Hello everyone, today's topic is the time issue for this round of bear market adjustment. The previous article discusses the space issue for this round of bear market adjustment was published on October 22, 2022. If you don't read it, you can read it.
Let’s talk about the topic directly: First of all, friends who are speculating on a stocks should understand one thing, that is, during the trading cycle of the stock market, the rise time is much smaller than the decline time. Almost 80% of the time in trading is either sideways or falling, and only 20% of the time is rising. Foreign stock markets do not know that at least the historical experience of A-shares is like this; see the figure below:
Shanghai Composite Index Monthly Line
The previous article of this chart has appeared. Here are the two cycles of bull and bear markets in 2007 and 2015. 1 and 3 represent the up cycle, and 2 and 4 represent the down cycle; first look at the bull market in 2007. Open the drawing tool, click the cycle line tool to draw the picture, equal parts draw the cycle grid . You can see that this bull market rise cycle is 28 months, while this round of decline is 28+28+21=77 months. The bear market fall time is 2.75 times the bull market rise time, as shown in the figure below
Shanghai Composite Index 2007 bull and bear cycle monthly chart
0007 bull and bear cycle monthly chart
0000 bull and bear cycles
0000 bull and bear cycles
0000 bull and bear cycles
0000 bull and bear cycles
0000 bull and bear market rise time, as shown in the figure below
000 bull and bear market monthly chart
0000 bull and bear market rise time, as shown in the figure below
000 bull and bear market monthly chart
0000 bull and bear market rise time, as shown in the figure below
000 bull and bear market monthly chart, as shown in the figure below
000 bull and bear market monthly chart, as shown in the figure below
000 bull and bear market monthly chart,
0000 bull and bear market growth time, as shown in the figure below
0000 bull and bear market monthly chart,
0000 bull and bear market growth time, as shown in the figure below
0000 bull and bear market monthly chart,
0000 bull and bear market growth time Let’s look at the monthly chart of the Shanghai Composite Index in 2015 and draw the chart in the same way. It is concluded that the bull market rise cycle in 2015 is 15 months, the bear market fall cycle is 15+15+13=43 months, and the decline time is 2.86 times the rise time, as follows
Shanghai Composite Index 2015 bull and bear cycle monthly chart
Finally, we will draw the current cycle we are in. In this round of bull and bear cycle, from the lowest 2440 to the highest 3731 is the bull market rise cycle, the rise cycle is 25 months, and then from 3731 to the decline is a bear market cycle. The current down cycle has only been running for 20 months, as shown in the figure below. Then how long will it take for the next bear market to be over? I don’t know, think about it myself.
Shanghai Stock Exchange's current point monthly chart
Final summary: I want to make the key statement here: The purpose of analyzing these time periods is not to calculate how long it takes to rise and fall, and how many times the bear market is the bull market time period? Is it 2.7 times or 2.8 times? Then go to this point. Don’t go into this issue or argue, you should jump out of this horn. These things only show one truth, that is, the bear market will never end so soon! The bear market is definitely long! Don't talk about it easily!
Now the two articles have finished talking about space and time. Do you feel that although you understand the truth, the overall concept of bull and bear cycle is still relatively vague. What you understand is only a framework. The last problem here is the wave theory, which will be analyzed in the next article (3); space, time, wave theory, these three cannot be judged separately and separately, and must be combined to improve the accuracy rate. So let’s talk about it next time.
(How many people really understand the bear market? How many complete cow and bear cycles have you experienced? It’s not something that can be finished in just a few words)
