Preserve capital, keep your heart, seek breakthroughs, think a little every day, act and cherish [Rose]
The first half of 2022 ended with ups and downs. As one of the world's most resilient stock markets, the A-share market once again exerts a "safe haven" effect. Smart money "capital from the north" rushed to enter the market, the turnover of the two cities returned to one trillion, and the valuation advantage of A shares continued to be significant. Market outlook and investment opportunities for the second half of the year!
Pictures from the Internet, infringement and deletion
3-June, Beijing Capital continued to make net purchases
[Review of the first half of the year]
In the first half of 2022, A-shares fell sharply in the first quarter. The Shanghai Composite Index fell to 2863 points in March. Falling into doubt about life. In the end, it can be said that "all the hard work comes with joy", with a strong counterattack in May and June, Science and Technology Innovation Board , Growth Enterprise Market both rebounded from their lows by more than 20%, and the Shanghai Composite Index is only one step away from a technical bull market (crossing the annual line) , 3400 points are up for grabs.
Shanghai Composite Index Market Sentiment Chart
The decline of A-shares in the first half of the year was mainly affected by three major factors: 1. Pressure on the domestic economy and ICBC; 2. Inflation in the United States reached a new high, and the Federal Reserve entered an interest rate hike cycle; 3. The start of the Russia-Ukraine war ; Due to the resonance of multiple factors, A shares were still in a downward trend in the first half of the year.
In the first half of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 6.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 13.20%, and the GEM fell by 15.41%. After excluding new shares, the A-share market value evaporated by 9.39 trillion yuan in the first half of the year. Based on the latest 205 million shareholders, the per capita loss was still 46,000 yuan. Of course, if we look at the A-share rebound on April 27, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rebounded by more than 17%, the Shenzhen Component Index rebounded by 26%, and the GEM rebounded by about 30%. The value of the A-share market has increased by 13.02 trillion yuan from its lowest point. Based on the latest 205 million shareholders, the per capita income is 63,500 yuan!
In this golden pit, have you copied at the bottom of ?
come to the interactive area to chat about your results!
In the first half of the year, the style differentiation of the A-share market was more obvious. The low valuation sector has resisted the decline as a whole, Shanghai Composite 50 is the best performing group in the market, with a cumulative decline of 6.59%, lower than the Shanghai Composite Index over the same period. The growth sector retreated collectively, with the GEM Index falling more than 15% and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index retreating as much as 20.92%.
[Funding Direction]
Against the backdrop of global market turmoil, the anti-fall properties of A-shares have once again appeared, and foreign capital inflows will accelerate in 2022. In the first half of the year, the cumulative net inflow of northbound funds was 71.799 billion yuan. Looking at a single month, only March saw a net outflow of northbound funds, and the rest of the months were net inflows.
In the first quarter, affected by disturbing factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, balance sheet reduction, and geopolitical factors between Russia and Ukraine, capital risk appetite further decreased. In March, the net outflow of northbound funds reached 45.083 billion yuan. In the second quarter, as domestic epidemic prevention and control took effect and work and production resumed from April to May, capital going north turned from outflow to inflow. In June, although there were still disturbances from overseas interest rate hikes and recession expectations, the Chinese market gradually showed its comparative advantages, attracting capital inflows from north to accelerate, with a significant net inflow of 72.96 billion yuan in a single month. Taking into account the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and the fact that the inflow of funds from the north in the second half of the year is usually greater than that in the first half of the year, with the launch of the “interconnection” between the mainland and Hong Kong in July, funds from the north are expected to accelerate back into A-shares in the second half of the year.
[The most monster stocks and the worst stocks in the first half of this year]
In terms of the most monster stocks, in the first half of this year, ST Shida led the pack with 41 daily limits, and the increase was as high as 238%. In terms of the number of times fell to the limit, , Dexin Transportation There have been 20 lower limits. In addition, the ones on the list are all ST concept stocks .After excluding ST stock , Huitong Group was the only stock that exceeded the 30 daily limit in the first half of the year, with an increase of 295%; in terms of the number of daily limit drops, Dexin Transportation still became the worst stock with 20 daily limit drops. You are shocked. What?
[About delisting system ]
It is worth noting in the first half of the year that 2022 is the second year of the implementation of the "most stringent new delisting regulations in history". The A-share market has ushered in a large-scale delisting wave. In the first half of the year There are as many as 35 A-share delisting stocks. In the future, full registration will be implemented. More companies with no growth, no performance, and no competitiveness may slowly decline. The road of penny stocks is no longer long. Regarding the risks of delisted stocks, everyone Must be on guard! Next, you need to be sharp-eyed when operating. When trying to get rid of the stocks, you should pay attention to the fundamentals and whether the company has illegal activities. The delisting system is no longer a decoration. You must prevent yourself from becoming a real shareholder with only the number of shares left in your hand!
