Yesterday, I said that the exchange rate of the other strait is the anchor of A shares . Since it is so important, I have to talk about it again today.
A-shares have risen in full swing on Wednesday morning, but offshore RMB began to strengthen since noon Wednesday. After
strengthened, A-shares began to pull back in the afternoon of the same day, and fluctuated on Thursday.
The general increase on Wednesday some people attributed the reason to the increase of the cross-border adjustment parameters from 1 to 1.25. The significance of the parameter
is that you can borrow more foreign currencies and exchange them for RMB for use.
When the economy is good, this tool is very useful, financing promotes production and financing promotes consumption.
But under the current situation, under the background of hiking interest rates on the other side of , will it be too expensive to borrow foreign currency?
has production needs and consumption needs, so why not use the low-interest loans in the country.
OK, because the currency on the other side is appreciating and our currency is depreciating. There is still a little sesame here to pick up. The cost of using it after exchange and exchange may be cheaper than that in China.
But how many people will use this tool?
I think I need to call a question number.
...
During adolescence, my mother burned bone soup for me every day in order to grow my body, hoping that would replenish the shape of .
Looking at a large bowl of white soup with oily flowers, it was really hard to swallow.
Turning his head and looking at my mother's expectant eyes, gritting her teeth, and still pouring it down.
Under my mother's insistence, I began to become glossy and touched my face with my hand, which could remove a lot of greasy water.
It can be imagined that with so many oils, the excretion speed cannot keep up with the intake rate at all.
Acne begins to appear on the face, and there are more and more, and there are still many scars left today.
The appearance of acne may be a normal physiological phenomenon, but secreting too much oil will indeed clog pores and induce the growth of acne.
oil soup is not urgently needed by everyone. Occasionally, it is still effective to supplement hungry people, but it does not have long-term durability.
Think about it, are we hungry? Do we need it?
...
Before the rise on Wednesday, the stock market on the other side had risen by more than 300 points overnight, so it is better to say that the general rise of A-shares is Follow.
And why did the stock market rise on the other side rise?
Because house price growth slowed down year-on-year, as consumer confidence index showed its first recent decline and was well below the average forecast.
indicates that there are signs of recession in the economy, and the market began to predict that the pace of interest rate hikes would slow down, so the exchange rate on the other side began to weaken.
As for whether it will really slow down, there is also a question mark.
Because GDP and CPI have not yet come out in the third quarter.
What you expect often changes, which also leads to market fluctuations and uncertainty.
is like our data this week. It is expected to be 3.5 in the early stage, and the recent expert forecast is 3-3.3, while the market's highest forecast is as high as 5, and the final announcement is only 3.9.
...
The exchange rate on the other side weakened and the stock market strengthened, which was the expected result, and the result will be clear immediately.
No matter what, my judgment is that the rate hike will not come to an abrupt end, which is a slow process.
So, it is highly likely that even if the exchange rate on the other side of the strait breaks in the short term, it will remain at a high level.
I want to say, the time node of the turning point is now expected to be in the second quarter of next year, and I have followed.
Return to the stock market, without major changes, the exchange rate on the other side is still an anchor.
We just need to keep a close eye on the second quarter of next year in time and keep a close eye on the amplitude of interest rate hikes in space.
can hold the Dinghai Shen Needle and catch the stars in the sea.
The stock market may have an advance volume and will expect other people's expectations, but as long as this expectation has not been reached, the advance volume will not come.
Do you have such a consistent expectation now?
is still early.
Let’s talk about it next year.
In the torrent of follow-up, in the complicated information, there is a touch that penetrates the soul and a seamless fit, which is the meaning of this account. Any view of the student is not a buying and selling recommendation, but is discussing and studying the market with all the masters. The stock market is risky, so be cautious when entering the market!
