Susan Hu Yuqing Yingshangyun Think Tank 2022-10-31 19:53 Published in Guangdong
leaping passenger flow curve, the weather vane of recovery. This series explores the passenger flow map of shopping centers in various tier-level cities, uncovers the secrets of the "City Flow King" and provides reference for industry decision-making.
This article is 2022 National Shopping Center Customer Flow Report in the third quarter.
cover and header picture 丨 Visual China
Industry analyst 丨Susan Hu Yuqing
Editor-in-chief 丨Fu Qingrong
Visual design 丨Carol
After experiencing the bottom in March, rebound in May, and peak in August, the national shopping mall passenger flow fluctuated phased in September, and the growth rate dropped significantly.
According to Yingshang Big Data statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, the passenger flow of 5,625 shopping malls with a sample monitoring of more than 30,000 square meters fell 7.5% year-on-year, and the average daily passenger flow index was 15,000 people. However, considering the bottoming performance of passenger flow in the first and second quarters of this year, looking at the third quarter alone, the average daily passenger flow in the sample shopping mall increased by 22.2% month-on-month, with a passenger flow index of nearly 17,800 people.
carefully look at the performance of passenger flow in each month. In May this year, the average daily passenger flow growth in domestic shopping malls reached the highest level of 29.1% in one year, and then gradually slowed down, and the growth rate fell to the negative range since August. It is worth mentioning that the passenger flow index exceeded 18,000 during the peak period of passenger flow in July and August this year.
In addition to the sudden recurrence of the epidemic, seasonal factors are another reason for short-term fluctuations in the consumer market. compared the month-on-month trend of the passenger flow index in each month from 2020 to 2022 and found that due to seasonal factors such as the start of school, the September passenger flow index showed a month-on-month decline and a stable increase of in 2020 and 2021, respectively, and this year is no exception.
Looking at the change curve of Chinese shopping centers in the past three years after the epidemic, we will find that it has gone through three stages:
- The first stage: January to August 2020, a period of drastic adjustment;
- The second stage: September 2020-February 2022, the decline in fluctuations;
- The third stage: March to September 2022: Recovered during fluctuations.
The uncertainty brought about by the repeated disturbances of the epidemic is still increasing, and the "pain" of the short-term market suspension is becoming a "new normal" that the commercial real estate market must face. Passenger flow recovers in fluctuations, but there are still seasonal fluctuations in recovery, which has also become a short-term consensus. After the reshaping of
, shopping malls are still a collection pool of offline traffic, which has never changed. disassembles customer flow indicators and finds certainty in uncertainty so that you can grasp the growth code of shopping malls.
Data description:
1. Customer flow data:
Statistical time: January 2020-September 2022;
statistics scope: 5,625 commercial construction area html more than 630,000 square meters of shopping malls.Due to the epidemic, the passenger flow data from March to May 2022 does not include Shanghai;
Note: The passenger flow data involved in this article is only the passenger flow index and does not represent the absolute value;
2. Switch store data:
Statistical scope: 24 key monitoring cities commercial building area of 50,000 square meters and more have been opened shopping centers (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Nanjing, Suzhou , Hangzhou, Hefei, Fuzhou, Xiamen , Nanchang , Qingdao , Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Changsha, Foshan , html ml5 Nanning , Chongqing, Chengdu, Kunming, Xi'an, Quanzhou , Guiyang);
Note: Due to the epidemic in the first half of 2022, only 80-100% of the projects in some cities were collected (Foshan, Changsha, Suzhou, Chengdu, Tianjin, Quanzhou, Xi'an), and the remaining uncollected parts were temporarily stopped;
3. Urban commercial line level: Winshang Big Data integrates factors such as the basic level of urban development, scale of business development, business level, business popularity and future potential, and divides the hierarchical division of the degree of urban commercial development into six levels. In addition: The urban line level mentioned in this article refers to the commercial line level;
4. Market level: high-level market corresponds to high-tier commercial cities, including first-tier commercial, quasi-first-tier and second-tier cities, and the sinking market corresponds to low-tier commercial cities, including third-tier, fourth-tier and fifth-tier cities.
