A hundred years later, all the details are so similar. As the old saying goes, history does not repeat itself, but it always rhymes! But from the perspective of the Western world, the "Russian-Japanese War" began in the 19th century in Asian countries. It was the first example of

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In the past few days, I have read a lot of books on the " Russo-Japanese War ", and I can't help but think of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in front of me. After a hundred years, all the details are so similar, as the old saying goes, history will not repeat itself, but it always rhymes! The weak Japan can win Tsarist Russia , Ukraine can replicate the miracle?

Our textbook describes it this way, the "Russian-Japanese War" refers to a war between Japan and Russia on the land of Northeast China between 1904 and 1905 in order to compete for control of China's Liaodong Peninsula and Korean Peninsula. It ended with Russia's defeat.

But from the perspective of the Western world, the "Russian-Japanese War" was the first example since the 19th century that Asian countries defeated European countries, yellow countries defeated white countries, and non-Christian countries defeated Christian countries. After this war , Europe and the United States completely changed the view of Japan.

In order to win, the Japanese opened up three invisible battlefields, namely, financial war, espionage war, and diplomatic war. The Japanese who dominate these three battlefields are: Takahashi Korekiyo, Akashi Genjiro, and Kaneko Kentaro .

Let’s first talk about the background of the Russo-Japanese War.

Tsarist Russia back then was, like Russia today, a second-rate power in technology and a superpower in scale. Tsarist Russia was the "European military police" that no one dared to ignore.

As far as the navy is concerned, the number of warships in Tsarist Russia is three times that of Japan, and the quality is no less than the Japanese navy. I checked the information on Russian warships. Although they are not world-class, they are also independently built. In " Battle of Tsushima ", Tsarist Russia lost 7 10,000-ton ships, among which 4 were Borodino-class battleships with a displacement of more than 14,000 tons.

120 years ago, Tsarist Russia was able to build 10,000-ton steel warships in St. Petersburg . In 1968, more than 60 years after the Russo-Japanese War, New China completed the construction of its first self-designed 10,000-ton ship, the Oriental. Although there is no comparison between different eras, it is enough to show that Tsarist Russia at that time was really powerful.

Tsarist Russia is far stronger than Japan in terms of size and industrial strength. However, the Far East is too far from Moscow. Russia only has 100,000 troops in the Northeast, but their Trans-Siberian Railway will soon It is about to be completed. By then, Russian troops and supplies can be continuously transported to the Far East.

Pre-war Russian comics

At that time, there was also an atmosphere of contempt for Japan permeating within Russia. The Russian press described Japan as a weak, jaundiced monkey, fleeing in panic before the Russian iron fist. According to the Russians , they are defending the entire European civilization and fighting back against the "Yellow Peril" - a new group of Mongolians armed with modern technology.

The Japanese knew that time was on the side of Tsarist Russia, so they chose to start the war as soon as possible, that familiar taste of studying the national destiny. At that time, although Japan had already begun industrialization, almost all its warships were European goods. It was mainly made in the United Kingdom, and just like Ukraine today, it concentrated weapons from European and American countries. It is worth mentioning that the "Zhenyuan", the flagship of Japan's 4th Fleet, was the "trophy" that Japan snatched from China during the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-1896. It was once one of the battleships of the Beiyang Fleet of the Qing Dynasty, with a displacement of 7,330 tons. Built in Germany.

Japan United Fleet flagship list

Japan's start of the war was a big gamble, but with the help of various miracles, weak Japan actually defeated the polar bear , and Japan won the gamble again. Especially in the Battle of Tsushima, two-thirds of the ships in the Russian Second Pacific Fleet were destroyed and almost the entire army was wiped out; while the Japanese only lost three torpedo boats. This is one of the naval battles with the greatest disparity in losses between the two sides in the history of naval battles .

After the war, Japan obtained a Korean Peninsula and half of Sakhalin Island, and took over Russia's rights and interests in Manchuria. However, due to the intervention of Roosevelt , no war reparations were obtained, and Japan's finances were on the verge of collapse. For Japan, is not only a thrilling victory, but also puts Japan on the path of no return of "the bigger the bet, the bigger the bet, and ultimately the loss."

01|Financial War

Before the war, the emperor summoned Ito Hirobumi and talked in secret all night. Based on the subsequent evolution of the situation, we can roughly deduce the content of the conversation between the two. The core plan is to send "Takahashi Korekiyo" to London to launch a "financial war" against Russia.

