The commodity index showed an adjustment trend today after rebounding for two consecutive days. In the afternoon, the market rebounded and then pulled back, but the strength was average. The market still has to wait for chemical resonance. The rebound in the past two days has been driven by black alone, and the chemical industry has been very weak. However, if the market wants to rebound well, multiple sectors must work at the same time. Now it seems that only chemical industry and black have the best chance. If black still rebounds alone , the rebound here will be difficult to sustain. To short , still has to wait for the commodity index to fall below 205.
Building materials: Looking at the market operation characteristics from the inventory data operation structure, the pressure on the supply side continued to ease this week, and the circulation of industrial chain resources has eased compared with the previous period. The decline in output has stimulated downstream demand, and both steel mills and market inventories have declined. Appearance Demand continues to increase. Taken together, under the current background of weak demand and continuous subtraction on the supply side, loose supply and demand for threads will turn to tightness.
rebar 2210 contract: high altitude, support: 4300-4280, suppression: 4400-4420; rebar today shot higher and fell back to , the rebound in the 30-minute cycle is over, and there is a high probability that it will fall back and adjust for 1-2 trading days, so next You can participate in short orders on the trading day. You can continue to buy low after the adjustment is over.
Under the dual pressure of the reality of active production cuts by steel mills and the expectation of passive production cuts, iron ore demand has weakened month-on-month, and ore prices have come under pressure.
Iron Ore 2209 contract: high altitude, suppression: 815-820, support: 715-730; the iron ore daily M-top structure broke in the early stage, and the market has been in a rebound stage recently. Today, it closed the K-line with shock adjustment, short-term The rally may be over.
Soda ash inventory is already at a low level. There is currently no large-scale cold repair plan for the glass production line. Soda ash consumption will continue to remain stable. In addition, considering that the sales of new energy vehicles have improved, photovoltaic has been put into production beyond expectations, and the overall consumption performance of soda ash More eye-catching.
Soda ash 2209 contract: shock, support: 2780-2800, suppression: 2910--2900; the large level of soda ash can be seen as a wide shock of 2540-3250. After the daily line breaks through the small shock platform upward, it hits 2910-2900 today. Suppression, the next trading day will enter a volatile trend.
Glass inventory remains at a high level. The sluggish downstream consumption has made it difficult to digest the inventory. At present, the glass factory has not entered a state of substantial loss, so there has been no large-scale maintenance of the glass production line recently.
glass 2209 contract: wait and see/appropriate layout, support: 1600-1620, suppression: 1700-1730; the graphic structure is temporarily in a downward cycle, and there is no anti-fall structure [such as W/L type] on the daily line. Today it shot high and fell, the daily You can pay attention to whether MACD has a bottom and deviates from the trend. The bulls have still not improved, so they have to wait a little longer.
Rubber 2209 contract: bottom/low long, support: 12400-12450, suppression: 13500-13550; whether the daily W bottom can be established is directly related to whether the bull market will appear in the later period. Today, the bulls began to try upward to break through the downward trend line If it is suppressed, pay attention to whether the market can stabilize tomorrow; the short-term support is 12650-12600. Short-term trading can rely on the support to enter the market. In the large-cycle, pay attention to the construction of a W-shaped bottom and be patient.
Ethylene glycol 2209 contract: shock, support: 4400-4420, suppression: 4560-4540; the daily line has not yet shown an obvious signal of stabilization, and the hourly level has emerged from the W-shaped bottom form . At the same time, MACD has a bottom divergence trend, and the market has recovered. needs. Pay attention to support and suppression in the next trading day.
Methanol 2209 contract: high altitude, support: 2520-2500, suppression: 2680-2700; methanol has rebounded for two consecutive days. If it continues to rebound to the suppression level tomorrow without an effective direct breakthrough, you can try to test short positions near the suppression level. , make a short wave.
3P [PP, plastic, PVC]: The terminal factory’s intention to receive goods is mainly based on rigid demand, and the improvement of spot digestion is limited. It is observed that the macroeconomic background is gradually stabilizing. It seems that the resilience of the economy still exists and there is no sign of a serious recession. In addition, with the active guidance of my country's economic stabilization policy, the extreme panic is gradually dissipating.Take the
PVC2209 contract as an example: low long, support: 7200-7150, suppression: 7450-7500; the daily line has not yet seen a bottom structure, and the hourly cycle has entered a concussive trend and is expected to get out of the W-shaped bottom. At the same time, MACD is expected to have a bottom divergence, so There is a need for repair. Try low long operations on the next trading day.
