1, US Fed rate hike expects to heat up again
Goldman Sachs Group economists said that Fed rate hike to 5% by March 2023, 25 basis points higher than the previous forecast. It predicts that the Fed's rate hike path will announce a 75 basis point rate hike this Thursday, 50 basis points rate hike in December, and 25 basis points rate hike in February and March next year.
According to the CME Group's interest rate observation tool FedWatch, after digesting the expectation of a 75 basis point rate hike in November, the probability of a 50 or 25 basis points rate hike in December has risen to 57%. Oxford Economic Research Institute also believes that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates by 75 basis points this week, and it is a high probability event to reduce the interest rate hike afterwards, but it will maintain a rate hike.
Although a well-known reporter known as the "New Federal Reserve News Agency" said that the Federal Reserve may narrow the rate hike in December, it also said that in order to cool inflation, the final value of the Federal Reserve's interest rate may exceed expectations, and high interest rates will last longer. It seems to be "dove", but it is actually "hawkish".
2 and Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.77%, Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.05%, ChiNext Index rose 0.65%, and the two markets traded 883.2 billion. In terms of industry sectors, 26 rose and 30 fell. In terms of concept sectors, 184 rose and 45 fell. Data security, network security, digital economy , east data and west calculation, domestic software and other concepts rose , and concepts such as coal, HJT batteries, silicon energy, beer, and duty-free ranked the top.
stocks in the two markets, 3219 rose today and 1529 fell. In terms of northbound funds, the net outflow of 9.012 billion yuan throughout the day, the Shanghai Stock Connect outflow of 6.061 billion yuan, and the Shenzhen Stock Connect Internet outflow of 2.951 billion yuan.
From a technical perspective, the Shanghai Composite Index 15-minute level MACD indicator red column is close to the zero axis, the 30-minute level MACD indicator green column is close to the zero axis, and the 60-minute level MACD indicator green column has been shortened, indicating that short-term selling sentiment is being released, but the decline is slowing down. Next, we should pay attention to whether the 30-minute level MACD indicator can enter the red column range and whether it can be maintained.
northbound funds have been significantly net outflowed, suppressing A shares , but from the market, opened lower in the early trading , and then there was a significant counterattack backed , indicating that the support force below is strengthening, and the market has reached a preliminary consensus around 2900 points, and it may be possible to bottom at this position. At this stage, don’t pay attention to the outflow of northbound funds. Pay more attention to the market situation and whether it can be stabilized.
3. The views of the top ten securities firms: ①, CITIC Securities views, the continuous outflow of game-oriented northbound funds and the adjustment of domestic capital positions, inducing the concentrated release of short-term emotional trading of A-shares. As the domestic fundamentals and policy expectations become increasingly clear, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates as scheduled in November, and the peak of the pressure of rapid depreciation of the RMB has passed, consolidating the mid-term recovery foundation for the market. The bottom of this round of market will be confirmed for a second time, bringing a better buying point on the right.
②, Hua'an Securities view, the market is expected to remain in a weak volatility in November, but it will be better than October. If there is a clear signal that international risk suppression weakens or domestic confidence boosts, the market is expected to have a rebound opportunity; ③, Zheshang Securities view, in the short term, combining the sentiment, capital and profit sides, it is believed that the market has entered a rebound window, and in the medium term, the market ushers in a strategic bottom; view, combined with the sentiment, capital and profit sides, it is believed that the market has entered a rebound window, and in the medium term, the market ushers in a strategic bottom;
④, West China Securities views, the current market has included many pessimistic expectations. From the perspective of valuation, institutional position , risk premium , etc., the probability of being in the bottom range is relatively high. The current position should not be too pessimistic. In the future, A-shares are expected to exchange time for space; ⑤, CICC views, looking forward to the future market, it believes that the current bottoming will continue, the market is already at a historical low, There is limited room for a single step of decline, so it is not advisable to be overly pessimistic;
⑥, CICC views, some market valuation and sentiment indicators have been at a historical extreme position, so there is no need to be too pessimistic about the subsequent market environment; ⑦, Western Securities' view, maintaining the turning point of global liquidity expectations in November, the performance bottom is expected to be gradually consolidated, the window for layout of valuation switching is opening, and the bottom of the large-level may be gradually approaching ;
⑧, Industrial Securities views, international risks continue to impact the market in the near future, but A-shares are currently in the bottom range of cost-effectiveness; ⑨, China Securities' view, without fear of disturbances, actively grasping the warm winter market; ⑩, Haitong Securities' view, defines industries with valuation and historical qualitative proportion of fund positions as "double low" industries, and the market is in a large bottom area.
The views of the top ten brokerages this week are in line with the hawkish interest rate hikes in the Federal Reserve. Most of the views believe that the market selling sentiment has been released in a concentrated manner, and the right side will enter the opportunity zone. A-shares are in the bottom range, and opportunities outweigh risks.
As for how A-shares will go in the future and whether they will fall sharply, from an objective perspective, the current A-shares are around 2900 points, and the valuation is at the historical bottom. There is nothing to panic about this situation. Short-term fluctuations may continue, but the medium- and long-term value has been highlighted.
There is no recommendation in this article, and the stocks mentioned do not constitute any recommendations. The stock market is risky, so be cautious when investing.
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