In 2023, I think it is a high probability event. 2 conditions are very sufficient:
- First of all, minimum wage continues to rise this year. Henan, Fujian, Yunnan and other provinces have announced the hike of the minimum wage standard. Once the minimum wage changes, the average wage will increase.
- Secondly, consumer prices have been rising all the way this year. By September, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the increase reached 2.8%, close to the expected 3%.
The above two conditions occur, so we need to contact the requirements of Article 18 of the " Social Insurance Law " of our country, and increase the pension based on prices and wage levels.
But after the rise, everyone may also be mentally prepared, because the increase in 2023 may not be able to continue the 4% standard this year. It may continue to decline on this basis, down to 3.5%. There are signs of 6 signals:
first, GDP is lower than the same period last year
my country's GDP growth in the first three quarters this year was 3%, 9.8% in the same period last year, which can be said to be more than three times the increase this year. However, even under the conditions of so much GDP growth, the level of pension growth was still in a downward state. This year's GDP growth has severely shrunk, indicating that industry revenue is cooling down, corporate and individual income has decreased, and the standards for salary and social security payment may also decline. It is not ruled out that some companies go bankrupt, employees leave their jobs and are unemployed, and directly stop paying social security premiums. The income of pension funds may be reduced compared with 2021.
Second, the number of retirees reaches a peak in 2023
From next year, my country may usher in the largest retirement wave in ten years, and next year will be the peak of the retirement wave in these ten years. The reason is that 1963 was the year with the highest birth rate in China, with the number of newborns reaching 29.57 million. By 2023, it is exactly when these people are over 60 years old, and it is the time for male legal retirement age . The proportion of men in my country is higher than that of women. A large number of people will retire next year and start receiving basic pensions. The scale of pension payments may expand next year.
Third, real estate development is shrinking
Why should we mention real estate here? Because in my country, real estate is a pillar industry, which is very dense, and the upstream and downstream are related to the survival of hundreds of industries. Real estate companies need to continue operating. The current pressure is very high, and the capital recovery is not good, so they dare not continue to acquire land to build houses. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September, the growth of national real estate development investment continued to decline by 8%, which is the largest decline since this year. If enterprises want to continue to turn over, they need to continuously ensure that the projects increase so that the capital flow can be moved. On the contrary, it means that real estate companies are short of funds at hand. In order to save costs, there may be layoffs and salary cuts, the number of unemployed people will also decrease.
The fourth, personal pension system needs to promote
This year, the individual pension system was introduced, and the requirements for reducing income tax burden were also announced, downgrading from 7.5% to 3%. Currently, Chengdu, Sichuan has announced that it will prepare for a pilot. To participate in the personal pension system, you need to pay basic pension insurance at the same time and pay two sums of money. Logically speaking, people would rather spend one more cent to participate in the insurance because they are afraid that relying solely on basic pensions after retirement will not be enough to maintain their lives. If the pension increase is still high, young people may not respond actively. In order to promote this system as soon as possible, the level of basic pension increase may be appropriately cooled down to promote the rapid coverage of the third pillar pension system.
Fifth, the average monthly pension for employees has exceeded 3,000 yuan
In 2021, the average monthly pension for employees reached 2,987 yuan, and was increased by 4% in 2022. Without considering other factors, the average monthly increase was more than 100 yuan, and now it has basically exceeded 3,000 yuan per month, while the average monthly pension for farmers is less than 200 yuan, and it is only 179 yuan in 2021. Although many places have increased this money this year, the increase is mostly more than 10 yuan. The gap between the monthly pension income of employees and farmers is already so big. To implement high control and increase lows, it may be possible that only by reducing the level of pension for employees can farmers continue to boost their confidence in insurance.
No. 6, pension adjustment has dropped by 0.5% for two consecutive years
If the upward level of 4% cannot be maintained, according to the previous adjustment methods, there will be no scattered adjustment range when the downward adjustment is made, such as 0.3%, 0.7%, etc., the downward range will be formulated according to standards such as 0.5%, 1%. In 2021 and 2022, the pension adjustment range was lowered based on the previous year, and the adjustment gap was 0.5%. Therefore, if the pension adjustment range will continue to be reduced next year, if there is no major change, it should still be carried out at 0.5%, so it is more likely to drop to 3.5%.
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