As the saying goes "The epidemic will only last three years." So, will the new crown end this year?
Throughout the history of development, infectious diseases have appeared many times, such as the plague in the Middle Ages, to smallpox in modern history. These infectious diseases have all caused great threats to human survival, but The result every time is that we will win.
Since 2019, our lives have undergone tremendous changes. Wearing masks when going out has become an indispensable part of life. The reason for this is ultimately due to the impact of the new crown.
SARS and COVID-19 both belong to coronavirus . Why was SARS quickly brought under control, while COVID-19 has not been brought under control for 3 years now? Even the epidemic in some countries is still very serious?
"The epidemic will last only three years." Will the new crown epidemic follow this trend?
However, judging from historical experience, basically large-scale epidemics will not last more than three years.
For example, the great plague that broke out in Athens BC lasted for 3 years, killing more than half of the country's population; an infectious disease broke out in London in 1665, which lasted about 2 years; the Spanish Flu was also one of the most widely spread in history. The epidemic lasted only for more than two years and gradually stabilized.
In these past events, most infectious diseases can gradually disappear within three years, which seems to have some truth.
But understanding the specific situation, except for smallpox, it seems that we have never completely eliminated infectious diseases. SARS in 2003, swine flu in 2008, were not eliminated, but suddenly disappeared.
From a scientific point of view, the so-called "epidemic will only last three years" is actually based on past experience. If this method is used to judge whether the epidemic will disappear within three years, there is no certain scientific basis.
Let’s take a scientific look at when the COVID-19 epidemic will end.
According to the prediction results of Academician Huang Jianping of Lanzhou University in China, based on the current development trend of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, Omi Kerong the new crown pneumonia epidemic will end around November 2023. Perhaps by then, people can take off their clothes Mask and breathe freely in the sun.
reminds everyone that this prediction is based on the current trend of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic. When the virus strain and transmission power do not change abnormally, this data should be relatively accurate. However, if the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic continues to spread, stronger symptoms will appear in the future. of infectious strains, this data will no longer apply.
After all, with the continuous development of society, the mobility between people and goods has become stronger. The gap between people who had to walk on legs and the circulation of carriages and horses in the past is widening, and a wider range of viruses may be spread in a short period of time. Repeated virus infection may also increase the risk of virus mutating into , threatening health.
How was SARS effectively controlled?
- The source of infection is under control
The first SARS case appeared in Foshan, Guangdong, and then quickly spread throughout Guangdong. The rapid release of control measures can prevent the spread of the virus. The government's cautious attitude towards all suspected sources of infection is The key to SARS being gradually brought under control.
——The transmission route was cut off
When the SARS epidemic began to break out across the country, schools began to close.
All parts of the country are doing their best to control the migrant population. All migrant workers must first have their body temperature taken. If there are any abnormalities, they should be isolated immediately and can only take action after being diagnosed. It is precisely because the transmission route is cut off that the epidemic gradually subsides. Be controlled.
- The virus will subside on its own as the weather gets hotter
The SARS virus needs a certain temperature to survive, and the cause of the climate also plays a certain role.
As the weather gets warmer, the spread of the SARS virus is also suppressed. When the temperature is higher than 26°C and exposed to strong sunlight, most SARS viruses can be killed.
Leader of the expert group of the National Health Commission: Four conditions must be met for the end of the epidemic
If you really want the epidemic to end as soon as possible, you may need to adopt more scientific methods to deal with it. Liang Wannian, leader of the National Health Commission's epidemic emergency response expert group, also mentioned at the press conference that at least four conditions need to be met for the epidemic to be completely over.
First, the virus mutates and becomes weaker and weaker, its pathogenicity and transmissibility become weaker and weaker, and the harm to human health and life threats becomes smaller and smaller, which is the best;
Second, the vaccine is more effective, Not only can it prevent severe illness and death, but it can also prevent infection, and its ability to prevent severe illness and mortality is higher;
Third, there are specific drugs. In addition to the existing effective drugs, there may be more effective drugs, and even more effective drugs. It is a specific drug that can block the disease at an early stage;
Fourthly, internationally, the epidemic situation in other countries is easing, and the pressure of China's foreign defense imports has become less. "Look at the virus itself, its harmfulness, and the weapons and means we have. Only when these are combined can we discuss when we can adjust our strategies and when we can return to normal life."
