What is the current situation of the epidemic in our country?
has many points, wide areas and frequent occurrences
The situation is severe and complex, but overall controllable
Why insist on " dynamically clearing "?
prevents the large-scale rebound of the epidemic
The harm of the virus has not decreased significantly. Why can't lie down?
will lead to a large number of severe illnesses and deaths.
is incompatible with Chinese culture and anti-epidemic concepts. How can
benefit the resumption of work and production?
cannot define the risk area on a large scale
cannot replace "silent" to control how long does it take to return to normal
?
The epidemic is completely over and needs to be comprehensively considered.
needs to reach a balance in many aspects
On October 13, The State Council’s Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism held a press conference. Responsible persons from relevant departments and bureaus of the National Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention and relevant experts attended to introduce the relevant situation of scientific and accurate epidemic prevention and control.
What is the development trend of the epidemic in my country?
Recently, my country continues to face the dual risks of imported epidemics from abroad and the spread of local epidemics, and the epidemic situation in some areas rebounded. The epidemic situation in Xinjiang has been repeated, but it is generally controllable. The epidemic situation in Inner Mongolia has improved significantly and the number of cases has dropped significantly. The epidemic situation in Sichuan, Gansu, Shanxi and other places has been gradually controlled. The epidemic situation in Ningxia and Tibet is stable and improving, and the epidemic situation in other provinces has spread at multiple points. At present, the national epidemic situation is severe and complex, showing the characteristics of "many points, wide areas, and frequent occurrence". The risk of local clustered epidemics still exists, but it is generally controllable.
The National Health Commission and the National Disease Control and Prevention Bureau have strengthened overall coordination and dispatch, guided local governments to implement epidemic prevention and control measures around the National Day, and sent working groups to strengthen epidemic prevention and control forces in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, Shanxi, Tibet and other places. All localities should strengthen the "four-party responsibilities", seek truth from facts, report and publish epidemic data in a timely and objective manner, continue to strengthen epidemic prevention and control and response work, and resolutely defend the bottom line of preventing large-scale epidemics. Why should
insist on "dynamic clearance" and not "coexist" with the virus?
First of all, "dynamic zeroing" is based on the anti-epidemic concept of "people first, life first" and based on the current understanding of the characteristics of the virus. The core of "dynamic zeroing" is to block the epidemic, not to eliminate the virus, nor to not allow a single case. The core of blocking the epidemic is to quickly discover and extinguish it quickly, and to extinguish it together.
Simply put, the core of "dynamic zeroing" is to block the continuous community transmission of the epidemic and prevent the epidemic from forming a large-scale epidemic or rebounding of a large-scale epidemic. There are two keys to achieving "dynamic zeroing". One is to quickly, quickly discover and deal with it quickly; the other is to accurately identify the epidemic, accurately define the scope of the epidemic area, accurately conduct epidemiological investigations, accurately conduct , accurately determine and manage close contacts , and accurately conduct clinical treatment, and ultimately accurately balance epidemic prevention and control and social and economic development.
Second, there are two different perspectives to measure the harm of the epidemic. The internationally common perspective of public health is to measure it from the perspective of the group, using indicators such as mortality and excess mortality, rather than from the perspective of case mortality and individual. The mortality rate of the Omickron mutant strain is indeed declining compared with the previous mutant strains and the original strains, but the spread is fast, the transmission is more hidden, and the immune escape is gradually increasing, so the overall incidence rate is high, which means that there will be a large number of infections in the population. Multiplying the number of infections by individual mortality, the number of deaths will be relatively large, and the group mortality rate will be higher than influenza , and not lower than the original and other mutant strains. It can be seen that its harm to humans has not decreased significantly overall.
excess mortality rate, that is, after the emergence of this disease, it will not only affect severe illness and death of patients infected with this disease, but may also lead to a run of medical resources, affect the demand for other normal medical services, and may lead to some unnecessary deaths. Judging from the current situation, the excess death caused by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, whether it is the original or mutant strain, especially the Omickron mutant strain, is relatively high, and has been studied above 100 parts per 100,000.
Third, my country has a large population, a high proportion of the elderly population, and a large number of patients with underlying diseases. It is a high-risk group for infection with the new coronavirus. The probability of severe illness and death after infection is higher than that of the general population. Coupled with the effect of prevention and control in the past period, the overall infection rate of the new coronavirus in my country is low, and the natural immunity obtained is not strong. Although we have obtained a certain amount of immunity through immunization, the escape of the new mutant strain to this immunity is strengthening. Therefore, if it is relaxed and not "dynamic clearance", it will inevitably cause a large number of infections, which may lead to a large number of severe illnesses and even a large number of deaths in the elderly, people with underlying diseases.
