In the past week, the A-share market has seen an obvious trend of rising and oscillating. Among them, it jumped short and opened high on Monday, leaving a gap, and directly hit the 3,400-point integer mark on Tuesday. Due to the rapid rise of the pulse, the market index deviated from the 5-day line and was overbought, and at the same time it faced a heavy pressure area above. Therefore, starting from Wednesday, the market changed from a strong attack trend to a shock trend, which is basically expected!
For us ordinary retail investors, what we are most concerned about now is, how will the market of A shares go next week? Especially after rebounding for more than two months, the entire market has accumulated a certain amount of profit. Many people are worried at this time, will the market plummet after a few days of volatility?
To figure out this problem, we must do a comprehensive review of some of the major events that just happened in the news this weekend!
First, the new energy vehicle market has returned to the upward trend. Many car companies have achieved record delivery volumes in June, and the second tier has also grown significantly!
The new energy vehicle market has returned to its pre-epidemic upward trajectory, with many car companies’ delivery volumes hitting record highs in June. In the second half of the year, especially in the upcoming July and August, many new models will be released or delivered. New energy vehicle companies will encounter "hand-to-hand combat" in some market segments, and at the same time, the cake of the entire market will also be taken away. Go big.
Judging from the car companies that have disclosed data, the sales rankings in June are GAC Aion, Xpeng, Nezha, Ideal, Weilai, Leapmoon, and Cyrus; if you look at the first half of the year In terms of cumulative sales, only the rankings of Weilai and Leapao are exchanged, and the other rankings remain unchanged. In addition, two "top-tier" car companies, Tesla China and BYD , have not yet announced their delivery volumes.
This is a major benefit for the new energy automobile industry over the weekend! We know that in the A-share market, the coverage of the new energy vehicle industry chain is extremely broad. Taking the recent market as an example, many leading hot spots will benefit from this good news, including auto parts and complete vehicles, which have begun to fluctuate in the past few days, as well as automotive thermal management and lightweight industrial metals. In addition, in the entire power battery theme, lithium batteries, salt lake lithium extraction, and rare earth permanent magnets will all benefit.
If the two core hot sector indexes of auto parts and automobiles can stop falling next week, it will undoubtedly greatly boost market sentiment. Reversing the recent shrinkage in institutional seat buying, the entire market has become active again.
Second, Air China, China Eastern Airlines , China Southern Airlines announced on the same day the purchase of ,292 Airbus aircraft, with a total price of over 240 billion yuan!
On the evening of July 1, China Southern Airlines , Air China and China Eastern Airlines successively officially announced the signing of A320NEO passenger aircraft orders with Airbus. The basic prices of purchasing 96, 96 and 100 A320NEO series aircraft respectively are approximately US$12.248 billion, US$12.213 billion and US$12.796 billion respectively. The three airlines have orders for a total of 292 aircraft. According to the catalog price in January 2020, the total order price of the three major airlines is approximately US$37.257 billion, which is converted into more than 240 billion yuan in RMB.
The three companies also gave their respective reasons for purchasing aircraft. In the announcement, China Eastern Airlines mentioned that based on their confidence in the future development of the civil aviation industry, the companies need to plan and reserve fleet capacity in advance. Both Air China and China Southern Airlines mentioned that this aircraft transaction is in line with the company's fleet development strategy formulated in the 14th Five-Year Plan and will help enhance the company's market competitiveness.
Third, the popularity of traveling from Shanghai to Sanya remains high!
With the relaxation of epidemic prevention and control policies in Shanghai in many places, the popularity of cross-provincial travel in Shanghai continues to rise. Data from multiple online travel platforms show that since June 25, Hainan has become the most popular cross-provincial travel destination in Shanghai. Vacation destination. Among them, from June 25th to June 26th, the search popularity of Sanya by Shanghai tourists increased by 135% compared with the previous weekend.
From June 26 to June 30, the booking volume of packaged products for Shanghai users traveling to Hainan destinations increased by 130% month-on-month, the volume of air ticket bookings increased by 198% month-on-month, and the volume of hotel bookings increased by 134% month-on-month.In terms of B&B , many listings are booked until mid-to-late July, and some listings even show "no room available" until mid-to-late August.
These two pieces of news need to be interpreted together because they both point to the same big theme: the post-epidemic concept!
Careful investors can find that since June, the management's idea of macro-adjustment of has begun to spread the net from the early stage, using an extensive strategy to protect the market as soon as possible. It has obviously shifted to a regulatory approach focused on promoting domestic demand and stimulating consumption. Regarding this point, Jingyang has analyzed it many times in recent articles. From the perspective of the composition of Troika , more than 60% of my country's economy is driven by domestic demand, so we want to accelerate the recovery of economic growth in the second half of the year and promote Consumption protection and domestic demand will have great potential!
In view of this, the joint prevention and control mechanism once again reiterated the nine don'ts on June 24, requiring all localities to strictly implement the nine don'ts for epidemic prevention and control, and not to arbitrarily extend the control time in medium and high-risk areas.
The ninth version of the new crown prevention and control plan issued on June 28 shortened the isolation and control period for close contacts and entry quarantine personnel, adjusting it from "14 days of centralized isolation medical observation + 7 days of home health monitoring" to "7 days of centralized isolation Isolation medical observation + 3 days of home health monitoring." Confidence in travel has been greatly boosted.
On June 29, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that the “star” mark on communication itinerary cards will be cancelled. Within half an hour after the news was released, the instant search volume for international air tickets on the Qunar platform doubled, the search volume for air tickets on the platform increased by 60% within 30 minutes, the search volume for hotels doubled, and the search volume for train tickets increased by up to 1.5 times; Same Journey Travel The search volume for air tickets increased by 180% compared with the same period the day before, and the search volume for hotels increased by 220% compared with the same period the day before.
At this critical moment, news suddenly came out that Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines had purchased large quantities of Airbus orders worth 240 billion yuan. From Jingyang's point of view, it's no coincidence! This can be confirmed from the side that the inflection point repair period of the domestic aviation industry is coming! Behind this is the accelerated recovery of the domestic tourism market after the full resumption of work and production!
For the A-share market, tourist attractions, restaurants and hotels, and airport shipping are the three important branches of the post-epidemic theme. They have been bucking the trend and rising sharply in the past week. It was not until Friday when it became obviously overbought that there was a deep recovery. withdraw. However, according to statistics from Jingyang Capital, when the market fell sharply that day, some institutions took advantage of the chaos and bought in at the low price!
At the same time, Jingyang would like to remind everyone that these three sections are only the frontmost sections of the entire theme. In fact, if the entire theme develops in depth, it will cover the entire major consumption theme, involving food and beverages, liquor and other sectors.
Once the long-term enthusiasm in this big track is completely ignited, it will undoubtedly become the strongest boost to the A-share market!
Judging from the weekend news, there is not much macro news, and the external market also performed stably. Therefore, if the above-mentioned positive effects are not taken into account, the market may continue the volatile trend in the last three days of this week next week, and may even retrace under the pressure of 3400 points. But the good news is that these three good news over the weekend are beneficial to stabilizing old hot spots and driving new hot spots. If market trading activity increases as a result, the probability of a deep hole in the market will be very small!
