I have been paying attention to AIER Ophthalmology during this period. Due to the sharp fall in the stock market during this period, many pharmaceutical and medical stocks have experienced different declines. I remember that Changchun High-tech fell from 522 yuan to 164 yuan in M

has been paying attention to AIER Ophthalmology during this period. Due to the sharp decline in the stock market during this period, many pharmaceutical and medical stocks have experienced different declines. I remember that Changchun High-tech fell from 522 yuan to 164 yuan in May last year. That’s enough, but what about Aier Eye Clinic?

seems to be no better. I am thinking, can I still vote? Whether

can be invested depends on whether there are any problems within the company and the general environment, especially the internal factors of the company. Next, I will start from [industry scale, competition landscape, moat, business analysis, financial analysis, valuation, Risks and advantages] Let’s analyze these aspects.

. Business analysis

.1 Business information

Aier Eye Hospital Group Co., Ltd. was established on January 24, 2003. It is an ophthalmic medical group with leading hospital scale and medical capabilities in China and the world. The company is mainly engaged in the diagnosis and treatment of various eye diseases, surgical services and medical optometry and other businesses. With its unique "graded chain" development model and its supporting operation and management system, the medical network has spread across mainland China, Hong Kong, China, Europe, the United States, and Southeast Asia have established the strategic pattern of global development.

Currently, the company has more than 600 eye hospitals and centers, including more than 500 in mainland China, 7 in Hong Kong, 1 in the United States, more than 80 in Europe, and 12 in Southeast Asia. In addition, the company continues to improve the construction of the medical teaching and research platform and further promotes the coordinated development of industry, academia and research: after establishing the Aier Eye Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University, the Aier Eye Clinical College of Wuhan University, and the Aier Eye Research Institute of Wuhan University, it also cooperated with Jinan University signed a strategic cooperation agreement to jointly build the Guangzhou Aier Eye Hospital affiliated to Jinan University, the Shenzhen Aier Eye Hospital affiliated to Jinan University, and the Dongguan Aier Eye Hospital affiliated to Jinan University, realizing complementary resources in medicine, teaching, and research. The teaching and research system is becoming more and more perfect, and the company's brand influence is also constantly increasing.

.2 Industry scale and development stage

.2.1 Industry scale

In recent years, the demand for ophthalmic medical services in my country has continued to grow. The main reasons are:

(1) With the aging of my country's population structure, the number of patients with age-related eye diseases continues to increase;

(2) The eye health status of teenagers is becoming increasingly severe, especially the incidence of myopia is much higher than the world average;

(3) The epidemic has changed people’s lifestyles. Online classes, online office work, online entertainment, and online social interaction The trend intensifies the intensity of eye use, has a greater impact on visual health, and brings more demand for ophthalmic medical services.

According to National Bureau of Statistics statistics, as of the end of 2019, the country's population aged 60 and above was 254 million, accounting for 18.1% of the total population; it is expected that the population aged 60 and above in my country will reach more than 400 million in 2050. It can be predicted that age-related eye diseases such as cataracts and diabetic retinopathy caused by the aging population will continue to grow.

According to the results of the 2018 National Myopia Survey on Children and Adolescents released by National Health Commission , in 2018, the overall myopia rate among children and adolescents nationwide reached 53.6%. Among them, 36.0% are primary school students, 71.6% are junior high school students, and 81.0% are high school students. The total number of myopia patients in my country is expected to reach 700 million in 2020. Under the influence of the epidemic, according to the latest survey of nine provinces by the Ministry of Education in 2020, compared with the end of 2019, the myopia rate among students increased by 11.7% in the first half of 2020, of which the myopia rate among primary school students increased by 15.2% and that among junior high school students increased by 8.2%. %, and high school students increased by 3.8%. The situation of myopia in people with high incidence, younger age and advanced myopia is severe.

Next, let’s take a look at the size of the aging population. We know that China’s population is increasing every year, and the aging population is also increasing simultaneously, as shown below:

On May 11, 2021, the seventh national census The results were announced, and the country's population totaled 1.411 billion, which has continued to maintain a low-speed growth trend for the past 10 years; China's population is expected to be 1.441 billion in 2030.

