issue | ||
LME copper price | 7558 USD/ton | drop 197 |
LMEaluminum price | 2234 USD /ton | drop 57 USD /ton |
Shanghai copper2211 | 63460 yuan/ton | drop 820 yuan/ton |
Shanghai copper2212 | 62400 yuan /ton | drop 1070 yuan/ton |
Shanghai aluminum2211 | http://www.sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/sub.com/ ml1418095 yuan/ton | drop 315 yuan/ton |
Shanghai aluminum2212 | 17970 yuan/ton | drop 340 yuan/ton |
One week copper aluminum market analysis
This week, the processing fee of 8mm fine copper rods in the mainstream domestic market was significantly lowered, and the northern market was the most prominent; the transaction performance of fine copper rods was poor, and the purchase phenomenon was obvious; the production performance of recycled copper rods was stable, and the manufacturer had sufficient raw material reserves; the price difference of fine waste copper rods expanded again, but the boost of recycled copper rods was limited; in the future, the demand for recycled copper rods still had certain advantages due to the repair of the price difference of fine scrap copper rods, but the problem of tight spot stock may become an important factor for the demand to tilt towards fine copper rods; and as time goes by, market demand will gradually enter a downward trend, and it is expected that subsequent demand will gradually weaken, and the delivery time may become an important watershed in the reflection of the demand for fine scrap copper rods.
1. fine copper rod market: processing fees have been reduced month-on-month, and market demand has also weakened
According to research statistics, the processing fees of 8mm fine copper rods in domestic mainstream markets fell month-on-month this week, mainly driven by the decline in market demand, both market processing fees and fine copper premiums have fallen.
East China, the market processing fee is pulled down below 1,000 yuan, the mainstream market quotation is between 900 and 950 yuan/ton, and there are sporadic low-priced quotations at 800 yuan/ton, and the lower can be as low as around 750 yuan/ton. The processing fees in Guangdong market fell by 150 yuan/ton month-on-month, and the market zero-order processing fees are still at a relatively high level, and the price difference between them and long-term orders is obvious. North China market, the processing fee quotation is 650 yuan/ton, the processing fee has been significantly reduced, and the demand in the northern market has also declined significantly. At the end of the production of
, the production of fine copper rod market rebounded this week, mainly because some companies that have been repaired recently resumed production, but due to the restrictions on orders in some areas and the impact of the epidemic, it has dragged down the overall recovery performance. Production of enterprises in East China has been increased, and some maintenance companies have resumed production one after another, and the overall production situation has been steadily improving. In the South China market, copper rod enterprises have poor production performance, and the regional high water still has a significant impact on the production and sales of enterprises. The performance of the North China market is slightly insufficient, and the regional epidemic and decline in demand have caused some copper rod manufacturers to not reach full production. In the central China area, some enterprises have been affected by the epidemic and their production performance is still poor.
This week, the processing fee of the Yangtze River Delta market was lowered, and the overall market transaction performance was poor. Most fine copper rod companies' transactions fell by about 20% month-on-month, and the demand side performed poorly. Judging from the market research, the production of large cable factories is still stable, and orders for small and medium-sized cable companies have weakened; in addition, due to the strengthening of copper prices during the week, downstream companies are weakening their enthusiasm for buying goods. Against the background of the current large price fluctuations in , the market is more likely to restock and buy when the market is low, so the overall transaction performance is relatively concentrated during the week.
transactions in the northern market were poor, and the trading performance declined significantly. The northern market entered winter and market demand declined significantly. In addition to the recurrence of the epidemic, it was difficult to increase demand. In the southern market, the transaction performance this week is average. Due to the large difference between the zero orders and long order prices in the market, most market companies focus on long order trading, so there are obvious situations in which downstream companies urge long orders during the week.
The processing fee price difference in mainstream markets in various places has expanded, mainly because the differences between the north and the south markets are obvious, but the northern market is troubled by winter and the epidemic, and it is difficult to mobilize the supply of goods. Overall, there are fewer cross-regional transactions in the market, and the main transactions are still mainly focused on the same province and city.
