text | Zhou Xian
The major political and economic event in 2023 should be the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine war. It should be affirmed with a high probability. There is no sign of a ceasefire for the time being.
Generally speaking, the longer the war lasts, the more investment will continue to escalate. Historically, many wars started as local wars, thought to end quickly, and ended in all-out wars, such as the "Battle of Changping" in the Warring States Period, World War I, the Korean War, etc.
Today, Ukraine has no chips to push. If the war wants to escalate, one side is Russia, and the other is NATO led by the United States. There is still a lot of chips, and things In fact, in the past few months, the war has been gradually escalating. Of course, Russia has continued to increase its mobilization. NATO was originally supporting Ukraine with manpower and material resources, but now it has come to the surface, and it is clear that the money and arms are provided.
If we talk about the possibility of a ceasefire, Ukraine has lost 25% of its territory. Unless Kiev also falls and the regime changes, it will be impossible to stop.
Many people in the West have fantasized that the war will end as long as Putin steps down. However, in Russia, Putin is actually a moderate. If he steps down due to a defeat in the war or is assassinated, the most likely scenario is that radicals will come to power, and these people advocate the restoration of all the territories of the former Soviet Union.
In fact, the West is not afraid of fighting a traditional war with Russia. If it were not afraid of its 6,000 nuclear bombs , and seeing Russia's failure in this war, it would have joined forces long ago, and all NATO troops would be dispatched to dismantle the old Maozi, and it would be over. But it is precisely because of these thousands of nuclear bombs that NATO is afraid of Russia's imminent defeat, so it upgrades to use nuclear weapons ... In the initial stage, only small nuclear weapons will be used. If not upgraded, the Tsarist nuclear bomb will not be ruled out.
To sum up, neither Russia nor Ukraine will and are unable to end the war. Even Europe does not have the power. First, they are just vassals of the United States. Second, even if several European countries really withdraw, and the United States alone supports the fight, no one can stop it. It is just that without Europe's money, the cost to the United States will be much higher. However, the war in Afghanistan cost 100 billion U.S. dollars a year, and the amount of funding for Ukraine was not much different. The United States could definitely afford it. The most important thing is that it only contributed money, without sending troops, and Ukrainians sacrificed their lives.
When it comes to the greatest strategic interest of the United States, it is to prolong the war and bring down Russia. Therefore, Ukraine can neither win nor lose. Therefore, this war will definitely be a show in the foreseeable future and will not stop.
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