Fourth, the Omickron mutant strain is definitely not the last mutant strain of the new coronavirus, and there is great uncertainty. In this case, adhere to the existing prevention and control strategies and adhere to the overall policy of "dynamic zeroing". The prevention and control in the past three years has proved effective, feasible and scientific. In the face of uncertainty, we should use certain strategies and certain policies to fight this uncertainty.
Fifth, long-term harm should be considered. Now scientists from all over the world are very concerned about and worried about the sequelae after infection with , and some studies have shown that a certain proportion of infected people will experience various sequelae such as fatigue, dyspnea, and neurocognitive disorders. They do not fully understand the pathogenic mechanism and final duration of this condition in science. Why can't
"lie flat" like abroad?
From a global perspective, the current prevention and control strategies of most countries have shifted from the previous prevention of infection to focusing on preventing severe illness, death and the prevention of runs of medical resources. But overall, most countries around the world still strengthen necessary personal protection measures, such as wearing masks, maintaining social distance, and strengthening vaccination.
These choices are based on the prevention and control concepts of various countries, the prevention and control capabilities and conditions, and the other is based on whether there are relevant mechanisms, organizational guarantees and mobilization capabilities for the rapid spread of the Omickron mutation.
The country's overall policy of "dynamic zeroing" is determined by the prevention and control concept "people first, life first", and it is also a concrete manifestation of adhering to "everything is for the health of the people and putting people at the center". More importantly, our country now has the conditions and ability to "dynamic zeroing". With these conditions and abilities, we should adhere to "dynamic zeroing", ultimately defeat the disease, and exchange the minimum loss of life and cost to achieve final victory.
If you fully learn what is called "lying flat" abroad, the result will definitely be that the Chinese people will have a large number of infections, which will inevitably lead to a large number of severe illnesses and deaths. This is incompatible with China's culture and anti-epidemic philosophy.
How can epidemic prevention policies be more conducive to resumption of work and production?
First, continuously improve the scientific and accurate level of epidemic prevention and control. All localities are required to speed up the precise work of epidemic investigation. Epidemic prevention and control cannot be simplified, risk areas cannot be delineated on a large scale, and control cannot be replaced by "silence". Medium and high-risk areas should be delineated in a timely and accurate manner, resolute and decisive control measures should be taken promptly, and dynamic adjustments should be made according to changes in the epidemic situation. Those who meet the conditions for unblocking should be unblocked in a timely manner to facilitate people's lives and travel. Schools, catering and other units outside the risk areas should strengthen epidemic monitoring, resolutely avoid "stop it" and minimize the impact of the epidemic on economic and social development.
The second is to reduce the impact of epidemic prevention and control on the people. We will make every effort to ensure the supply of daily necessities and medical needs of the people during the epidemic, and comprehensively coordinate the community's social organizations, owners' committee , property service companies, volunteer service personnel and other forces to ensure that the guarantee is in place, the service is in place, and the warmth is in place. At the same time, we call on the masses to enhance their legal awareness and strictly abide by laws, regulations and policies and measures.
The third is to strengthen guidance on epidemic prevention and control work in various places. Guide all localities to fully implement the various policies and measures of the ninth edition of the prevention and control plan, strengthen training and guidance for epidemic prevention and control policies and measures in various places, promote all localities to strictly implement epidemic prevention and control requirements, and strengthen epidemic prevention and control for key places, key groups, key industries, especially transportation, buses and truck drivers and passengers. We must not only prevent the epidemic, but also ensure the normal operation and development of the industry.How long does it take to return to normal production and life?
Overall, our epidemic prevention and control has achieved phased results, but it has not yet reached the other side of victory. To ultimately defeat the epidemic completely, we need to comprehensively consider the virus mutation, disease infection spectrum, severity changes, as well as the resistance of the health system, our prevention and control capabilities, treatment capabilities, and social public health intervention measures.
We are now in the window period and there are several tasks that need to be done further.
First, we must strengthen our confidence and unify our thinking at present. It is very important to adhere to the overall strategy and general policy and seize this "window period".
The second is to strengthen vaccination, especially vaccination for the elderly, to prevent severe illness and death.
The third is to strengthen the construction of prevention and control and treatment capabilities and corresponding preparations. For example, to prevent medical resources from being run, how can we quickly control and meet the supply of some protective equipment under a large-scale epidemic?
Fourth, we must play a role in science and technology, and increase efforts in the research and development, production and supply of more effective vaccines and more accessible and easier to use drugs. Now we have seen some hope in drug research and development.
Fifth, make good preparations for corresponding material reserves and guarantees, including reserves for epidemic prevention and control materials and material reserves for normal production and life.
Sixth emphasizes speed and accuracy, and emphasizes the prevention of "one-size-fits-all" and "adding layer by layer".
If these are combined and firmly believe, we will definitely be able to ultimately overcome the epidemic. According to National Health Commission website
