The domestic yellow phosphorus market was fluctuating in 2022, and the spot price was at an absolute high in the past five years. The average price from January to September was 33,682 yuan/ton, an increase of 48.14% year-on-year (22,736 yuan/ton); among which the lowest point in the year was 25,000 yuan/ton in early August, and the highest point was 39,000 yuan/ton in mid-to-late May.
1-September, the opening price of Yunnan yellow phosphorus market was 35,000 yuan/ton, and the opening and closing prices rose by 1,000 yuan/ton, and the increase of was 42.86%. The price of yellow phosphorus is driven by continuous transformation between cost logic and supply and demand logic. The domestic demand market performed strongly in the first half of the year, with high acceptance of high-priced raw materials. Some companies such as glyphosate have large profit margins, high start-up load, and stable demand for yellow phosphorus market. The price of raw material phosphate ore continues to rise, and costs continue to support it. Due to the large fluctuation of yellow phosphorus price, corporate procurement is mostly based on a large number of orders, which puts the yellow phosphorus market in a tight supply state and prices continue to rise. By June, the construction load of downstream products increased significantly, and the market competition was fierce at low prices. In order to reduce costs, downstream companies turned to lower raw material prices, and the yellow phosphorus market price began a path of continuous decline. At present, the yellow phosphorus market is sufficient, downstream demand is weak, and oversupply leads to a continuous decline in prices, which may remain at a low consolidation situation, making it difficult to have a significant increase in the short term.
1-September yellow phosphorus market price fluctuated frequently, 8 declines and 8 rises, and the market price adjustment frequency was high. The main reasons for the yellow phosphorus market trend from January to September are: frequent games between the upstream and downstream parties caused by the imbalance in supply and demand, the continuous rise in raw material prices, and policy changes.
China's annual total yellow phosphorus production in 2022 is expected to be 850,000 tons, an increase of 7.59% month-on-month, and the average monthly output increases to around 70,800 tons. From January to September, my country's yellow phosphorus production was 635,300 tons. Judging from the changes in output, the peak output from January to September occurred in June. Yunnan and Sichuan regions entered the water-boosting period. Yellow phosphorus enterprises started to work significantly, and the output was high. After June, the industry's monthly output showed a certain decline, especially the decline in output in August was more obvious, mainly due to weak market demand in August, the market price of yellow phosphorus continued to decline, enterprises reduced production and maintained prices, and output declined significantly. From January to September, the profit of in the yellow phosphorus industry was basically maintained at a high level. In July to August, the market price of yellow phosphorus fell sharply, and the profit was low. Affected by the large profit margin, the start of domestic yellow phosphorus equipment has basically remained at a high level, and the industry start-up load hovered around 60%, resulting in a significant increase in overall output.
is expected to continue to fluctuate in the fourth quarter. In November, yellow phosphorus companies are holding prices and waiting for the market, but with weak demand, there may still be a decline. There may still be expectations of subsequent electricity restrictions in Yunnan, and the rise in electricity prices during the dry period will support the yellow phosphorus market in terms of cost. Demand continues to be weak, with the downstream phosphate , phosphorus trichloride and glyphosate markets all cooling down, and there is no strong positive support for demand.
