Today is October 23, 2022. As of now, the oil price adjustment and pricing cycle has come to an end. According to the current data, an increase in oil price has become a certain fact. Oil prices are expected to rise by 0.15 yuan/liter. The 20th oil price adjustment this year is about to come to an end. All cars are mainly ready to refuel! !
From the perspective of profit performance, diesel profit was lower than gasoline around the Spring Festival. The main reason was that diesel demand dropped to the lowest this year, wholesale prices weakened, and gasoline was relatively good. In late autumn and early winter, the higher than gasoline is the main reason why diesel demand reaches its highest peak this year, and the positive demand exceeds gasoline. The above two manifestations are the most common market phenomena. When demand changes greatly in the short term, supply adjustments are not timely enough, and the supply and demand pattern changes greatly lead to violent fluctuations in wholesale prices.
In other months, when the demand for gasoline and diesel is not very different, diesel profits also exceed gasoline. This is also the result of abnormal changes in supply and demand, and usually diesel actively reduces production. In 2019, the main business actively lowered the diesel-to-air ratio and reduced diesel-to-air more gasoline; in 2020, the demand for gasoline was too sluggish under the influence of the epidemic, and diesel was less affected.
Diet oil supply and demand in both long-term and short-term diesel supply and demand is more favorable than gasoline, so diesel profits are better than gasoline. Against the backdrop of the decline in diesel consumption but the continued rise in gasoline consumption. However, the decline in diesel demand will continue, and the space for continued reduction in production has been significantly reduced compared with previous years, and the support of exports has also weakened significantly, making the future trend difficult to continue.
This week, the main gasoline price in East China continued to fall, and diesel prices were basically stable. Recently, US commercial crude oil inventories have fallen beyond expectations, and Western sanctions against Russia are still advancing, and international oil prices have rebounded after falling. During the week, the center of gravity of 92# gasoline trading in the East China market adjusted to around 8400-8950 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from last week; the center of gravity of diesel trading was adjusted to around 8770-8865 yuan/ton, basically the same as last week. The epidemic situation in some areas in East China is severe, gasoline demand is sluggish, gasoline shipments of main units are poor, and gasoline prices continue to fall; while diesel demand has certain support, and diesel prices remain near the price limit. The main unit's diesel resources are still limited to sales, and the overall market transaction atmosphere is average.
Recently, US commercial crude oil inventories have fallen beyond expectations, and Western sanctions against Russia are still advancing, and international oil prices rebounded after falling. There are no equipment maintenance in the refinery in the area, and the supply of spot resources has stabilized. The demand for diesel in East China is still acceptable, gasoline demand is suppressed by the epidemic, and the current price is still in the high range, and some businesses are becoming cautious in purchasing. Entering the late month, some sales units in the district have failed to complete their tasks, and gasoline prices have been reduced and diesel is still limited in sales.
Based on the above factors, Fed interest rate hike hinders the economic recession concerns continue to pressure oil prices, and Biden announced that three key steps taken to lower gasoline retail prices will continue to be negative for the oil market, and international oil prices still have room for decline. In terms of gasoline, gasoline shipments are still showing weakness, the market mentality is relatively weak, and the epidemic will still restrict demand in the short term. In terms of diesel, diesel wholesale continues to control volume sales, and there is no sign of relaxation in market resources. In addition, there is expectation of a new round of retail price increase. It is expected that the main gasoline price in East China will remain sluggish in the short term, and diesel prices will continue to be strong.
From the perspective of the theoretical profit of gasoline and diesel exports: the quarterly average gasoline and diesel export profits narrowed significantly in the third quarter, and the profits of gasoline and diesel exports showed a steady and downward trend. The average gasoline export arbitrage fell from the high of the average profit of 2,576 yuan/ton in June to the average of -60 yuan/ton in September, and is currently falling to around -165 yuan/ton in October. Diesel's average profit in June showed arbitrage of 2,660 yuan/ton, and then gradually dropped below 1,000 yuan in September to 246 yuan/ton. It is currently gradually increasing to 757 yuan/ton in October.
Overall, the trend of gasoline and diesel continues to differentiate, and the pattern of strong diesel and weak diesel will continue. At present, as late October, domestic gasoline and diesel continue to implement its preliminary export plan."Silver October" is coming to an end. With the new export quota in November yet to be implemented, can diesel that reaches the limit continue to rise with the retail price? As the weather turns colder, demand in the north gradually declines. Whether the consumption in the south can support high oil prices, opportunities and risks in the refined oil market coexist.
Today, October 23, the author will take you to see the latest Sinopec , CNPC and CNOOC gas stations 92 and 95 gasoline and diesel prices on May 16. The following content is for reference only. Please refer to the actual transactions of gas stations in various places. In addition, the oil prices in Yunnan, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Liaoning, Xinjiang, Qinghai, Tibet, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang have not achieved a unified price.
