International crude oil prices have been fluctuating during this period, fluctuating between US$105 and US$115 most of the time.
However, on July 5, international crude oil prices suddenly fell sharply . As of the close of trading on July 5, U.S. WTI August crude oil futures closed down $8.93 at $99.50 per barrel, a decrease of 8.24%; London Brent crude oil futures price fell by 10.73 US dollars to 102.77 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 9.45%;
On July 6, international crude oil continued to fall slightly . As of the close of the day, the New York Mercantile Exchange was delivered in August. The price of light crude oil futures fell by US$0.97, closed at US$98.53 per barrel, a decrease of 0.97%; the price of London Brent crude oil futures for September delivery fell by US$2.08, closing at US$100.69 per barrel, a decrease of 2.02%. ; Brent crude oil CFD fell below the US$100 mark and closed at US$99.67.
After the sharp drop in international crude oil prices, everyone finally saw hope that oil prices may usher in the third drop of the year.
At 24:00 on July 12, my country’s refined oil products will usher in a new round of adjustment window period. As of July 7, it is the seventh observation day of this round of refined oil adjustment cycle, which was affected by the sharp drop in crude oil on July 5. , So far, the change rate of crude oil is about 3.5%. Based on this change rate of crude oil, it is expected that domestic diesel will be reduced by about 260 yuan per ton on July 12, which is equivalent to a reduction of about 0.2 yuan per liter of No. 92 gasoline.
Of course, there are still three observation days before the current round of refined oil adjustment window period. As for whether the final oil price will be adjusted upward or downward, the extent of the adjustment will depend on the performance of crude oil in the next three working days.
Judging from the actual performance of crude oil observations in the past, if crude oil fell significantly in the first seven working days, and the decline reached more than 2%, then during this round of refined oil adjustment cycle, crude oil will most likely be lowered.
In this round of refined oil adjustment cycle, the change rate of crude oil has reached about 3.5% as of the seventh observation day. Therefore, this crude oil downward adjustment is basically not a big problem. It just depends on the final adjustment range.
Then why did the oil price drop so obviously during this round of refined oil adjustment cycle? Will it continue to fall in the future? Can oil prices return to the 6 yuan era?
Let’s first take a look at why international crude oil has fallen sharply in recent days.
html The reason why international crude oil prices fell sharply on July 5 is actually more of a reaction to market sentiment and not a reflection of the true supply and demand relationship in the crude oil market.
During this period, in the context of the Federal Reserve substantial interest rate , global liquidity has further tightened, and commodities, including crude oil, have experienced downward pressure.
Moreover, after three rounds of interest rate hikes, the Federal Reserve still has not been able to effectively control inflation in the United States. According to relevant data, it is expected that the CPI increase in the United States in June may reach 8.9%, and may even exceed 9% in the next few months. close.
In the face of rising inflationary pressure, the Federal Reserve may further raise interest rates in the future. According to current market forecasts, at the interest rate meeting in July, the Federal Reserve may continue to raise interest rates by 75 basis points.
Once the Federal Reserve continues to increase interest rates in the future Not only will market liquidity decrease, many people are even beginning to worry that the economies of relevant countries, including the United States, may begin to fall into recession.
According to Goldman Sachs economists predict, the probability of the U.S. economy falling into recession next year is 30%, and the probability of falling into recession within the next two years is about 50%.
In addition to the United States, Europe is also likely to fall into economic recession. Institutional analyst Juan Chamorro said that due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and potential economic recession concerns, oil prices have risen rapidly, and demand uncertainty has increased in the second half of the year. The euro zone GDP growth rate is expected to be 2.7% in 2022, 270 basis points lower than 2021, and 1.9% in 2023; in addition, Bloomberg recession forecast model shows that Europe has a 30% possibility in the next 12 months Sexual decline.
In the context of the economic slowdown or even recession in some major countries and regions around the world, the international demand for crude oil has also begun to decrease.
Although the oil inventories of some members of the International Energy Agency have begun to decline, one fact that cannot be ignored is that their refined oil inventories are gradually increasing.
According to the crude oil and refined oil inventory data released by the United States on June 29, although U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 2.762 million barrels more than expected, refined oil inventories rose sharply by 2.559 million barrels in June, which was supposed to be the peak season. This shows that against the backdrop of rising energy resources, demand for refined oil is gradually slowing down or even decreasing.
Against the background of weak market demand, everyone is not very optimistic about the future prospects of crude oil, so many funds have withdrawn from the crude oil market. This is one of the important driving forces for this round of crude oil decline.
Will oil prices continue to fall in the future? Can oil prices return to the 6 yuan era?
Seeing that international crude oil prices have fallen during this period, everyone hopes that it will continue to fall, preferably to around 60 US dollars. And according to the predictions of some institutions, by the end of 2022, crude oil prices may fall back to around 65 US dollars. This Is hope possible?
In fact, this round of decline in refined oil products is more of an emotional reaction. From the perspective of market supply and demand, crude oil is still likely to fluctuate at high levels in the future.
Although the international crude oil futures have fallen significantly, the international crude oil spot price is still relatively high. The spot prices of Brent crude oil on July 5 were US$102.77 and US$115.33 per barrel respectively, which is equivalent to the spot price being nearly 13% higher than the futures price. US dollars; while the spot price of Dubai crude oil was US$111.01 per barrel, an increase of US$2.61 from the previous trading day.
And on July 5, Saudi Arabia also raised the official selling price of crude oil in August, ranging from 2.8 to 3.5 US dollars, of which the price increase in Asia reached 3.5 US dollars / barrel.
Therefore, from the perspective of market supply and demand, crude oil is still likely to be at a high level in the future. The short-term decline will not be enough to affect the long-term trend of crude oil. Everyone expects domestic gasoline and diesel to fall back to the 7 yuan era or even the 6 yuan era, which is unlikely in the short term. realistic.