From the perspective of China's population structure, China's population is aging. In 2010, China's population aged 0-14 accounted for 16.6%. In 2020, China's population aged 0-14 accounted for 17.95%, an increase of 1.35 percentage points from 2010. In 2010, China's population over 60 years old accounted for 13.26%, and in 2020, the population over 60 years old accounted for 18.70%, an increase of 5.44 percentage points from 2010.

In China’s 2021 national census report, the population under 60 years old accounted for 81.30%, a decrease of 5.44 percentage points from 2010; the population over 60 years old accounted for 18.70%, an increase of 5.44 percentage points from 2010; it is expected that in 2030, China’s population under 60 years old will The population accounted for 75.2%, a decrease of 11.54 percentage points from 2010; the population over 60 years old accounted for 24.8%, an increase of 11.54 percentage points from 2010. The proportion of people over 60 years old is gradually approaching 25% of the total population.

Judging from the aging population trend, the number of elderly people over 60 years old is increasing year by year. At the same time, the probability of eye diseases among the elderly will also increase year by year.

Driven by multiple factors such as the increasing incidence of eye diseases year by year, the increasing awareness of eye health, and the improvement of residents' paying ability, my country's ophthalmic medical service market has continued to develop. In 2019, there were 854 specialized eye hospitals in my country, and it is expected that the number of specialized eye hospitals in my country will exceed 1,000 in 2021.

With the increase in the incidence of dry eye disease and the rapid improvement of people's living standards, more ocular surface diseases have been effectively diagnosed and treated. The overall market size of ocular surface diseases in China has grown rapidly from 5.65 billion yuan in 2015 to 9.44 billion yuan in 2019. China's ocular surface disease diagnosis and treatment market will maintain more than double-digit growth. According to Huaxia Ophthalmology's prospectus, China's ocular surface disease market is expected to reach 21.9 billion yuan in 2025.

.2.2 Development stage

Let’s take a look at the product operating income structure of Aier Ophthalmology, such as the 2020 annual report:

From the 2020 annual report, refraction project, optometry service project, cataract project, these three items It accounts for the largest proportion, accounting for 73.57%, and is the core business of ophthalmology.

According to Aier Ophthalmology's 2020 annual report, its core business in ophthalmology looks at the development stages:

, refractive myopia stage

China's refractive surgery market is developing rapidly, and the market size is expected to exceed 70 billion in 2025. China's refractive surgery market size climbed from approximately 5.90 billion yuan in 2015 to 18.07 billion yuan in 2019. With the further popularity of refractive surgery in China, the market size is expected to maintain rapid growth. According to Huaxia Ophthalmology's prospectus, China's refractive surgery market is expected to grow to approximately 72.5 billion yuan in 2025.

Moreover, the market share of private hospitals is increasing year by year, and is expected to reach 40.8 billion yuan by 2025, which is 31.7 billion yuan larger than that of public hospitals.

The myopia rate is very high in our country and even around the world, and there are many people who have a strong desire to take off their glasses. In 2020, the number of myopia people in China was 101 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%.

In 2020, the number of myopic people in China aged 8-12 years was 80.5 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%; the number of myopic people aged 13-15 years was 47.95 million, a year-on-year decrease of 0.02%; the number of myopic people aged 16-18 years was 48.39 million, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2% .

In 2020, the myopia rate of China's population aged 8-12 years old was 36.3%; the myopia rate of the population aged 13-15 years old was 69.8%; and the myopia rate of the population aged 16-18 years old was 79.1%.

. Cataract stage

Aging has prompted the number of cataract patients in China to continue to rise. In 2025, the market size of cataract surgery is expected to exceed 30 billion. China has the largest number of cataract patients and the largest number of blind people treated by cataract in the world. In 2019, the number of cataract patients in China was approximately 126 million. With the increase in China's elderly population and a slight increase in the incidence rate, the number of cataract patients in China is expected to continue to grow. According to the prospectus of Huaxia Ophthalmology, the number of cataract patients in China is expected to exceed 150 million in 2025.The rising number of patients has promoted the rapid growth of China's cataract surgery market, which has rapidly increased from approximately RMB 11.14 billion in 2015 to approximately RMB 19.45 billion in 2019. According to Huaxia Ophthalmology's prospectus, the overall market size is expected to reach RMB 33.85 billion in 2025. Yuan.

