Russia and Ukraine have not yet ended, and the Korean Peninsula is covered with dark clouds again. According to Global Network , citing Korean media reports, in response to the large-scale military exercises of the US-South Korea coalition forces, North Korea fired an intercontinental ballistic missile to the eastern waters.
In response, the United States took the lead in convening an emergency meeting between South Korea, Japan, Australia, Canada and New Zealand , and the six countries jointly stated that they would continue to put pressure on North Korea. As the layers of increase in all parties are increasing, the situation on the Korean Peninsula is becoming increasingly tense.
U.S. President Biden
1. The escalation of the situation on the peninsula is rooted in the United States, Japan and South Korea
This escalation of the situation on the peninsula is directly related to the three major wrong actions of the United States, Japan and South Korea on the peninsula issue.
The first wrong move, the high-intensity military pressure from the United States, Japan and South Korea, directly triggered North Korea's concerns about national defense security, and thus led to a military confrontation between the two sides.
In recent times, the United States, Japan and South Korea, especially the United States and South Korea, have held many large-scale targeted military exercises in the peninsula area. Strategic weapons such as the USS Reagan aircraft carrier battle group and the F-35 stealth fighter have appeared on the Korean Peninsula again after many years. The emergence of these "strategic killers" such as
has objectively posed a direct threat to North Korea's national defense security, and it is inevitable that the situation on the peninsula will escalate.
The United States and Japan and South Korea exercised
The second wrong move is that the Western camp led by the United States has arbitrarily imposed unilateral sanctions on North Korea. In May this year, the United States intended to impose additional sanctions on North Korea through Security Council , threatening to restrict North Korea's daily necessities imported. Such sanctions are not only unethical, but may also cause negative consequences.
So China and Russia decisively voted against the Security Council. The furious United States once again bypassed the Security Council and directly imposed unilateral sanctions on North Korea.
The US approach has undoubtedly added obstacles to the political settlement process of the peninsula issue and will inevitably promote the escalation of the situation on the peninsula.
The third wrong move, both the United States, Japan and South Korea have adopted extremely radical and negative policies toward North Korea. The United States has previously adopted a policy of exerting contact pressure on North Korea, that is, to put pressure on North Korea by strengthening military cooperation with South Korea, but it does not exclude contact with North Korea.
US-Japan-South Korea summit talks
At the beginning, the then-US President Trump focused on contact, so the United States and North Korea were able to achieve dialogue, but now Biden's policy toward North Korea is obviously more focused on pressure.
Biden did this mainly to strengthen control over the Korean and Japanese semiconductor industries, and even wanted to force these semiconductor industries to the United States.
The escalation of the situation on the peninsula can not only promote the relocation of Japanese and Korean companies, but also make Japan and South Korea closer to the United States in terms of security and make more political compromises to the United States. In this way, the United States can minimize political obstacles to harvesting Japan and South Korea as much as possible.
South Korea, South Korean President Yoon Seo-yeol was originally a prosecutor, lacking experience in governing, and foreign policy is easier to mark the line with ideology . One of the biggest contradictions between North and South Korea is that ideology is completely different, which is also one of the main reasons that hinder the easing of relations between the two countries.
Moon Jae-in and Yoon Seok-hyuk
So compared with former South Korean President Moon Jae-in, Yoon Seok-hyuk's policy toward North Korea is more radical, advocating strengthening alliance with the United States, which also exacerbates North Korea's insecurity.
In addition to lacking governance experience, Yoon Seok-yeol’s radical policy toward North Korea is actually related to his current governance situation. Since taking office, Yoon Seo-yeol's approval rating has been falling, and the main reason for this situation is South Korea's current economic difficulties and other problems.
In order to save his support rate, Yoon Seo-yeol needs to transfer these internal contradictions to the outside world. The situation on the peninsula is escalating within a controllable range, which has become Yoon Seo-yeol's best choice at the moment.
But doing so is undoubtedly extremely dangerous, because once the United States participates, South Korea will lose its initiative, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is a classic example.Yoon Seok-yeol should be clear that if he does not resolve internal conflicts and only wants to divert his attention, it will only lead to more problems.
South Korean people protested Yoon Seo-hyeon attending the NATO summit
As a stakeholder in the peninsula issue, Japan's policy toward North Korea is as radical as the United States and South Korea.
Japan is actually happy to see the situation on the peninsula escalate, because in this way, Japan can not only take the opportunity to obtain more military support from the United States, but also use the threat of North Korea's missile as a guise to greatly raise defense standards and promote the "normalization" of the country.
Overall, it is precisely because of the radical North Korean policies of the United States, Japan and South Korea, as well as a series of recent military and political pressures that the situation on the peninsula has rapidly escalated.
