Author: snowball people show up
Source: snowball
child, a lot of things are important to help parents make choices, when they grow up, we began to try to make their own choice . What choice did you make that affected you the most? Which university do you choose after the college entrance examination? Is it a matter of choosing a career after graduation? Or decide whether to get married after dating? Throughout every choice, it is a torture of the heart, a mapping of self-cognition.
Many people may not be able to face up to what they love in their hearts for a long time. However, once the love breaks through the shackles, it will spring up like mushrooms in March, releasing the strongest vitality.
@逸修1 After being a physics teacher for four years, he chose to respect his heart to invest. Before that, he had shared a lot of investment analysis and views on Internet companies on Snowball, although he had previously He has never been involved in stock trading in a real sense, but investment has submerged into his way of thinking.
Yixiu said that he was lucky to know what he liked and what he was good at at the age of 26. The same is true for investment.
01
From teacher to investigator ，I just know myself more clearly
A few friends on the snowball Knowing what I did before, an earlier column also mentioned: I studied theoretical physics at university and worked as a physics teacher for about four years after graduation. Switching to investing in investment is accidental, and it is also somewhat inevitable, and Cang has been added wrong-Leo and Hongge (Liang Hong) and others have helped a lot (there are some friends who are relatively low-key and do not disclose their names).
In the two or three years after graduating in 2014, the WeChat public account has been in full swing. My understanding of the Internet and investment originated from public number articles and their recommended books: on the Internet, the development of online smartphones in 14 years At its peak, Mr. Lei’s concept of “the pig on the wind” (following the trend) was highly respected at that time, and it had a great influence on Fu Sheng and me. (Looking back, the flaw of this theory is that the trend is important, but the trend After all, it’s not for enterprises, and it’s equally important to build your own barriers in the process of taking advantage of the trend.) In terms of investment, Balao’s "Letter to Shareholders" can be regarded as enlightenment reading, and "Smart Investor" is also a careful study.
When listening to @傅盛's course in the Spring Festival of 17 years, I heard him mention that “Snowball is scolding him every day” (probably this means, because Cheetah’s stock price has fallen badly). This is the first time I know there is a snowball. , I clicked on Baidu and found that there are many articles to read in this place, and they are more professional than public articles, so I became an active user of Snowball.
At the beginning, I just read a lot. When I read it to a certain level, I try to write something by myself. Snowball is a community, there is a certain circle, and the level is limited. No one reads the articles I wrote at the beginning. Until the Spring Festival of 18 years, some of the content written in November 2017 was turned out because of a certain forward-looking, and I met @仓又加错-Leo @Ricky and others, and started to integrate into the Internet circle on Snowball.
At that time, a big guy was hiring, and @仓又加错-Leo introduced me to him. Although I missed it in the end, this matter was of great significance to me.
In the Spring Festival of 18 years, I connected my life experiences together, and suddenly understood what I like and what I am good at (thanks to Drucker and Jobs): it is research and analysis, as long as there are objective laws that can be analyzed, basically Can do it.
Physics itself is an analysis of the objective world. The experience of learning and teaching physics gave me a deeper understanding of analytical methods, and also accumulated a lot of analytical experience. The textbooks and teaching plans during my time as a physics teacher were my own When I was a teacher, I made a more detailed adjustment plan and made a simple mod for a more famous domestic stand-alone game. A perfect friend at that time invited me to change my career to do game numerical planning; also for the complete set of Jinshu I have written hundreds of thousands of word storytelling, and no one has surpassed the related storytelling field for the time being. After I came to Xueqiu, what I saw and thought and wrote was basically the business analysis of industry companies and some investment concepts.
After the epiphany, he took the Internet and investment as a long-term direction (the combination of the two is Internet investment), and thenStart to make a lot of preparations.
I once said that the most thankful person on the snowball must have a warehouse and add the wrong-Leo, because he is the key person who triggered my resuscitation, without his recommendation events and a series of events that followed , I may not understand what is said above one or two years later; and I am grateful to Jobs and Drucker because of their wisdom, so I remember that if a person wants to achieve success, the first thing to do is to understand yourself What do you like and be good at? It doesn't matter if you don't understand it for the time being, remember its importance and try to discover it.
Being able to understand at the age of 26 is undoubtedly one of the luckiest things in my life. I also hope that all golfers who have not yet understood will understand as soon as possible.
02
Some industry investment views
Because I am more interested in Internet companies, I share more views on Chinese concept stocks. When communicating with Xiu Ge, She asked: The Internet industry has gradually developed from the BAT trio to the current four major ATBM giants. Asked about the future development trend of the Internet industry, it is not convenient for individual stocks to talk about the general direction.
I started to have feelings last year, and this year is particularly obvious: this year will be the final battle time for the Chinese mobile Internet. The keywords are smart recommendation, video, sinking, and offline. The winner will get the next three to five years. Ferry tickets until the next hardware cycle emerges; as far as investors are concerned, who wins the bet basically determines the income in the next three to five years; there are more variables in the epidemic this year, but the main line is still not the epidemic in the medium and long term; the specific pattern, I The preference for B as the third pole has been completely formed, and the rest needs to be looked at; specific industries, traditional e-commerce, games and entertainment content, emerging medical, education, and office all have big opportunities. The market is still blue ocean.
