launched)
In summary, the only anti-aircraft missiles that can really play a role in Taiwan are the US-made Patriot 3 and the half-baked Tiangong 3, as well as the Hawker anti-aircraft missiles, Standard 1 and Standard 2 anti-aircraft missiles. .
refers to the standard that two interceptors are needed to intercept one ballistic missile. To intercept 30,000 ballistic missiles, at least 60,000 air defense interceptors are needed. But does the Taiwan military have so many interceptors now?
Second, "foreign aid" - American .
In fact, the United States is a guy who can't afford to do anything early without profit. The People's Liberation Army has already learned the lessons of the US Seventh Fleet's entry into the Taiwan Strait and developed a variety of asymmetric weapons Dongfeng 21D and Dongfeng 26 anti-ship ballistic missiles , which are designed to attack large surface ships and can force them to stay 2,000 kilometers away from the mainland coastline. Prevent it from interfering with the People's Liberation Army's actions related to the military reunification of Taiwan.
2 The main role of ballistic missiles in war
Ballistic missiles are mainly used to carry out precise attacks on the enemy's most valuable targets, such as: airports, arsenals, radar stations, command centers and anti-aircraft missile positions , etc. Knock it out or paralyze it so that it cannot regain its combat effectiveness in a short period of time.
(Dongfeng 21D is the first anti-ship ballistic missile developed by China that can attack large surface ships including aircraft carriers)
To put it bluntly, means that the Rocket Force first uses ballistic missiles to attack key targets to gain air supremacy for the Air Force and Navy. , sea control, and even pave the way for the rapid landing of amphibious landing troops. is not to let the Rocket Force do all the work alone. This is obviously impossible.
Once Taiwan does something extraordinary, the People's Liberation Army will be forced to use force to unify. It is still unknown how many ballistic missiles the People's Liberation Army will use during its military reunification of Taiwan!
But we can make assumptions based on Taiwan’s existing high-value targets and roughly estimate how many missiles are needed.
Taiwan currently has about 10 airports, 5 command centers, dozens of radar stations and anti-aircraft missile sites, and some arms depots. Let's temporarily count it as and several hundred high-value military objects .
(Taiwan Army Hengshan Command Center)
Regarding how many missiles are needed to paralyze an airport, we can refer to the 2020 Iran attack on the US military base for analysis.
In 2020, in order to retaliate against the assassination of senior generals by the US military, Iran used 10 "Conqueror-313" short-range surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to attack the Assad Air Force Base in Iraq . 10 missiles all hit the target .
Although the U.S. military later said that the air force base attacked by Iran did not cause casualties and the damage to the air base was very small, the satellite pictures seemed to expose the lies of the U.S. military.
(The red circle in the picture shows that at least 4 military facilities were destroyed by missiles)
Satellite photos from the US "Planet Laboratory" show that multiple military facilities such as the hangar and runway of the Assad Air Force Base were hit by Iranian missiles.
If in actual combat, based on the destruction effect of Iranian missiles, it is very likely that a single-runway airport will be paralyzed for about a few hours.
You must know that Iran's "Conqueror-313" missile is a surface-to-surface missile that can carry a 500 kilogram warhead, has a range of about 500 kilometers, and a circular probability error of about 200 meters.
The People's Liberation Army Rocket Force has the powerful " Dongfeng Express ", which has specially prepared Dongfeng 11 and Dongfeng 15 series express packages, as well as Dongfeng 16 and Changjian 10 missiles for "Taiwan independence" elements.
(domestic Dongfeng 11 ballistic missile )
Since Dongfeng 11 and Dongfeng 15 were in service earlier, their circular probability error is about 200 meters . The latest Dongfeng 16 and Changjian 10 are equipped with the Beidou navigation satellite system independently developed by my country, and their circular probability error is about 50 meters .
Don’t underestimate this 150-meter gap. The missile performs a precision strike mission. The smaller the circular probability error, the higher the performance of the missile. Using this hit accuracy to hit the runway is almost accurate.
If such a standard is used to destroy high-value military targets such as airports, it will take about twenty missiles to paralyze them for several hours, and may even cause them to lose their combat effectiveness.
(US-made Patriot 3 anti-aircraft missiles)
Although the Taiwan military has US-made Patriot 3 anti-aircraft missiles , its combat effectiveness is far less powerful than that of the US military. So to destroy or paralyze hundreds of high-value military targets of the Taiwan military, it would take about 10,000 missiles to break through the sky.
Taiwan's air defense firepower network faces such a blow from the mainland Rocket Force. It is estimated that it will be difficult to continue to exert its combat effectiveness before it will be exhausted, and it will be difficult to pose a relatively large threat to amphibious landings.
You can imagine that within a few hours, fighter planes cannot take off for combat, radar cannot detect incoming targets, and air defense missiles cannot aim and intercept incoming targets. Then the war is likely to become one-sided and one-sided. Air raid hunting.
("Mobile Changbai" radar equipped with the "Tiangong" 3 system)
3 Air strikes can paralyze a country
In 1999, the United States-led NATO army conducted a 78-day raid on military targets and infrastructure in the territory of Yugoslavia. The bombing caused tens of thousands of casualties and economic losses of up to 200 billion US dollars, and the country was nearly paralyzed.
Compared with some major military powers, Yugoslavia is a small country with no major strategic depth. At the same time, the air defense firepower network is relatively weak. Facing the powerful NATO army, it is difficult to form a sustained and effective air defense firepower network. It can almost be left to its own devices. Its air strikes paralyzed the country.
In summary, Liang Dongping’s statement that 30,000 missiles cannot guarantee the People’s Liberation Army’s amphibious landing is completely a fallacy. It's just a military novice trying to fool everyone. Nowadays, in the context of high-tech warfare, the People's Liberation Army's "military reunification" will arrive with wind and thunder to complete the reunification with the overwhelming momentum of Mount Tai. Therefore, I advise some people not to misjudge the friendly signals sent by the mainland, let alone try to challenge the mainland’s bottom line.