2. North Korea issued a clear warning, and China and Russia successively made statements
In the face of the military threats from the United States, Japan and South Korea, North Korea had already made clear its attitude as early as the end of October. A spokesperson for the North Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs once severely warned the United States, South Korea and other foreign forces that if continues to launch serious military provocations against North Korea, North Korea will take more powerful measures to respond.
Although North Korea's overall military level cannot cope with the United States, Japan and South Korea at the same time, due to its close geographical location, although Japan and South Korea have installed many air defense systems provided by the United States, South Korea and Japan are helpless in the face of North Korea's saturation strike.
North Korea launches missile
More importantly, as a close neighbor of the peninsula, China is committed to maintaining the overall stability of the regional situation. China has made clear statements many times before that China has been paying attention to the development of the situation on the peninsula and actively maintaining peace and stability in the peninsula area.
China advocates that all parties conduct dialogue and consultation through political channels to balance the reasonable concerns of all parties, thereby promoting a peaceful resolution of the peninsula issue.
However, given that the United States is gradually taking the situation on the peninsula as its wrong approach in the Indo-Pacific game, China has also decisively made its attitude.
On the UN Security Council held not long ago, China's Permanent Representative to the United Nations Ambassador Zhang Jun said that if the war hits the peninsula, China will take resolute measures to fulfill its responsibility to maintain stability in the regional situation.
In addition to China, the Russian representative has also made a clear statement at the Security Council to oppose any military action that threatens the security of the peninsula. It can be seen that on the peninsula issue, China and Russia maintain close strategic linkage and both advocate a peaceful settlement of disputes. It is precisely because of China and Russia that the United States dare not act rashly.
China's Permanent Representative to the United Nations Ambassador Zhang Jun
3. How to solve the peninsula problem, these three points are particularly important
Although the situation on the peninsula is unlikely to detonate in the short term, due to the lack of sufficient military communication between the United States, Japan and South Korea and North Korea, the confrontation between the two sides is likely to cause misjudgment, so it is urgent for all parties to seek a peaceful solution as soon as possible.
Otherwise, once the war on the peninsula rekindles, it will be a disaster for the whole world. If the peninsula issue is to be peacefully resolved through dialogue and consultation, these three points are crucial:
First point, during the dialogue, we must pay full attention to the other party’s reasonable concerns, especially the North Korean side. Only when each of their concerns are taken seriously can the dialogue continue to advance, otherwise it will become a "one-man show".
As early as the 2018 meeting between the Supreme Leaders of North Korea and South Korea, North Korea had clearly put forward two of its core concerns. One is that the United States and South Korea promote the end of the Korean War in , and the other is that the United States promises not to use force against North Korea.
Although the Korean War was more than 70 years ago, in a legal sense, the two sides only ceased fire and signed a ceasefire agreement, and the war did not end completely in the true sense.
US military base in South Korea
During his tenure, Moon Jae-in tried his best to persuade the United States to announce the end of the war to completely end the hostilities between North and South Korea. But the United States happens to be the biggest obstacle to this matter, because once the war is agreed to be announced, the United States will lose the legal reason to station troops in South Korea, and it will be difficult for it to intervene in the situation in , Northeast Asia, , .
So the United States' statement on this matter has always been relatively negative. From this, it can be seen that both North and South Korea actually have the intention to end the hostilities, but the United States is the biggest obstacle that the peninsula issue has been unable to be resolved.
However, during the Trump era, the United States had shaken the peninsula issue, so it was not impossible for the Korean War to be completely over. If the United States and South Korea can fully respect and respond to these two core concerns of the North, it will greatly promote the resolution of the problem.
Second point, all parties must show sincerity in the conversation. The trust relationship between the United States and South Korea is very fragile, so if you want to promote peaceful negotiations, all parties should show substantial sincerity.
US-South Korea military exercises
For example, the United States cannot ask North Korea to stop missile tests, and on the other hand, it increases military pressure on North Korea. What the United States, South Korea and North Korea need is to give in and create space for negotiations, rather than such confrontational actions.
Third point, if the peninsula wants to achieve long-term peace, it needs a reliable and lasting multilateral security framework. The relationship between the United States and South Korea is fragile, and there is a gap in overall strength. If the multilateral agreement is unstable, it will be difficult to play a substantial role in peace on the peninsula. Therefore, a practical and effective multilateral security framework should be built.
On the one hand, this can fully take into account the concerns of various stakeholders. On the other hand, it can form checks and balances against the United States and the West, thereby ensuring that this multilateral security framework can maintain peace on the peninsula in a long and effective manner.
US-Korea joint air exercise
In short, if the peninsula issue is detonated, it will be a disaster for all parties. By then, the United States will not only be unable to escape unscathed, but will also put itself in an embarrassing situation.
Therefore, the United States should follow China's advice, show political wisdom and courage, and do more things that are beneficial to enhancing mutual trust in order to promote a peaceful resolution of the peninsula issue.