Korekiyo Takahashi was born in poverty. He wandered in the United States when he was young and was almost sold as a slave. Later, he returned to Japan and made a living by teaching English. After some hard work, he became a Japanese banker. During his tenure, he implemented an expansionary fiscal policy and was known as "Japanese Keynes".

Ito Hirobumi gave "Takahashi Korekiyo" two tasks. First, raise funds for the war. Secondly, when entering a protracted war, we must ensure that we can continue to sell bonds.

The world at that time was a jungle society where the jungle was dominated by the jungle. War is an industry in itself, and Britain is the financing center for warmongers around the world. Bonds must be issued with the help of European bankers, just like how "unicorn" companies are now listed, to increase the subscription rate and increase the subscription price as much as possible to obtain the maximum financing scale.

At that time, the interest rate on bonds issued by European and American governments was usually 3%, and the maximum was 5% for those with poor credit. In the 1870s, Zuo Zongtang also used HSBC to finance his recovery of Xinjiang. The coupon rate at that time was as high as 8%. Because the Qing Dynasty was in decline, no one was willing to borrow money if the interest rate was not high.

At that time, the Japanese treasury had only 117 million yen left. After deducting the foreign debt payable, there was only 50 million yen. Japan’s borrowing plan is to borrow 100 million yen first. But can with this little money be able to fight a polar bear?

Japan estimates that this amount of money can last up to six months. After the war, we can raise taxes, borrow domestic debt, grit our teeth, and maybe we can survive another six months. With Japan's funds, we can only fight for a year at most. After all, there is a bottom line for domestic tax increases. If the bottom line is exceeded, trouble will occur.

In 1894, the Sino-Japanese War of 1894 between Japan and the Qing Dynasty lasted only 10 months and cost 220 million yen in military expenditures. Although it was three times the fiscal revenue of that year, it only accounted for 20% of Japan's GDP at that time. Unlike we once thought that "Japan is doing its best as a country", Japan still has some spare capacity.

According to the scale at that time, it is conservatively estimated that the military expenditure against Russia, even if it was a quick victory, would be at least twice as much, or 450 million yen.

Comparing Japan's national treasury revenue at that time, there was a huge gap in military spending. When the accounts were settled at the end of the war, the Japanese Army spent 1.22 billion yen and the Navy spent 240 million yen. Including other various expenses, the total amount is 1.95 billion yen. Japan spent a total of nearly 2 billion yen on the Russo-Japanese War, equivalent to more than 60% of the 3 billion yen GDP that year.

Korekiyo Takahashi’s idea is to first make the PPT beautiful so that Europeans can believe that Japan will definitely win! First, borrow the first batch of loans at high interest rates. When the war breaks out, you won't have to worry about too much debt. You can just borrow and repay your debts at lower interest rates. Foreigners are rich, but not stupid. If Japan challenges Tsarist Russia, Russia will win no matter what. Why should they risk offending Russia by lending money to weak Japan? At that time, Japan will be subjugated and cannot pay back the money. What will we do?

Korekiyo Takahashi, who was in charge of borrowing money, although he was fluent in English, eloquent and did a professional road show, he still ran into obstacles everywhere and investors were unwilling to pay.

But sometimes, the national destiny cannot be stopped. Just when Japan ran out of money, the London banking community, which had been refusing to lend money, someone told Takahashi Korekiyo that an American gentleman asked Japan how much money to borrow. How much money he could get for Japan in the European and American markets, and he also left a message: "Kill the Russians!"

It turned out that the American was the famous American Jewish tycoon Jacob Schiff, He was deeply abhorred by Tsarist Russia's persecution of Jews at that time, and was eager to use Japan to teach Tsarist Russia a lesson. It later turned out that Schiff not only took revenge on Russia, but also made a fortune from the war. From this aspect, we can also see how terrifying the power of capital was a hundred years ago. One person could influence the direction of the war. After

became deeply integrated with the financial circle, British public opinion began to favor Japan, bragging about Japan's combat power all day long. As a result, everyone from the royal family and nobles to the traffickers and pawns began to snap up Japan's war bonds. In this way, with the help of the Jewish consortium, Takahashi borrowed a total of 800 million yen, covering almost half of the entire war expenses. It took Japan 82 years to repay this money, and it was only fully repaid in 1986.

