Author丨Dong Peng
Edit丨Wu Yanling
Picture Source丨 Visual China
battery grade lithium carbonate single transaction price hit a new high.
On November 2, Baichuan Yingfu data showed that the mainstream quotation range of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) market is between 555,000 and 562,000 yuan, and the average price has risen to 558,000 yuan/ton, but its spot market trade order price is concentrated between 582,000 and 59,000 yuan/ton.
According to the feedback from some front-line market participants, some scattered transactions have reached a high price of 600,000 yuan/ton.
"The price of 15 tons of electric carbon sold yesterday reached 595,000 yuan. The one who received the goods was the trader, and he would definitely have to increase the price for external sales." An employee of the East China lithium salt industry insider said on the 2nd that judging from the recent market increase, the price of scattered orders will reach 600,000 yuan in the past two days.
At the same time, he also said that a battery company recently asked him for a price of 590,000 yuan.
Another trade person reported on the same day that the transaction price of some loose orders has reached 600,000 yuan/ton, and some people downstream are willing to accept the goods at this price.
The reason is also the change in the supply and demand relationship in the short term.
The aforementioned lithium salt industry insider said that "new energy subsidies will be stopped next year, causing material factories and car companies to be busy with delivery at the end of the year, resulting in a surge in demand."
can be seen compared with other lithium salt products that the demand for lithium salts applied to consumers is average, such as lithium manganate , which is basically produced according to downstream orders. Benefiting from the growth of demand for ternary and lithium iron materials, its downstream demand is significantly better, and its tolerance for high-priced lithium salts is also stronger.
Baichuan Yingfu also pointed out that the output in Qinghai may decline due to the heating seasonal gas limit in the future. In addition, the epidemic has affected transportation and logistics, hindered freight transportation again. The manufacturer mainly has long-term contracts for orders, and there are no dispersed orders for export. Based on the current situation, it is still difficult to have a source of goods on the market.
further tracks the output data, which shows that after the domestic lithium carbonate production hit a new high of 35,400 tons in September, the output in October did not increase significantly, and Qinghai's production declined slightly from September month-on-month.
"has indeed reduced a little. Recently, the supply of salt lakes on the market is not as high as before. However, the total amount of salt lakes is not large, and the main supply is still mainly ore. For example, the source of raw materials in Jiangxi's production area is very diversified this year, and the output growth this year is also very obvious." The above-mentioned lithium salt industry insider pointed out that in the final analysis, the demand is still too strong.
It should be pointed out that with the rise of the above loose order prices, the average sales price of the entire lithium salt market will also increase accordingly, and it is still early November.
According to industry expectations, the lithium salt price will remain strong at least in the fourth quarter of this year.
"How much the price rises depends on the terminal demand in the end." The above person said that one thing needs to be noted is that if the sales price of new energy vehicles catches up with luxury brands, such as BYD Han and 3 Series, it may eat up some of the demand for new energy vehicles. Although
is his personal opinion, it is similar to the characteristics of commodity that peaked.
Generally speaking, there are two signs of the peak price of the product. First, when raw material prices rise, the middle and lower reaches will transmit costs to the terminal market. After the terminal products reach a certain critical point, demand will weaken accordingly, resulting in the break of the entire cost transmission chain. Second, the supply side has increased significantly, and the supply-demand tension is expected to improve.
combined with the current lithium salt market situation, although there are no signs above, the driving effect of supply and demand relationships on prices has undoubtedly weakened significantly compared with the second half of 2021 and the first half of 2022.
This is also one of the reasons why the relevant listed companies have excellent profitability, but the stock price has never been better since the end of June. After all, the capital market is more focused on expectations than reality.
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Editor of this issue Li Yutong Intern Luo Xinyu