01
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Q3 Customer flow interpretation
Q3 5 led the rise in the northeast, and commercial fifth-tier cities performed the best in
Regional analysis: Northeast and East China passenger flow led the rise, and the growth rate of northwest and southwest declined
022 third quarter, except for the Northwest and Southwest regions, the passenger flow level in other regions increased to varying degrees compared with the second quarter. Due to the significant results of epidemic prevention and control in northern regions such as
Northeast and North China , the passenger flow in the third quarter rebounded significantly. Among them, the passenger flow in the Northeast region led the country, with an average daily passenger flow index of nearly 20,000 people; with the unblocked Shanghai, the East China region also ushered in a significant recovery in the third quarter, with an average daily passenger flow index of as high as 18,000 people. The above-mentioned regions' customer growth in the third quarter was above 30%.
. Due to sporadic epidemics in the Northwest and Southwest regions, consumption scenarios were restricted, and the passenger flow level showed negative growth compared with the second quarter. Among them, the passenger flow in the Southwest region ranked last, with a passenger flow index of 16,000 people.
From the perspective of month-on-month growth rate, North China (Beijing) was hit by the epidemic in the second quarter of this year, and passenger flow was under pressure. After the lockdown was lifted in the third quarter, it rebounded strongly; Northwest District (Gansu, Shaanxi, Xinjiang) and Southwest District (Chengdu) both experienced repeated outbreaks, and passenger flow in the third quarter sharply decreased from the high-speed growth in the second quarter to negative growth.
It can be seen that the repeated epidemic in is still the core factor causing fluctuations in passenger flow in various regions, and the flow of people is reduced and suppressing the space for repairing passenger flow.
City commercial line level: sinking market is accelerating its repair, and the resilience of the high-level market is still at
In the first three quarters of this year, commercial fifth-tier cities performed the best in passenger flow, with increasing 1.2% year-on-year. The passenger flow in other tier-level cities decreased year-on-year. Among them, first-tier commercial cities (excluding Shanghai from March to May) fell the largest, as high as 13.1%, but the decline of was significantly improved compared with the 23.8% decline in the first half of the year .
If divided by quarter, the passenger flow fluctuation of the sinking market (commercial third-tier and below cities) will be significantly greater than that of the high-level market (commercial second-tier and above cities) .
This is mainly because the basic passenger flow in the sinking market is relatively small, and the passenger flow fluctuates significantly; at the same time, the source of customer groups is relatively single, and it is more susceptible to personal factors such as income expectations, which further intensifies the fluctuations in the passenger flow level during the uncertain period of the economy;
Compared with the "big ups and downs" sinking market, shopping centers in high-level markets have a huge and stable consumption base, and the "resilience" of passenger flow is stronger. , and may continue to recover quickly after the impact of the epidemic has subsided.
Project grade: High-end malls return to the king of traffic, with extremely strong passenger flow elasticity
In the third quarter of 2022, the month-on-month growth rate of the passenger flow level of high-end shopping centers was as high as 35.9%, far higher than other shopping centers. With the rise of the consumer market and the lifting of scene restrictions, high-end shopping malls have changed their decline in the first half of the year. In the third quarter, the average daily passenger flow reached 39,000, and the passenger flow and growth rate exceeded that of mid-to-high-end shopping malls, reaching the top again.
Review of the passenger flow trend from January to September this year, the passenger flow of shopping malls of all levels bottomed out in March, and high-end malls were severely impacted, and the decline in passenger flow was higher than that of mid-range and popular malls;
6, with the lifting of restrictions on market scenarios in core cities such as Shanghai, high-end consumption has recovered significantly, with the higher the grade and the greater the increase, and the month-on-month growth rate of high-end shopping malls exceeded 45%.
until September, shopping malls of all levels experienced phased fluctuations, with the decline falling to more than 10%, of which the high-end malls fell by 10.2%.
