Good news: International oil prices hit the largest single-day decline! The next round of domestic refined oil may usher in a downward window
Today is Sunday, October 16, 2022! A new round of domestic refined oil will open a price adjustment window on October 24. Due to the recent fluctuations in international oil prices, whether oil prices will rise or fall has caused heated discussions among car owners. Now the time to adjust the oil price is getting closer and closer. What is the trend of oil prices next round? Let’s look down together
When the last round of refined oil price adjustment window opened, domestic refined oil ushered in the first round of stranding due to the increase in oil prices by less than 50 yuan per ton. On the last working day before the stranding, international oil prices began to rebound, and WTI crude oil price soared 17%, setting the largest single-week increase since Russia launched a special military operation against Ukraine at the end of February. Therefore, news of a sharp rise in domestic oil prices has been spreading everywhere. Fortunately, international oil prices began to fall this week. As of now, international oil prices have fallen for five consecutive days and have set the largest single-day decline this year.
On October 16th, the latest news of international oil prices, US Brent crude oil fell sharply, Brent crude oil was latest at USD 91.7 per barrel, down 2.99 compared with the previous trading day, WTI crude oil was latest at USD 85.55 per barrel, down 3.68, a single-day decline of 4.12%, setting the largest drop in recent times, and put Brent crude oil close to the USD 80 per barrel range. US Brent crude oil further fell, creating favorable conditions for domestic refined oil to open a window of downward adjustment.
As of the fourth working day, the average price of reference crude oil varieties is US$88.62 per barrel, with a change rate of 3.95%. The corresponding domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel should be increased by 260 yuan/ton. The conversion per liter of gasoline and diesel is expected to increase by 0.19 yuan. Seeing this, many car owners may be puzzled. The oil price is obviously increasing, so why is it expected to open a window of downward adjustment?
According to the relevant provisions of the " Oil Price Management Measures ", the adjustment will be made every 10 working days. Due to the fluctuations in oil price data, the expected adjustment range of oil prices in the first 4 working days is only for reference. It is necessary to accurately predict the next round of oil price adjustments based on the crude oil change rate after 5 working days. Therefore, the trend of oil prices next week is more critical. With the sharp decline in international oil prices, the crude oil change rate will narrow next week. In the remaining 6 working days, international crude oil will maintain a downward trend. Then, the 20th round of domestic refined oil may open a downward window on October 24.
Total analysis of oil price trends, 4 working days have passed since the 10 working day price adjustment cycle. The current oil price is expected to rise by 260 yuan/ton. However, with the sharp decline in international oil prices, the crude oil change rate will inevitably narrow or turn from positive to negative. The crude oil change rate of 6 working days has not been updated. The change information will be updated simultaneously next week. The main reason for the sharp rise in international oil prices is the production cut agreement implemented after the OPEC+ meeting. Now, as the United States continues to release inventory of oil to maintain stability and encourage refiners to increase oil output, international oil prices have fallen back and fall continuously, so it is still expected to fall when the oil price window opens next round.
Domestic refined oil update October 16, adjustments to gasoline No. 92, gasoline No. 95, diesel No. 0.