Looking forward to the second half of the year, how will A-shares fare? What are the opportunities?
[Looking forward to the second half of the year]
The linkage between domestic and overseas market liquidity and valuation is gradually digested, and the fundamentals are gradually becoming independent. Before the Federal Reserve further accelerates the "water withdrawal", A-shares may move out of a relatively independent market and focus more on expectations of stable domestic growth and corporate profit restoration.
Brokerage opinion: A-shares are expected to achieve an upward trend in the second half of 2022.
CITIC Securities said: As positive and favorable factors gradually increase, China's economy will catch up in the second half of the year. It is expected that the second quarter will be the economic low point of the year, and the economy will pick up in the second half of the year. The single-quarter economic growth rate in the third and fourth quarters will be Returning to strength, it is still expected to achieve a relatively reasonable and high growth rate on a global scale throughout the year. Policies have worked together to support the rapid recovery of the economy, external risk pressures have eased, and the A-share slow bull has reappeared. The market situation during the year can be divided into three stages: emotional calming, valuation restoration, and valuation switching. The current market is in the second stage.
According to CICC, the current valuation of China's stock market is at a low level in the historical range and has mid-line value. However, the internal and external environment of the market may still face certain challenges in the second half of the year. The market upside in the second half of the year needs the support of more positive catalysts, and it is not appropriate to be overly pessimistic in the mid-term. In terms of liquidity, interest rates may be stable and trend downward, and the improvement of stock market liquidity depends on the improvement of risk appetite. For investors, industry allocation should focus on "stability" and defend first before attacking.
CITIC Securities said that after the short-term A-share market rebounded in the "golden pit", it still faces a series of fundamental challenges. Investors need to remain patient and wait for bargain hunting. It is expected that after a new round of policy increases, the market will It is expected to rise again in the third quarter, and the growth style will take the lead.
Pictures come from the Internet, infringement and deletion
My opinion is a high probability: the market will have twists and turns in the second half of the year
but it is expected to regain lost ground in the end!
4. In May, the valuation of A-shares fell back to a low level. The policy bottom + valuation bottom were formed in the second quarter. Gold should be found in the gold pit. However, after a round of sharp rises, there has been no decent shock adjustment. Even if it is short squeezed to challenge the 250-year line, it will eventually be difficult to escape the need for adjustment.
When the external market adjusts significantly in the next half year, the Chinese market may also be affected to some extent. However, from a macro perspective, in terms of the current domestic monetary environment, it is difficult to say that the A-share market will end, and the probability is that there will be twists and turns. Because China's " investment clock " is from recession in the first half of the year to weak recovery in the second half of the year, while Europe and the United States are still stagflation-like in the second half of the year, and may go from stagflation-like to recession; the current price-performance ratio of the Chinese stock market can be said to be the best in the world The best, especially Hong Kong stocks ; not only compared with overseas markets, but even compared with itself, the valuation is at a historically low level. With the improvement of fundamentals, the price/performance ratio is very high. In the medium and long term, the trend has not changed. In the short term It is not a bad thing to take the initiative to adjust after rising too fast. The purpose is to adjust to new room for growth. The adjustment is mainly based on economic data and the verification of the performance of listed companies. It takes time. There are still opportunities for individual stocks in July, but it is difficult for the index to perform particularly well, so you must be mentally prepared. .
From a technical point of view
Since our large A shares bottomed out on April 27, the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 17.74% from 2863 points. It is true that a lot of profits have been accumulated, and the leading sectors such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, wind energy and other theme funds have begun to fluctuate and adjust. Some high-level leading stocks funds have obviously fled, and the funds are mainly switching between high and low, but for the time being, the volume is It may be that we are just changing positions, rather than withdrawing from the market, so there will still be structural opportunities after the adjustment is over.
The new energy vehicle sector has entered into an adjustment.
The photovoltaic sector has continued to rise.
The wind energy sector has continued to rise.
After a sharp rise in the short term, the normal adjustment will first fill the gap in the jump, or take the opportunity to adjust to 20 at a certain point in July. Profit taking is digested near the daily or 30-day moving average, but this does not change the long-term upward trend of the index. Therefore, during the shock adjustment in the second half of the year, we must face it rationally. As long as we manage the position well, can be calm and calm, and it will inevitably fall. 2863 points have been leveraged. There is really no need to panic about some small adjustments. The key is to make good adjustments and seize the opportunity to select stocks. You cannot miss the next round of theme opportunities, otherwise this year will be in vain.
The market is upward in the mid-term, and any shocks are caused by adjustments and repairs.
There is no market that only rises but never falls. Moderate consolidation is conducive to the subsequent market development.