It can be seen that high-end malls have extremely strong passenger flow elasticity. High-end shopping centers are often located in the core areas of high-tier cities, and these areas are the main outbreak of a new round of epidemics. The greater the impact of commercial impact, the deeper the impact of passenger flow; similarly, once the lockdown is lifted, the high-end consumer market will be quickly repaired.
02
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Industry observation
grasp the certainty in uncertainty and lock in the counter-trend growth of high-energy brands
City the trend of passenger flow has attracted much attention, due to the large fluctuation of passenger flow this year, and the uncertainty of offline operations is increasing.
But what remains unchanged is that the core advantage of high-energy players in shopping malls is still to provide good scenario services through the collection of different business formats, becoming a collection pool of offline traffic.
Gold and jewelry have grown against the market, and have actually achieved the "anti-cycle" category
Since the epidemic, the core retail formats of shopping malls have performed relatively sluggish. However, among the subdivided business formats, new energy vehicles and gold jewelry maintain a very high level of switch stores and continue to expand.
is different from the high-speed development stage and high-income industrial subsidy environmental advantages of new energy vehicles. As a traditional and market-oriented field, the high level of switch stores is positively reflecting its high anti-cyclical . The reason for the growth of
against the market: First, marriage has always been the core scenario of gold and jewelry sales, and the basic needs are strong; second, in optional consumption, gold also has the logic of both consumption and investment due to value preservation. In such a high level of switch stores, leading companies represented by Zhoudafu are the main increment.
Although the gold jewelry industry is relatively prosperous, since the cost of opening a store is higher than that of other retail formats, franchise stores currently tend to choose to open brand stores with more certainty. In the past, small brands could attract franchisees to open stores through concessions and other means. However, under the test of the epidemic, what franchisees need more is the certainty of performance, and their profit margin ranks second to . Therefore, franchisees are almost only willing to start their top brand stores.
In addition, gold jewelry continues to shift from fixed price to selling by grams, which increases the turnover rate of in physical stores, and also puts forward higher requirements for the brand's supply chain and SKU number. Only the leading brands have the strength.
In addition, while small brands withdraw, big brands can buy at the bottom of the store at a low rent.
catering has recovered month-on-month, and casual catering is still the hot bun
In the third quarter of 2022, there were about 1.45 shopping centers above 50,000 square meters in 7 key cities, about 2,745 new stores opened, about 3,132 new stores closed, and the ratio of opening and closing stores was 0.88, far lower than 1.14 in the third quarter of 2021. Due to the repeated impact of the epidemic in the first half of the year, offline stores have become more cautious.
However, the catering industry has the best recovery level. In the first three quarters of this year, the catering switch store ratio was 0.86, among which casual meals increased against the trend to 1.03.
Fast casual catering is a business format between fast food and regular meals, providing consumers with a dining choice of "slightly higher than fast food expenditures, but can enjoy a comfortable dining environment/high-quality ingredients". It is actually a catering category created by the evolution of consumer demand.
For example, in North America, the famous company "Ink-style barbecue" has the advantages of traditional fast food and regular restaurants, which is faster than formal restaurants, and is also distinguished from competitors by advocating healthy dining concepts. First, we focus on fresh ingredients. The ingredients store purchases locally and refuses non-GMO ingredients to adapt to the consumption habits of young people. Secondly, we pay great attention to the dining experience, the dining environment is good and the store is highly digital, so as to avoid meal times during peak customer flow.
can be seen from the above. In the North American market, although the pace of restoration of casual catering is slow, and track players generally returned to the 2019 level after Q1 2021, they are still regarded as a high-quality investment track by the capital market. This is because the evolution of consumer demand has the ability to create new catering products.
In summary, even if the customer flow fluctuates, shopping malls are still the most certain offline channel.
For different companies in different business formats, although the industry is different, the effective update of products and the accurate expansion of channels are still the decisive points. Looking to the new decade, whoever can master the creative ability of new products and whoever can gain a high degree of initiative in channel expansion will be better.
Frankly welcomes uncertainty and do what you can do. It is not only an attitude, but also a kind of business wisdom.
