market trend is in the afternoon at
precious metals market. Spot gold rose above $1,678/ounce after the minutes were announced, closing up 0.48% to $1,673.26/ounce; spot silver barely defended the $19 mark and closed down 0.85% to $19.03/ounce.
Basic Analysis of Precious Metals
Analysis of the main influencing factors of the market, the following aspects have a great impact on the price trend of precious metals.
First, the minutes of the Feder 9 September FOMC meeting showed that officials believe it is necessary to take action to maintain restrictive policies. The Fed seems to be aware of the risks brought by aggressive rate hikes . Several participants believed the need to calibrate the Fed's austerity policy to mitigate risks. Participants believed that it would be appropriate to slow down the pace of rate hikes at some point while evaluating the cumulative effect of policy adjustments. Once the policy reaches a sufficiently restrictive level, it will be appropriate to maintain that level for a period of time.
Second, British pension funds have made new moves in order to seek cash, and many British companies are facing calls for emergency loans to their employees' pension plans. The Bank of England plans to end its emergency bond purchase plan this Friday, with many British pension institutions scrambling to raise cash to meet collateral requirements caused by rapid government bond volatility. The Chancellor of the UK authorized the Bank of England to increase its asset purchase tool by £100 billion to £966 billion to accommodate temporary Treasury bond purchase plans. The Bank of England maintains countercyclical capital buffer at 2%.
Third, European Central Bank President Lagarde said on Wednesday that euro zone has not fallen into recession and the economy is still growing. ECB Management Committee Holzmann said that if the ECB raises a total of 125bps interest rates at the next two meetings, it will be close to the neutral interest rate level by the end of the year. Sources said ECB policymakers are close to reaching a deal to change the terms of the targeted long-term refinancing operation (TLTRO).
Fourth, U.S. stocks weakened on Wednesday after new inflation data and minutes of the Fed's September meeting were released. S&P 500 fell 11.81 points, or 0.3%, to 3,577.03 points, a new low in the past two years. Dow fell 28.34 points, or 0.1%, to close at 29,210.85 points. Nasdaq Composite Index fell 9.09 points, or 0.1%, to close at 10,417.10 points, the index entered its second bear market in 2022 yesterday, down more than 20% from its recent high hit on August 15.
Overall, yesterday the United States announced the producer price index with leading inflation indicators, with an annual rate of 8.5%, which fell from the previous value of 8.7%. However, the monthly growth rate continued to be out of control, with monthly growth of 0.4%, which was minus 0.1% higher than the previous value of 0.1%. Tonight, the consumer price index will also be released. The current market expects that the US CPI annual rate will be 8.1% in September. In addition, the monthly growth rate will also rise from the previous value of 0.1% to 0.2%. It will be the most important price data released before the Federal Reserve's interest rate resolution in November. Although according to the recent position of officials, the probability of 75 basis points in November is still relatively high, as inflation falls, the economy slows down, when the Federal Reserve successfully reaches its target interest rate, it means that negative news will be exhausted.
precious metals technology analysis
spot gold
According to the gold one-hour line chart, gold prices continued to fluctuate yesterday, and the current price tried to stabilize for four hours 120MA. In addition, the overall market is in a new round of upward channels. In terms of intraday operations, the current market is still waiting for the release of data in the evening. It is expected that the Asian and European sessions will remain mainly volatile, and the main pressure is to focus on the five-day line ($1,688/ounce).
Spot silver
According to the daily silver chart, silver continued to fluctuate yesterday, but you can pay attention to the current price falling to the support of the upward trend line. In terms of intraday operations, avoid short-term short-term and wait for an opportunity to intervene in long orders depending on the support situation.