Of course, there is no need to guess and adjust . has recently taken the initiative to adjust near the annual line. It depends on the depth of the adjustment. A good and simple way is to 1. See when the volume can be lower than the "Dragon Vein Line" (the 120-day moving average line ); 2. See when the trading line sends out the S point signal (the 5-day and 13-day moving averages die Cross ) This is the simplest method. When the S point signal is issued again, it means that the market risk has reduced. At that time, no matter whether you are making money or making a small loss, you must take the initiative to reduce your position and keep funds in hand, so that you can better cope with the market and seize new opportunities. Theme opportunities.
For investors who have missed this round of rising prices, you can take advantage of this adjustment to make good stock selections. Don’t miss the market opportunities in the second half of the year. There are still many undervalued high-growth varieties in the market today that are worth investing in. Digging.
[About operation]
When there is a shock period in the future, it is still necessary to use "scientific position control" to resist the risk of market adjustment. It is best to continue to adopt the 33:33:33 position strategy. How does
understand this position management strategy?
1, that is, the "bottom position" strategy of about 33%:
This fund can continue to stick to low, good and wrong companies and focus on good companies. This type of funds is mainly medium and long-term value investment. Of course, value investment does not mean that it is just long-term holding regardless of the rise or fall. For stocks, you still need to keep track of the company's latest fundamental changes, especially the performance of this year's interim report, such as Wuliangye , Changchun High-tech, Opcon, Juewei Foods, Eston, Ecovacs, Tianqi Lithium , Ganfeng Lithium, Tianci Materials, New Zhoubang , Chint Electric, etc. must promptly revise their operating decisions after their performance comes out. Value investing is not just blindly holding shares. The simplest way is to look at Trading line, when the S point signal is issued in the short period (the 5-day and 13-day moving averages cross heavy volume) or the dynamic valuation is too high, you can reduce the position and lock in profit, but there is no need to clear the position and re-issue the B point signal (5-day moving average) Continue to repeat the band operation when it is in conjunction with the 13-day moving average ( golden cross ), and combine the configuration. Do not blindly stick to the position or do not reduce the position when it is overvalued.
2, that is, the "move position" strategy at about 33%:
This fund continues to look for opportunities for new hot topics. When new short-term themes arise, it can continue to be active stocks in strong stocks. This type of funds mainly runs fast in the short term and has a fast pace.
3. The remaining 33% of the "idle" strategy:
means that during this period of capital shock, rest is the main focus. When the market is affected and falls sharply or stops falling after a major adjustment, it can be used to make T or grab short-term opportunities. , this requires some T-strength. If the hands-on ability is relatively weak, simply let this part of the funds rest temporarily, and then make arrangements after it becomes hot again.
What are the opportunities ahead?
In the second half of the year, the market will further focus on the hard technology sectors represented by new energy, semiconductors, and military industry, and lay out a high-prosperity growth track along the two main lines of "certainty" + "high elasticity".
The first is the main line of "strong certainty + high prosperity", including photovoltaics, wind power, military industry, UHV, Yuanverse, semiconductors and 5G; the second is the main line of "greater flexibility + high prosperity", including high-end manufacturing (robots ) New energy vehicle related industry chains, and intelligent driving (autonomous driving) and other tracks, Yuan Universe, etc.
⚠️ Note: No matter how good the logic is, you have to combine the market ups and downs trend to choose the timing of intervention and exit. Do not blindly chase the rise, and trade calmly based on your own trading system. The above content is only based on static analysis, not dynamic trading guidance. It is for reference and learning purposes only. It is not used as a basis for buying and selling. Investment is risky, so be cautious when entering the market!
No matter what stock selection method you use, you must pay attention to the latest K-line trend. You should not be a picker. If it has already risen on the day, do not chase it. You would rather miss it on the day than make a mistake. Preserving the principal is the most important. ; The stock continues to strengthen. To look at the following points: First, look at the [trend]
K line pattern should change obviously, and the moving average should be arranged in a long position (breaking through the key moving average, such as standing firm on the 20 moving average or breaking through the Bollinger Middle Track, breaking through the BBI line, etc. or on the 5th, 10th, and 20th moving average long arrangement);
The second is to see [volume energy]
has enlarged the "Dragon Vein Line" (trading volume 120 moving average);
The third is to see [funds]
whether the chips are concentrated, has mainstream funds participating, and the chips are highly locked; Funds determine the trend and space of stocks. With the intervention of large funds, it is easier to detonate ;
The fourth is to look at [quality] The company's quality fundamentals are good, profitability is strong, and it is better to be the best in the industry segment.
#stock# #stockfinance# #I am creating in the headlines# #I want to be on the headlines# # Hundreds of fans rise to thousands of fans#
It is not easy to code words, friends passing by Feel free to like [Like] to support it. Your support is my source of motivation. To prevent important content from being lost, it is recommended to add it to favorites first.