In fact, look at the global market value rankings of listed companies. Saudi Aramco does not count. The top eight are Internet platform companies, A sixth and T eighth (varies from time to time). In recent days, the market value of both The stock market has risen above 600 billion U.S. dollars, and I want to be tied with AT. Not to mention the five to six hundred billion U.S. dollars, at least three to four hundred billion U.S. dollars. Except for B, we will exclude the unlisted Huawei and Ant. For the time being, others It’s hard to say that it is stable. M has a chance. B’s global expansion has recently encountered some force majeure.
AT is now facing the challenge of traffic migration. The challenge they face is an opportunity for latecomers. You can pay more attention to latecomers.
I spent two or three years studying industry company business analysis and some investment concepts before entering the bank. I did not open a personal securities account. After I came to Khiva, I did not allow it, so I have not even an account yet.
It’s still a bit magical. I encountered a historical stock market crash as soon as I came up. I was laughed by my colleagues and said that I went to World War II without touching the gun.
If it is recommended to the company or responsible for tracking, look at the Internet , 17 and this year are both years of great opportunities. After the March stock market crash this year, the performance will not be bad. It is more specific and inconvenient to expand in detail. (If it is our product holder, he should see it when he summarizes at the end of the year. ). The outside world has many misunderstandings about us, so it is not recommended to guess.
03About the investment ability circle
I have two opinions:
1. The ability circle is objectively existing
My industry view is the industry Regardless of good or bad, each industry has its core attributes. Models and companies that can make use of their advantages, complement or avoid their shortcomings are good models and good companies
The core reason for the existence of competence circles is that it is difficult to understand the differences The core attributes of the industry and its appropriate business model: According to different personal experiences, methods and endowments, it is good for most people to understand a certain industry. Cross-industry applications often cause problems
2. The ability circle is not The unchanging
On the one hand, experience can grow, methods can be trained, and endowments can be explored; on the other hand, there are differences and synergy between different industries. The core of understanding an industry is about understanding and synergizing with the industry. Helpful
Take the Internet as an example. E-commerce and content are two different industries. E-commerce can be divided into realThe content of e-commerce and service e-commerce can be divided into UGC and PGC. They all have Internet attributes, but there are some differences between them. It is not so easy to cross the past.
04
The fate on the snowball
Someone asked me about the fate of Shiva Assets. Why did you choose to join? This question, this question should be asked Brother Hong.... The first batch of people in our company were basically recruited by himself. After the fund scale reaches a certain level, there will naturally be a need for cross-industry allocation. The Internet is a large enough industry that will always have opportunities.
Everyone is on the platform of Xueqiu, and they know each other to a certain extent. I chatted with me privately in September last year. The meeting was still in Foshan, and then I came to meet in Shanghai. There were two general directions at the time, private equity and Internet companies, Internet companies still need to interview again, and I like a relatively simple way of working (not referring to the job content), Internet companies may not have a suitable position, my friend also suggested that I don’t need to go to major Internet companies unless there are special circumstances. My previous strength was analysis. Market sentiment, macro trading, etc. were all weaknesses. I came to Khiva to make up for it. I agreed to come after the National Day.
Our company is very tolerant and has all styles. I have learned a lot in more than half a year, which is very helpful to make up for my weakness.
Before coming to Shiva, I quit my previous job and did more than a year of research work: take a computer, find a milk tea or coffee shop, go back in the morning at night, read articles, books, reports and listen to the phone Meetings, etc., organize materials and write things, and occasionally share and exchange ideas on Snowball. After I came here, because there were more things to do, learning, and contacts, the progress of pure industry research has slowed down a bit. Recently, I am trying to solve this problem.
The financial report month will be very busy (Internet companies are generally 3, 5, 8, 11), and most of the rest of the time will have free time, so I think the researcher work should be self-driven. In addition to completing the company’s daily work, Have their own goals: those deficiencies need to be filled, those industries and companies need to expand, etc.
There are two feelings that are very different now and before: one is from the research on how to make a reasonable transition to the transaction; the other is that there are many more kinds of meetings (not referring to internal company meetings).
If it is the first stage before coming to Shiva and the second stage after coming, these two stages will have a great impact on my future investment career. The industry and company analysis of my previous expertise + come to Shiva to make up The overall framework of investment philosophy in three aspects: market and sentiment, macro and cycle, risk control and trading is finalized.
05
Some psychological words for new investors
Actually, I am also a newcomer...First of all, judge whether you are suitable for investment or not, give it to you if you are not suitable Suitable people do it, and look down: Secondly, judge which type you are. Simple can be divided into two types, basic type and transaction type, both can be done, but you must figure out which type you are. Finally, Choose an industry and company that you can understand.
How to judge is a more difficult problem: the first problem can be medium and long-term performance, the second problem needs to do correct attribution analysis, and the third problem varies from person to person.
Attribution analysis uses ideal models and controlled variable methods. Recall how you learned physics at that time.
