The war in Ukraine is still in full swing, but people have shifted their attention more to what will happen after the war enters a new stage. In any case, the battle on the battlefield in Eastern Ukraine will eventually come to an end, and by then, the focus of this war will shift to a broader and broader level. This will constitute a new stage of the Ukrainian war, that is, a stage in which battlefield battles will take a back seat and a more profound economic and ideological all-round and all-form war will be conducted.
After entering such a new stage, the United States will further block Russia globally, tighten the noose against Russia in an all-round way, and strive to cut off all options and vitality for Russia. To this end, the United States will do its best to force all countries to take a stand, either siding with the hegemon and becoming an accomplice of the Western bloc, or becoming the opposite of the hegemon and becoming the object of restrictions, suppression and blockade by the hegemon. Drawing a line with Russia, this will become the overall trend of the Ukrainian war entering a new stage.
Under such circumstances, China's position will become more prominent and the strategic pressure it will encounter will become heavier.
Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis , China has been faced with the problem of choosing sides, and has been under considerable pressure for this. Externally, the Western bloc led by the United States is forcing China to express its stance. Domestically, a quite strong force requires China to take the opportunity to move closer to the United States and cut off from Russia as soon as possible. After the war officially broke out, the pressure in this area suddenly increased. To this end, China and the United States even staged a remarkable direct confrontation (see the author's "This is just the first round of confrontation between China and the United States on the Ukraine issue", "On the Ukraine issue, China will not accept any intimidation" and other articles). But overall, so far, China has still played the role of a bystander, still sitting on the mountain and watching the fight between tigers. It has neither relied on the Western bloc to resonate with them or followed their footsteps, nor has it publicly supported Russia's alliance with Putin . Simply To put it simply, what was before is still what it is now.
But the question is, once the Ukrainian war enters the above-mentioned new stage, can China still maintain its usual attitude of wait-and-see as it has in the past?
In fact, Americans know very well that China's such cunning has objectively created a huge gap. This gap has to a certain extent made the Western bloc's blockade and sanctions against Russia aborted. It can be said that the failure of the West's economic blitzkrieg against Russia was largely due to China's lack of cooperation. If China could actively respond and cooperate, then the hegemonic group would be very likely to quickly win the economic blitzkrieg.
The hegemonic group has a very clear understanding of this. They have never turned a blind eye to the huge gap in China. They have made great efforts to deal with this situation before. Although it has not worked, they will continue to increase their efforts in the future. Try to seal this terrible strategic gap. In the new stage, they will be more clearly aware that victory or failure in this broad war with Russia depends to a large extent on how to deal with the China issue, which will become the new focus of the Ukrainian war as it enters a new stage.
Therefore, the struggle between China and the United States over the Ukraine issue will not slow down or subside just because this war has entered a new stage. On the contrary, it will become more intense, and the pressure faced by China will be even greater.
First of all, the space and room for China to continue to sit on the fence will become even narrower.
After the fighting on the Ukrainian battlefield becomes relatively calm, the White House authorities will shift more energy and resources to the economic and political fields, and will comprehensively and comprehensively Search Russia in all fields, and everything that is related to Russia and is beneficial to Russia will be ruthlessly " and ". Such actions will affect all fields and levels of international bilateral and multilateral relations, including the United Nations, the WTO, the G20, etc. China will be involved in many fields and at many levels, and China will have to face various challenges, large and small. An embarrassing choice.The same is true for the bilateral relations between China and Russia. The West will not allow the embargo on Russian oil and natural gas to leave a huge gap in China. They will definitely impose harsh blocking measures on this, which will threaten China more nakedly than before and force China to either obey. Their arrangement will require China to pay a huge price and leave little room for choice.
Secondly, the temptation and pressure to side with the West have increased unprecedentedly.
Western groups have always used "hit" and "pull" against China. It has always been an organic combination of "hit" and "pull". Therefore, in addition to the above-mentioned suppression and coercion, the United States will also use various means to induce and win over China. They will use rhetoric such as "standing with the majority of the world" and "avoiding becoming an international pariah" to win over China's pro-American dependent forces. , will also use methods such as "win-win cooperation", no trade war, and no support for "Taiwan independence" to seduce those in China who have illusions about Sino-US relations, and will also use methods such as "China-US decoupling" and "isolated sanctions" To scare those who lack confidence in the US struggle and whose stance is not firm enough.
At the same time, the forces in China that advocate compromise with the United States and reject the struggle against hegemony will set off wave after wave of calls to move closer to the United States. They will use the idea that China needs to "hide its capabilities and bide its time" politically, develop the economy, improve people's livelihood, and open up to the outside world. The United States and other countries use various reasons to influence the strategic decision-making orientation of intervening countries, and actively cooperate with the above-mentioned efforts of the United States to win over and induce, forming a synergistic force. Such complex and diverse gaming techniques will bring unprecedented pressure to China. This will be an unavoidable and must-recognize reality.
In the end, it is only a matter of time before China becomes a key target of attack by the West.
The war in Ukraine has pushed the relationship between the United States and Russia to the forefront. Russia has become an imminent opponent of hegemony and the current key target of attack. This situation has aroused some Chinese people. They believe that the world will re-emerge in the "grand triangle" relationship between China, the United States and Russia. The United States mainly deals with Russia, and China can still hide outside the Russia-US relationship, sit in the middle, sit on the sidelines, and maintain a detached status.
secretly believes that there will no longer be any strategic "grand triangle" structure in the world in the future, and the so-called "grand triangle" relationship between China, the United States and Russia can only be superficial. In fact, in the strategic planning of the United States, the target positioning for China and Russia has been very clear. China has been regarded as the main enemy of the United States, and Russia has been relegated to a secondary position. This has been firmly established and will not change because of the war in Ukraine. Changes, even if the United States bears the brunt of confronting Russia, will not change this established strategic policy. The only difference is the size of the steps and the speed of the pace. Therefore, once the war in Ukraine turns to another stage, the White House is likely to formulate a strategic integration plan for China and Russia, and will make systematic arrangements in accordance with the basic concept of "two-front warfare." This means that at a certain point after the Ukrainian war enters a new stage, a stormy blow will once again fall on China.
To be honest, it is still difficult to predict how much and how severe the strategic pressure China will face in the future. There are only two things that are certain:
First, the pressure will become increasingly greater. Nowadays, this pressure is nothing but trivial. Any current situation Arguments that China and the United States are entering into a strategic stalemate or that China can launch a strategic decisive war against the United States are all ignorant and arrogant clamor. China's problem is still to carry out strategic defense and to fight a tactical counterattack in strategic defense;
二The pressure to choose sides brought about by the war in Ukraine has not passed and will not slow down. It will be further intensified after the war in Ukraine. It will become the second round of the game between China and the United States on the Ukraine crisis, and it will become China’s overall strategic challenge and part of the crisis;
From this, we can draw the following rough predictions:
- The possibility of Sino-US relations "coming out" and "getting back on track" is completely zero;
- Japan's rearmament will be accelerated. The next step will be further openness and clarity;
- the Asia-Pacific version of NATO will take shape and will become more solid and effective;
This is the strategic prospect of the Asia-Pacific region in the future, and it is also a severe situation that China must face head-on.
Note: The author of this article is Zhang Zhikun, a core member of "Qin'an Strategic Think Tank", and is an original work of this platform . In the new year, I wish everyone can join hands to defeat the epidemic, curb hegemony, and move towards a better future together.
