The performance of the Russian army on the Ukrainian battlefield was far below the world's expectations, but it is undeniable that it was not Ukraine that was at war with the Russian army, but Ukraine, which was fighting with the West's full blood transfusion.
The Russian army insists on attacking Ukraine's infrastructure, hoping to destroy Ukraine's war potential. However, as long as Ukraine's blood is not drained and as long as Western aid flows in, the Ukrainian army's resistance will continue.
At the same time, Western aid to Ukraine will continue to escalate. Russia has repeatedly issued warnings to the United States. However, the United States has repeatedly broken "taboos", from providing "Haimas " to Ukraine to providing "Patriot" air defense systems to Ukraine. This seems to be a hint to Russia that the United States is likely to supply tanks, long-range missiles and fighter jets to Ukraine in the future.
The United States has temporarily rejected Kiev 's request for tanks. It is probably just because the United States feels that the time has not come yet, rather than because the United States regards it as a "red line" and is worried about causing direct confrontation between the United States and Russia.
When will "the time has come"? Russia is unpredictable. Unless the U.S. military launches a large-scale attack on the Russian mainland, it is unlikely that the United States and Russia will officially go to war. Therefore, Russia cannot guess the "sense of proportion" of the United States. However, Russia cannot remain passive in front of the United States.
If Russia does not want its results to continue to shrink and faces pressure from the West for aid, it is time for Russia to take the initiative.
According to a report by the German Press Agency on the 28th, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov announced that the Russian army is formulating a new plan to cut off Ukraine’s external supply lines for weapons and ammunition assistance .
Russia finally came to its senses and began to face up to the principles of war. Any normal military commander should know the importance of cutting off the enemy's supplies, rather than blindly consume them. In other words, fighting means fighting for supplies. At the operational level, the most efficient means of annihilating the enemy is encirclement and annihilation warfare. At the strategic level, for the Russian army, if it can implement a land blockade of Ukraine, it will be a matter of time for the Russian army to win the war. .
Under the premise that Ukraine relies on the West, Russia may not be able to defeat Ukraine through consumption. Therefore, the next big move of the Russian army should be to unite Belarus and send troops to Usi to control Warren State and Lviv . Judging from the trends since the beginning of the war between Russia and Belarus, Russia should have been preparing for Russia and Belarus to send troops to Usi.
Belarus has long been in a state of war readiness. Some time ago, Russian President Putin personally visited Minsk . Recently, a video released by the Russian Ministry of Defense showed that in Belarus, the Russian army even put the latest armored vehicle VPK-Ural into joint training . Russia is so carefully prepared, and it will never be just to scare Ukraine and NATO .
So, does Russia violate the principle of military confidentiality by playing a "clear card" in such a high-profile manner? For Russia, secrecy is no longer necessary. Russia wants to cut off the West's supply of weapons to Ukraine. Its military goals and march route are simply obvious. The Ukrainian army also knows this. It depends on whether Kiev dares to deploy heavy troops to defend Ukraine.
Of course, Russia may also be deliberately confusing the Uzbek army, and Russia may also be playing tricks to attack the west. On the surface, the Russian army's military target is Uzbekistan, but in fact, Russia's target is still Kiev..
Ukrainian Army Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny believes that the Russian army is likely to attack Kiev again in early 2023. The Russian army’s second attack on Kiev also needs to go through Belarus. Moreover, the possibility of the Russian army attacking Kiev is extremely high. Recently, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterated his demand for "demilitarization and denazification" of Ukraine under Kiev's control, and claimed that if the proposal is not accepted amicably, the Russian military will handle the issue .
How can Russia achieve the goals of "demilitarization and denazification"? In the final analysis, the Kiev regime still needs to be overthrown, so the Russian army's direct attack on Kiev is an effective method. Putin also claimed that he wanted to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine as soon as possible, and that "the sooner, the better." Therefore, capturing Kiev may end the conflict faster than capturing Ukraine.
In this way, Kiev will face a difficult decision, whether to transfer troops from Udong and Wunan to defend Kiev or Usi. Once the Ukrainian army draws troops from Wudong and Wunan, the Russian army is likely to take advantage of the situation and attack. Or, Kyiv should maintain its current status and take a gamble on whether the Russian army will make big moves.
