The so-called " Taiwan issue " is essentially a game between China and the United States.
Therefore, if we want to solve the Taiwan issue relatively thoroughly, we must take out the specific issues of and analyze the attitude of in detail, and analyze China and the United States.
starts with the United States.
After the World War , the United States, as the victorious country, abandoned its original military strategy, which was isolationism.
began to pursue interventionism around the world, and re-engaged in Asia.
The picture shows a cartoon of American interventionism, which is essentially American hegemonism
Among them, there are two very important ones, one is the Korean Peninsula and the other is the Southeast Asian Peninsula. They also refer to the very famous Korean War and Vietnam War events respectively.
These two wars were specific attempts by the United States to use military means to curb "communist expansion" , but they both failed.
Especially the Vietnam War , made the United States change from a strong party to a weak one in the world Cold War pattern. The racial and civil rights issues in the United States were also intensified because of the war, laying hidden dangers for its subsequent development.
The picture shows the Vietnam War
After this, the United States’ military expenditures suddenly expanded about three times. competed with the Soviet Union and engaged in an arms race, and the world Cold War pattern was formed.
In the early 1990s, , the Soviet Union collapsed. , The United States once again became the winner. gradually became the world hegemon and continued to pursue interventionism. After
, its claws extended to the Middle East.
The famous war in Afghanistan was not officially declared over until the Obama period in 2014. The US withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan is also considered by the outside world as a sign of the decline of the US regime in the Middle East .
The picture shows the U.S. military evacuating from Afghanistan
and The Iraq War, also known as the "Second Gulf War", This war also caused the United States to face some pressure from public opinion and received criticism internationally.
and finally and Syrian War . In these wars, America's goals were not achieved. Therefore, the final long-term impact of is that the United States' control over the Middle East will gradually decline. Once
control declines to the point where US dollars cannot be tied to oil, the US economy will be affected and weaken, which will shake the foundation of its hegemony .
The picture shows the link between the US dollar and oil, which has established the status of the US dollar.
At this time, the United States must reconsider its position in the center of the world. So it had to return to the path of balanced diplomacy.
We can see that the United States continues to establish various so-called cooperative organizations in various countries around the world to suppress countries that may threaten it.
But this trick does not seem to be very effective. The United States is still gradually entering a diplomatic dilemma.
However, after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, the United States seemed to have seen another opportunity. It strengthened alliance mechanisms such as NATO and the Four-nation Group, and opened up new economic organizations, hoping to re-demonstrate its strong influence and appeal to the outside world. Can the final result of
really be as expected? Can America continue to be the city on a hill for the entire world?
Not necessarily.
This picture shows that the United States wants to regain control of the world order
In fact, the diplomatic dilemma of the United States, refers to the unprecedented challenges that the United States has encountered around the world. And its essence, is that the existing US national strength cannot maintain a unipolar international order.
To put it bluntly, is in decline.
This can be reflected mainly from three aspects.
First, there is a problem with the national decision-making mechanism.
From the Trump period to the current Biden period, the Republican Party and the Democratic Party have developed to the point of "incompatibility", and the country is facing the danger of division.
The picture shows Trump and Biden, representing the Democratic Party and the Republican Party of the United States respectively.
Second, The United States has lost its ability to solve problems.
The director of Biden's National Government Development Agency believes that the reason why the United States is respected by many countries is because it is willing to take on challenging responsibilities and has the ability to complete some more difficult tasks. It is a "capable person" problem-solving" country.
But now, the United States is busy creating problems, provoking the Ukraine issue to deal with Russia, and then wants to follow the same pattern and use the Taiwan Strait issue to deal with China.
In addition to the domestic inflation and epidemic situation in the United States, there is no way to control and improve it. The outside world will not believe that it is still capable of solving international problems.
The picture shows the essence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine
Third, the United States has always boasted that it dominates the global liberal national order.
Facts have proved that this order is gradually disintegrating. Especially after the financial crisis broke out in 2008, anti-globalization forces have gradually become an eroding force of the liberal national order.
This is the legacy of after the struggle between the United States and the Soviet Union . is "democratization" and global reverse power.
Generally speaking, the diplomatic dilemma of the United States cannot be improved so easily. Although the Biden administration has taken a series of measures, such as reviving democracy at home and revitalizing manufacturing; uniting allies and partners internationally, while shaping China as an external threat to build domestic consensus.
all show that the United States wants a new diplomatic method that serves itself, to influence the adjustment of the world order, and also to preserve its own status.
Next, let’s talk about China. Before , China’s surrounding environment was really not optimistic.
first the threat from the sea.
The defeated and retired Kuomintang relied on the support of the United States and continued to stumbling upon China in the eastern waters of . At that time, the strength of the People's Liberation Army of China was not necessarily comparable to that of Taiwan. Even the weapons and equipment were a little inferior to others, but if they fought, they probably wouldn't lose.
But the scary thing is that you don’t even have a chance to attack.
In the 1950s, after American warships entered the Taiwan Strait, seemed to have discovered the New World and found a way to contain the Soviet Union and China.
So it united with China's two neighboring countries, Japan and South Korea, and began to build the Pacific island chain , which has also become the strategic focus of the United States in East Asia.
The picture shows the summit meeting of the United States, Japan and South Korea. From left to right are South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue, U.S. President Biden, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida
The island chain can be refined into three.
