Gold technical analysis:
Gold rebounded briefly during the day. As expected, it fell again under pressure near the 5-day line of 1822, the rebound pressure test. During the European trading period, affected by the strong rebound of the US dollar, gold also experienced a sharp decline. At present, The low has fallen to the lower edge of the expected daily level range of 1805-00. Overall, the current trend of gold and the trend of the US index still have a large negative correlation.
The intraday gold trend is highly consistent with expectations, and the overall weak state is also relatively obvious. Even if the current market retreats to the key technical support level, we cannot fully refer to this support to be optimistic about the rise. It is expected that gold may use the 1805-00 area to stop its decline in the evening, but as for the rebound, it is not expected to be large for the time being. Whether the subsequent market will fall below 1800, we need to pay attention to whether the U.S. index will break through the previous high, and even if gold in the evening If there is a rebound, it should be treated as a temporary stop of decline. Technically, it does not support an immediate reversal, and there is no fundamental condition for a strong reversal.
The Federal Reserve will make hawkish remarks again and will be committed to strong interest rate to reduce the crisis of Qualcomm inflation. Gold also fell in response, but we must pay attention to the key watershed mark of 1800 and whether investors buy into the Fed's interest rate cut. It is not yet known, so the risk concerns of economic recession and geopolitical factors are still the best support for the current gold price. In the 4-hour chart, you can see that the falling wedge support 1800 in cannot be regarded as an extremely weak pattern if it is not broken. If it can hold on, it may rebound again, so I personally think that the possibility of a sharp drop in gold is relatively small. Currently, the inflation data PCE and initial application data are bullish for gold prices, so in terms of layout, everyone should not wait for the current price to be 1803. In terms of operation ideas, Lao Kongjian suggested that gold should be bullish at 1800;
; Gold operations: It is recommended to short near the current price of 1825, with a stop loss of 1832, and a target of 1810;
. It is recommended that a retracement of 1803 be bullish, with a stop loss of 1797, and a target of 1820;
. Crude oil trend analysis
Crude oil fluctuated weakly during the day. Although there was a rebound, the amplitude was not large. The pressure was only measured at the top to 110.4. Then the market continued to fluctuate and corrected. Affected by the strong rise of the US dollar during the European trading period, crude oil also retreated again. At present, Lows were around 108. The overall trend of crude oil during the day is in line with expectations. Although a rebound is expected, the kinetic energy of the rebound is not strong. The overall trend is in line with the expectation of rebounding first and then falling back. Therefore, there is a high probability that crude oil will still be weak and volatile in the evening. Once the market returns to the moving average below 108, , then the technical bearish power of crude oil will be strengthened, and the bottom may retrace the previous low of 106.3 or even fall back to the band level, falling back to the 101-100 area to find support.
In the evening crude oil operation, existing short orders can be continued to be held, and the small position should be reduced to around 108, with a capital preservation stop, waiting for the price to fall below 108 in the later period, waving the expectation of the early 106.5-0, or even a band level fall. The evening market does not consider any long-term participation for the time being. Even if there may be competition near 108, the probability of falling below will be greater. If the market rebounds again in the evening, the short-short strategy will be adjusted in real time based on the actual pressure measurement during the day. In terms of crude oil operation ideas, Laokong recommends shorting mainly, and the upper resistance is 110.5.
——This article was contributed by Laokongpanjie HJ088181
(Note: The above article was written by the Laokongpanjie team, please indicate the source when reprinting. Warm reminder, investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. The article has a lag, due to various platform points Due to differences in positions and the delay in network publishing, the above analysis does not provide specific entry points. The operation suggestions are for reference only. Please control your own risks)
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