02|Spy War

When the Russo-Japanese War broke out, Akashi Genjiro had gone from Russia to the Japanese Embassy in Sweden, and used it as a base to conduct intelligence activities against Russia. Japan's General Staff Headquarters has allocated a large amount of funds, and Akashi can use them freely and flexibly, as long as it can instigate civil strife in Russia.

Akashi's intelligence work had a lot to do with the success of the subsequent Russian Revolution. During the Russo-Japanese War, Akashi's various secret manipulations made Russian society uneasy and in turmoil, making him unable to concentrate on dealing with Japan. The deputy chief of staff of the Japanese Army Staff Headquarters "Nagaoka Gaishi" once said: Akashi alone can equal 10 army divisions!

The Japanese comment on Akashi is: "Without General Nogi Nogi Port Arthur can win; without General Togo Heihachiro the battle in the Sea of ​​Japan can be won; but without Colonel Akashi Genjiro, Japan can win The Russo-Japanese War will never be won. "

Of course, no reliable information can be found about Akashi Genjiro's underground activities, but in the eyes of the Japanese, he is still a god-like figure.

Japanese Amazon There is also a best-selling book about him, "The Life of Akashi Genjiro Akashi". Even if you don't understand Japanese, you can guess the general meaning from the Chinese characters.

To this day, there are still Japanese people calling for him: What great achievements did the Japanese sages create back then! Today, (Japan) is a poor country. We must restore the spirit of the past and return to a normal independent and sovereign country.

03|Diplomatic War

Usually when a war begins, you should have some idea of ​​how it will end. However, Japan, determined to go to war, had little national power and had no hope of defeating Russia. Whether it can even last for a year is doubtful. Japan's intention is to try its best to hold on for one year. It is hoped that during this period, a powerful third party will intervene. As a result, while determined to go to war, activities to prepare for the end of the war were quickly launched.

The person who shoulders this important task is Kentaro Kaneko. He studied abroad at Harvard University and was a classmate with Roosevelt, who later served as President of the United States. Therefore, Kentaro Kaneko is best suited for this job. Judging from the international situation at that time, there was no one other than President Roosevelt of the United States who could mediate between Japan and Russia.

The international sphere of influence at that time was the "British-American-Japanese Alliance" against the "German-French-Russian Alliance." Therefore, the United States remains neutral on the surface, paralyzes Russia, and supports Japan secretly, with the purpose of wearing down Russia.

With the unremitting efforts of Kentaro Kaneko, Roosevelt made full gestures, half-promised, and ended with mediation. In fact, it was just the distribution of benefits after the war.On the surface, in the Russo-Japanese War, Russia was defeated and Japan was victorious, but the real beneficiaries behind the scenes were the United Kingdom and the United States. Britain made money selling weapons, and the United States made huge war profits. It not only suppressed Russia, but also restricted Japan. It can be described as a true "win-win". Britain and the United States win together! For a small country like Japan, it was overjoyed to be able to temporarily overwhelm Russia and escape unscathed.

summary

The weak Japan's victory over the huge Russia not only relied on the sacrifice of its soldiers to fight, but also relied on the efforts of the Japanese elite on three behind-the-scenes fronts. Financial war, Japan raised huge sums of money. Spy war, civil strife broke out in Russia. Diplomatic war, Britain and the United States support Japan. Even if one of these three fronts fails, Japan will not be able to escape the polar bear's fangs and claws! Japan probably collapsed a hundred years ago.

So, can the current Russia-Ukraine war be compared?

Financial war, Russia was injured, but came back to life. At that time, France and Tsarist Russia, who had been isolated by Germany for twenty years, hit it off and signed a package of cooperation treaties, forming a relatively solid Russian-French alliance. France gave Russia a lot of support, both covertly and covertly. The Financial Street in Paris was the Tsar's. Contributed a lot to war financing. Today, Russia is still blessed by the mysterious power from the East. This power is obviously far superior to France back then.

There is indeed an undercurrent of spy war, but under the control of Putin authority, today's Russia is by no means the shaky Tsarist Russia of the past.

Diplomatic war has long passed the era when Britain and the United States had the final say. Just now, the BRICs summit was amicable, and no one mentioned Ukraine at all. On the other side, the G7 summit swore loudly and vowed to continue to impose sanctions on Russia. As a result, the specific plan was to limit the price of buying Russian oil and refuse to buy Russian gold. But the question is, if you set a price limit, what should you do if Russia doesn’t sell it? The markets of the big Eastern countries and the third largest country in South Asia are enough to absorb Russian oil and gold.

At this point, Ukraine’s fate should be clear.