2. Recycled copper rod market: the company's production performance is stable and the raw material reserves are still sufficient
The price center of gravity of the recycled copper rod this week has moved up, and the price change during the week is relatively small; by this Friday, the market's recycled copper rod price was between 63,500-63,600 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton month-on-month. In terms of transactions in
, the market transaction performance this week was average. Although the current price difference between the refined scrap copper rod in the market is better than that of the consumption of recycled copper rods, this week, due to the slight shrinkage of recycled copper supply in some areas, coupled with the repeated epidemic situation and sufficient orders from manufacturers, the enthusiasm of recycled copper rod companies to adjust prices this week is average, and the overall transaction has declined slightly compared with the previous week. Traders have a good sentiment, and the price has certain advantages over the manufacturers. In addition, some manufacturers have a certain low-priced supply, so market acceptors are more active in absorbing and inquiring lower than low-priced supply during the week.
This week, the production performance of Jiangxi recycled copper rod enterprises was basically the same. At present, the production of enterprises is in a relatively stable state. At the same time, some enterprises have added sufficient recycled copper supplies in the first two weeks. This part of the orders can still meet the current production, so the raw material risks are low. At the same time, this week, the recycled copper rod companies are generally willing to receive raw materials, and most companies select appropriate amounts of supplies to supplement a small amount of goods, which also indirectly reflects that the current market has a low urgent demand for raw materials.
Henan and Hebei markets have generally traded this week, and the local area is currently significantly affected by the epidemic. Although the production of enterprises is still in normal progress, it is difficult to get raw materials to the factory, and it is difficult for freight drivers to find them, so the supply of raw materials for enterprises has been on the verge of a shortage crisis. The market situation in Hubei market is basically the same as last week. Due to the asymmetry of raw material procurement, there are obvious differences in the shipment sentiment of various manufacturers, and companies with sufficient raw material reserves have higher sentiment of shipment price adjustment. In the Hunan market, the production performance of enterprises is relatively stable, but the arrival of raw materials by some enterprises is somewhat delayed due to the impact of the epidemic. If the arrival of raw materials by the factory continues to be postponed, it is not ruled out that there is a possibility of suspension of production. The transaction performance in the South China market is average, with market transactions mainly based on low-priced goods, and mainstream quotations are relatively difficult. The market price difference between
has narrowed. In addition, some domestic areas have been affected by the epidemic recently. At the same time, the spot supply of recycled copper rods in China is relatively tight, and the market has less cross-regional mobilization.
3. Price spread of fine scrap copper rods: The price spread continues to expand, and the demand support for recycled copper rods continues
This week, the price difference of refined scrap copper rods has widened month-on-month, which is beneficial to the consumption of recycled copper rods; however, due to the current spot tight recycled copper rods, the manufacturer's delivery period is relatively long, and the raw material reserves are sufficient, so the willingness of recycled copper rods to adjust prices and shipments is relatively low, so the actual boost to consumption of recycled copper rods is relatively limited.
This week, the discount range between the recycled copper rod and futures copper has expanded. The inverted value has changed significantly recently and is in a larger discount range, which has certain support for some speculative trading in the market.
Forecast next week: As the peak season gradually passes, market demand performance begins to decline, especially the decline in the northern market is the most obvious. The current repair of the price difference between fine scrap copper rods has led to the continuous increase in the consumption demand in the recycled copper rod market, but the tight spot supply and the weakening of the manufacturer's willingness to adjust prices have become restrictions on further improvement in market transactions. Looking at the future market, the demand for recycled copper rods still has certain advantages due to the repair of the price difference between the refined scrap copper rods, but the problem of tight spot stock may become an important factor in the tilt of demand towards the refined copper rods; and over time, market demand will gradually enter a downward trend, and subsequent demand is expected to gradually weaken, and the delivery time may become an important watershed in the reflection of the demand for the refined scrap copper rods.
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Source | Mysteel, Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal Network
Edit | Li Xue, Sun Holland
Review | Yu Kai
Submission Email | [email protected]