The first island chain, starts from Aleutian Islands in the north, connects Kuril Islands , Japanese Islands , Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan Island of China, and extends to the Philippines Island, Malay Islands and in the south. Indochina .
Not only that, the Kuomintang also joined forces with the United States to block the Taiwan Strait, resulting in mainland China being unable to pass through the Taiwan Strait for about 30 years. continues until China and the United States formally establish diplomatic relations, and mainland China can re-pass it.
The second island chain, is from the Ogasawara Islands and Iwo Jima Islands in southern Japan to the Mariana Islands , Palau Islands and so on in the Pacific.
These two island chains basically block China’s eastward and southward passage.
I won’t introduce much about the third island chain.
The picture shows that the areas involved in the island chain have military bases of the US military.
Next is the threat from the Soviet Union .
China and the Soviet Union have always had some minor frictions due to Zhenbao Island border issues in this area. Eventually the Zhenbao Island incident broke out, and the Chinese People's Liberation Army successfully repelled the Soviet army. This incident set off anti-Soviet resistance in the country wave.
While public opinion continues to ferment, both sides are also making military preparations.
The picture shows the Soviet tanks captured by the Chinese People's Liberation Army in the Zhenbao Island incident
By the mid-1970s, the Soviet Union gathered more than one million soldiers in northern China, equipped with missiles and nuclear weapons .
And China has also sent at least more than one million people to the northern region for reinforcements. At the same time, it seeks understanding with the United States and Japan to avoid a two-front war, which is not good for us.
But in the end, the war did not break out, but it was enough to show what kind of dangerous surrounding environment China faced at that time.
The picture shows people at that time, listening to the explanation about tanks
One last thing, India.
Actually India has always coveted China's Tibetan territory, so it always makes small moves.
After China ended its victory in the Tibetan counter-insurgency war, the then Indian Prime Minister Nehru made a territorial claim to China, covering an area of 120,000 kilometers, divided into Indian territory.
But China would not agree. After several fruitless communications and repeated concessions, a self-defense counterattack broke out between China and India.
There is another thing at this point in time, which is Cuban Missile Crisis . The United States and the Soviet Union were at war with each other and had no time to take into account other countries. allowed China to find a window period to counterattack India's invasion.
In the end, China won a beautiful victory. This war also caused India's prestige in the international community to plummet.
The surrounding environment in which China is now is relatively peaceful and stable.
This is mainly due to China's persistence in establishing good cooperative relations with neighboring countries despite the general environment of competition with the United States.
we can look at it from the following aspects.
China and Southeast Asia.
It is located at a "crossroads" between Asia and Oceania , the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean , and the Malacca Strait is an important maritime traffic artery. This region includes a total of 11 countries, including "land countries" such as Vietnam , Laos , etc., also includes "ocean countries" such as Singapore , Philippines , etc.
The picture shows countries in Southeast Asia
In recent years, China and Southeast Asian countries have continued to cooperate in various aspects, and have also established the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, in order to better promote related trade exchanges.
The two parties have created agricultural cooperation channels, built an anti-money laundering multilateral cooperation mechanism, exported textile products to each other, and even cooperated in cross-border e-commerce. It also uses the epidemic as a guide to establish public health and safety management on both sides.
It can be said that China and Southeast Asia basically cooperate in all aspects. With the continuous advancement and implementation of the "One Belt, One Road" strategy, the trade areas and space for cooperation between the two parties will be further enhanced, and Southeast Asian countries will become more dependent on the Chinese market. .
China and India.
There had been frictions between the two countries in the history. The Galwan Valley incident occurred two years ago, which brought the relationship between China and India to the bottom.
But the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict this year also made India realize that it needs to strengthen cooperation with neighboring countries. Then the Chinese Foreign Minister visited the Indian capital, which was considered to be the beginning of China-India relations breaking the ice and reaching further cooperation.
In addition to the China-India border, there is also a natural barrier between the two countries, the Himalayas. Therefore, India does not pose much of a threat to China.
China and Russia.
Contemporary Sino-Russian relations can be called It is China’s most mature international relationship in modern times.
As a result, under the pressure of the West (mainly the United States, which regards China and Russia as its biggest strategic rivals) , the two countries must unite and deal with the outside world in unison.
Secondly, due to the geographical relationship in the north, the two sides must always be wary of each other, including the ownership of Central Asia's sphere of influence and Russia's Siberia and so on.
However, judging from the current situation, as long as the United States continues to target us, the friendly strategic relationship between China and Russia can be maintained.
In addition, China continues to develop its national defense capabilities, ensuring that its maritime security is not threatened by the island chain.
not only actively helped Afghanistan with its post-war reconstruction; it also became an indispensable international force in solving Middle East issues; it also helped them with the construction of large-scale infrastructure in Africa.
Each and every one of them has shown to the world that China is a responsible, capable, and practical big country. Under such circumstances, how much worse can the environment of surrounding countries be?
The picture shows Chinese workers and African workers getting along happily
As for the Taiwan issue, we should look at the world. Its unique geographical location will bring China's national strength and international status to a higher level, so the United States will continue to carry out Interference does not want China to complete the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
But now, the United States is seeing its hegemony gradually declining, and its control over the world is also declining. At this moment, China should ensure the security of its surrounding environment, strengthen cooperation with them, and slowly penetrate to the point where they have no chance to "choose a side." will naturally stand on China's side.
When the time comes, regaining Taiwan will be a matter of taking advantage of the trend, rather than the current passive situation. Just remember one thing, the choice lies with mainland China.