Summary: Analyzing the scale of refraction, myopia and cataract, the demand of China's population in this area is growing year by year, especially the scale of China's teenagers and elderly people is growing year by year, and they are in a growth stage.

.3 Industry competition pattern

. Private hospitals are developing rapidly

In 1980, the State Council approved the former Ministry of Health's "Report on Allowing Individuals to Open Medical Practices", marking the first step for China's private hospitals to break the ranks of public hospitals. Monopolize the medical and health field in China. With the subsequent promulgation and promulgation of policies such as the "Opinions on Further Encouraging and Guiding Social Capital to Establish Medical Institutions" and the "Notice on Issues Concerning the Implementation of Market-Adjusted Prices for Medical Services in Non-Public Medical Institutions", the state has given private capital more opportunities to enter the medical care industry. With sufficient support and encouragement from the health system, private hospitals in our country have ushered in a stage of vigorous development.

In 2019, the number of private hospitals in my country reached 22,424, a year-on-year increase of 6.90%, and the number of public hospitals was 11,930, a year-on-year decrease of 0.85%, showing a slow downward trend. We believe that the main reason for the decrease in public hospitals is the increasing concentration of public hospitals as a result of the accelerated restructuring of state-owned hospitals, the increase in mergers and acquisitions, and the advancement of DRGs; although private hospitals and public hospitals still have differences in hardware equipment, human resources, and many other aspects. There is a considerable gap, but affected by the dividends of the medical reform policy, private hospitals as a whole will still maintain a relatively rapid development momentum.

Next, take a look at "Domestic Public Transport vs. Private Eye Medical Services Market Size (2015-2025E)", as shown below:

It can be expected that by 2025, the private eye medical service market size will reach 110.3 billion.

At present, the ophthalmology companies listed on the market include: Aier Ophthalmology, Chaoju Ophthalmology, Guangzheng Ophthalmology, Opconvision, Eurovision , and Xima Ophthalmology. In 2020, the operating income of Aier Ophthalmology, Chaoju Ophthalmology, Guangzheng Ophthalmology, Opconvision, Eurovision, and Xima Ophthalmology are respectively: 11.91 billion yuan, 630 million yuan, 680 million yuan, 63 million yuan, and 470 million Hong Kong dollars ( About 384 million yuan) and 700 million Hong Kong dollars (about 571 million yuan), as shown in the picture below:

According to the picture, the private ophthalmology medical service market size will reach 44.3 billion in 2020. Aier Eyes, Chaoju Eyes, Guangzheng Eyes, Opcon Vision, De The proportions of Shijia and Xima Ophthalmology are: 26.88%, 1.42%, 1.53%, 0.14%, 0.87% and 1.3% respectively.

It can be seen from the data that Aier Ophthalmology has an absolute advantage among listed companies and is the absolute leader.

Let’s take a look at the ophthalmology market share of my country’s public and private institutions from 2012 to 2018:

Aier Ophthalmology, Huaxia, Purui and New Vision, the shares are: 31%, 9%, 5% and 4%, respectively. The total is 49%, and 40% ≤ CR470%, which means it is in the oligopoly of and .

. Aier Eye Hospital has built the absolute advantage of ophthalmic medical service institutions with network layout and business volume.

Private eye hospital institutions are mainly divided into the following categories: Aier Eye Hospital mainly in the national and European and American regions; represented by the national region, Huaxia Eye Hospital and Purui Eye Hospital; those that are mainly regional include Shanghai New Vision, Airui Sunshine, Guangcai Tomorrow, Chaoju Eye, Jangho Group and He's Eye Hospital; those that are mainly local include Aige Eye and Rui Shi Eye.

Among them, the eye hospital chain with nationwide, European and American regional layout is the largest and has the widest coverage. By the end of 2020, Aier Ophthalmology has more than 300 hospitals in mainland China, and more than 80 hospitals in Europe, the United States and Hong Kong. The second-place Huaxia Ophthalmology has 51 hospitals, which is far smaller than Aier Ophthalmology. The operating income of Aier Ophthalmology at the end of 2020 reached 11.912 billion, nearly five times more than the operating income of second-place Huaxia Ophthalmology.

Judging from the above data, Aier Ophthalmology is definitely a leading company.

See the article: Aier Ophthalmology has also fallen too hard, is there still a chance?