Today's Nonferrous Metals Market Analysis
Fed As scheduled hike rate 75 basis points. Powell stated that the rate hike may slow down, but the terminal interest rate and its duration increased. Because it basically meets expectations, most non-ferrous metals mainly fluctuate slightly after the negative news. Among them, Shanghai aluminum rose 1.23%, Shanghai nickel rose
.31%, Shanghai tin fell 2.14%, Shanghai copper fell
.35%. Shanghai zinc fell
.15%, and Shanghai lead fell
.07%. The current market is intertwined with bulls and bears, and non-ferrous metals may remain fluctuating in the short term.
spot market
futures market
tomorrow's non-ferrous metal market trend forecast
copper
Today Shanghai copper main force narrow range fluctuates . As of the closing of the day, the main Shanghai copper 2212 contract closed at 63350, fell 220, and fell by 0.35%. Overnight The Federal Reserve rate hike 75BP was implemented as scheduled, Powell first and then hawks, the US index and US bond yields surged, and the US index continued to rise above 112 in the afternoon, London copper was under pressure and downward, and Shanghai copper was relatively resistant to drop in due to the depreciation of the RMB. The final value of the euro zone in October PMI fell to 46.4, a 29-month low, and was below the boom line for four consecutive months, indicating that the cost of living crisis has seriously weakened demand, and the European manufacturing industry is in recession, and the macro environment is still negative for copper prices.
fundamental , global copper inventory remains destocking, domestic warehouse receipts continue to decline, with a recent monthly difference of about 1,200. The contracts that month still have pressure on delivery , supporting the copper price to remain firm. It is expected that copper prices will remain fluctuating in the short term, and the main force of Shanghai copper is 63000-64000. In terms of operation, it is recommended that downstream replenish goods on demand, and the goods sell at high prices.
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aluminum
As of 3 pm, the main 2212 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose at 18085, and rose by 1.23%; interest rate hike finally came to an end, and Shanghai aluminum rose again in the day when basically in line with expectations, and the main force once again stood above the 18,000 mark. In the short term, in the future, the interest rate hike finally came to an end. It is said that the macro-price impact will become increasingly weak, and aluminum prices will continue to operate around domestic supply and demand and cost. Due to the lack of more intuitive positive driving of the market at present, consumption will continue to be weak, and the continuous decline in profit will prompt companies to continue to reduce production before the end of the year. However, even so, the market will find it difficult to get rid of the weak pattern of supply and demand. It is expected that aluminum prices will continue to rise to a limited extent. The main force is paying attention to the pressure level at 18,300. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see for a while and be wary of the possibility of repeated adjustments to aluminum prices.
lead
Today, the overall lead in Shanghai showed a trend of first decline and then rise, and continued to rise in the afternoon to recover some fell . The main contract 2212 was 15165, fell 10, and fell by 0.07%. The Fed's interest rate hike overnight is in line with expectations, and Powell was also very cautious in his later speech. The repeated impact of the epidemic in many places in the domestic market may have partial impact on the economy. The overall macroeconomic situation is expected to remain relatively short, and the pressure above Shanghai lead is unlikely to be fully released. In the short term, it will be maintained that consolidation is mainly in the range of 15,000 to 15,300. The spot lead price has dropped by at 25, and the mainstream price is 15,000. Native refineries in the spot market are price-promoting, but the consumption intention of downstream storage companies has weakened recently. However, the inventory of lead ingots is difficult to transport and there is no obvious accumulation of inventory. The short-term lead price is expected to continue to fluctuate around 15,000, but it may face the risk of a decline in supply and demand in the middle and late periods.
zinc
Today, the main force of Shanghai zinc 2212 fluctuated narrowly, at the end of the trading session fell . As of the closing, the main force of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,770 yuan, fell 35, and fell by 0.15%. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75BP overnight, in line with market expectations. Powell stated that it was a hawkish. Although the pace of interest rate hikes may slow down, the terminal interest rate and maintenance time exceeded expectations, and the medium- and long-term negative news remained unchanged. Short-term , Shanghai zinc may fluctuate most, focusing on the range of 22,000-23,800. At the same time, the spot premium has risen again, the monthly difference has increased, and pay attention to the risk of squeezing positions under low inventory.
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tin
Today both internal and external tin prices are weak. As of 3 pm, the foreign tin closed at US$17,525 fell 2.64%; the main domestic Shanghai tin main force in the late trading fell also exceeded 2%. The poor performance on the consumer side dragged down the tin price, and it still tended to be weak at low levels in the short term. The key support level in the medium term is at the 150,000 mark, mainly short-term, and the short-term idea is mainly; the spot market is expected to still have some tin ingots on Friday lowered .
nickel
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 points. Powell's remarks were hawkish, and the intraday metals were under pressure. Shanghai nickel lacked buying power at a high level, and the overall performance was weak first and then strong. Jinchuan Group raises the ex-factory price of by 1,000. Jinchuan nickel premium continues to lower to 5,300 to around 5,300. Russian nickel premium is about 3,300 and nickel bean premium is about 3,000. The trading atmosphere in the spot market is relatively low, and some buyers inquire about prices, and the actual shipment volume is low, and the market continues to be a light situation before.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points, indicating that interest rate hikes should continue, but the rate hikes will slow down. Powell repeatedly emphasized the view that lowered and lowered inflation in his speech. The overall meeting content was hawkish and negative. The global economic situation is not good for metal prices, but under the background of high inflation, some investors may be attracted to buy metals to avoid asset shrinkage. The overall nickel market is oversupply and demand, the price of refined nickel is far higher than the fundamentals, and the demand for refined nickel is weak. Macro and supply and demand fundamentals are negative.
inventory is relatively low, making it easy for funds to speculate on nickel prices; currently Shanghai nickel is forming a weak trend in sideways trading at a high level, and the technical signal is relatively weak. If there is no major capital that will rise strongly, it is expected that the probability of Shanghai nickel falling at a high level is relatively high. If retail investors short a lot, funds will vigorously raise the nickel price and squeeze to stop loss . Medium and long-term nickel is expected to be expected to fall and .
