The stock market has gone out of polarization this week. GEM is the first to bear the brunt and has started the adjustment mode. The Shenzhen Component Index and Shanghai Composite Index are stronger. However, looking at the situation, it is estimated that they will not be strong for long. After all, Now A shares do have a trend of adjustment.
Why is this?
mainly has the following reasons.
First, the gap is obvious. This gap exists at both the daily level and the weekly level. If it is only at the daily level, it is nothing. However, the gap at the weekly level is unusual. Therefore, This point is more important.
Second, multi-level and multi-level divergence resonates. The emergence of divergence shows that as the index rises, its momentum is insufficient. Moreover, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are still diverging from to . This is not only reflected in MACD, but also in On the turnover.
Thirdly, the annual line is also gradually flattening above, and the Shanghai Composite Index is very close to the annual line. The GEM took the lead in adjusting the market even before it was close to the annual line. This can illustrate one point, that is, the annual line The selling pressure is taking effect.
Based on the above three reasons, the author believes that the stock market is unlikely to continue to rise in the short term. Instead, it is more likely that the stock market will fluctuate at a sub-high level or fluctuate and fall. No matter which one, it shows that in the short term The opportunities in the stock market are not great.
Because the current A stock market is still repairing technical shortcomings. Under this situation, tomorrow, the stock market situation will not be good, and even next week, the stock market situation will not be very good, even if it will rise , then it will not break through the annual line.
Therefore, there is not much room for growth, but there is not much room for decline.
However, today, two major signals are coming. Will the stock market be worse tomorrow?
The first major signal , you can see that it is now July, and the market in the second half of 2022 has begun. However, there are some subtleties in the stock market in the second half of this year. Why is this? The main reason is that the pressure to lift the ban is too great.
data shows that based on the last trading day of this week, , stocks with a market value of 2,738.7 billion will be lifted in the second half of this year. Compared with this data in the first half of this year, the difference has actually increased by 582.4 billion.
In other words, in the second half of this year, the pressure on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets to lift the ban will increase significantly. Especially in the third quarter, that is, in the three months from July to September, the market value of A-shares after the ban was lifted was even more Reached 1,366.2 billion.
It can be seen that there is a lot of pressure to lift the ban in the third quarter of this year. According to statistics related to , the market value of the lifting of the ban in July reached 482.3 billion, while the market value of the lifting of the ban in August reached 465.9 billion, and the market value of the lifting of the ban in September reached 482.3 billion. 417.9 billion.
Obviously, this month is the most stressful month to lift the ban in the third quarter, so the stock market is under greater pressure this month. Obviously, this month is a small peak for the lifting of the ban this year. Therefore, this signal will have a greater impact on the subsequent Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets.
The second largest signal is . The Shanghai Composite Index has shown a small-level bearish signal on the daily level. KDJ, MACD, and the so-called energy indicators all have the phenomenon of crossing , which is obviously a short side. began to gradually occupy a dominant position.
If there is only a single indicator, then the possibility of reversal is indeed unlikely. However, now that multiple indicators have shown short signals, the stock market will most likely be worse in the short term. Moreover, there is still a gap above. Departure and so on.
Therefore, with the two major signals coming today, the stock market will be even worse tomorrow. Even the stock market will face greater pressure throughout July, not only the pressure to lift the ban, but also the selling pressure from above. It can be said that It is the combined force of multiple pressures.
Moreover, the three major A-share indexes have now entered a sub-high sideways and volatile market from the previous continuous rebound. Sideways is a disorderly trend, but the watershed of sideways is most likely to be the annual line. .
The author still says the same thing. In July, the three major A-share indexes will most likely run below the annual line and will not break through the suppression of the annual line. Moreover, the rebound has continued this week, and the three major Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes have not yet exited the mid-term. The sideways market, what does this mean?
This shows that the current exchange of chips in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is not sufficient, and there is a high probability that the market will still be washed and smashed.
