Last week, the overall market fluctuated at a high level. ChiNext hit a high for 5 days and fell back to the 10-day moving average. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index was relatively strong and trended sideways. Judging from the time-sharing and periodic indicators of the index, they have been exhausted and there is a need for adjustment, especially The 60, 90 and 120 minutes of the Shanghai Stock Index are all tops and deviate from the state. There is also the hottest sector in the early stage, new energy vehicles, which has reached a high and fallen for a few days. If it falls further, there is a risk of breaking the position. The good thing is that after several days of adjustment, the index is still above the short-term support, and is in a bullish trend. Objectively speaking, the recent trend is very strong. Many adjustments are completed intraday or fall one day and then rebound the next day.
Last week we discussed a question, that is, will this round of rise be so strong that it will fall again? The answer is yes. Looking back at history, no market has risen in a straight line. There will be adjustments of various sizes in the process, because the funds on the market are limited. If you want to continue to push the market higher, new funds must continue to participate. In addition, Part of the source of funds is from high selling on the market, then falling and then covering up positions has become a new motivation for long, so market adjustment is certain, but this rare strong trend has made many people forget the risks and no longer If you believe that the market will fall, you will be scolded for even reminding yourself of the risks. This is a very dangerous thing, because you have seen the same scene countless times in the stock market for more than ten years, and the final outcome is always tragic.
The current trend I define is 3400-3440. This range is the top area. It cannot be said to be a big top, at least a mid-term top. Once the adjustment here is confirmed, it will last for at least half a month, and the space will not be as painless as before. It doesn’t hurt to fall and then pull up. It’s similar to March 2019 and July 2020. Everyone should be mentally prepared. It’s just that this trend is very strong and building a top is complicated. It will continue to attract bulls and see the market again and again before the real decline begins. Last week, I asked everyone to pay attention to the single-day negative line as a confirmation signal for adjustment. It has not yet appeared. Weekly. The adjustment of five is still in the scope of shock. The adjustment above the 10-day moving average is not considered a breakout and may be repeated. If last Thursday's high of 3417 does not break through, subsequent adjustments will at least see 3312, and then 3207-3143, so the current The strategy is very simple. If you have coins, wait and see, and if you have stocks, buy the rallies. If you are reluctant to sell on the left side and are worried that it will continue to rise, you can also wait for on the right side to effectively fall below the 10 day moving average before selling. 5, June is on the rise, and July is generally an adjustment month. Be patient and wait for the market to give you an opportunity to enter the market at a low level.
