Recently, the US government released three defense documents 2022 versions of the "Defense Strategy", "Nuclear Posture Assessment" and "Missile Defense Assessment". Compared with previous versions, these three documents have made significant adjustments this year. Overall, according to the characterization of , Wang Wenbin, spokesperson for of Chinese Foreign Ministry, this is to list China as the primary opponent, target China everywhere, and openly conduct nuclear blackmail against China.
(China's Dongfeng-41 intercontinental ballistic missile)
2022 version of the "National Defense Strategy" is the overall guiding document. In fact, the document should have been released six months ago, but the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has delayed the release date of the US government. According to the American media, this is to assess the extent of Russia's threat to the United States and its allies. With the Russian army suffering a series of failures on the Ukrainian battlefield, the U.S. government seems to have concluded that the long-term "threat" of the United States is not Russia, but China.
The previous version of the National Defense Strategy wrote: "We are worried about Russia and China." This year's document marks a major shift in the U.S. defense strategy: After focusing on the Middle East counter-terrorism for the past decade, the U.S. will turn to compete with China and Russia's major powers. The 2022 edition of the document has adjusted this framework: it lists China as an "urgent challenge" for the United States, Russia as a "serious threat" of "emergency and sharpness", while North Korea and Iran followed closely. To achieve the goal of "leading China", the document lists three priorities, but the overall description is vague:
first, pointing out that "integrated deterrence" is the cornerstone of the U.S. defense strategy, calling on the U.S. military to work seamlessly with other U.S. government agencies, international allies and partners in all areas, theaters and conflict areas, with a view to having multiple options to "deter the enemy's aggression."
Second, advancing military operations and various initiatives aimed at completing the U.S. Department of Defense strategic priorities over time, such as organizing exercises to allow U.S. military training how to mobilize and safeguard logistics during the “great power conflict”.
Third, calling for "building lasting advantages", including reforms within the Pentagon , such as investment in manpower, improving procurement processes, and making US military infrastructure more flexible in the face of climate change.
(China's ballistic missile nuclear submarine)
These vague words have been criticized by many American media and experts because it does not give any actual action plan and timetable. However, this public "Defense Strategy" document is a non-confidential version, and there is also a confidential version that can only be read by members of the U.S. Congress. Therefore, it is not ruled out that there are specific plans on the confidential version of the document. But we need to note that the words “anti-access/area denial” or “A2/AD” appear again. This term was often used in the "National Defense Strategy" during the administration of Obama. It was a concept specifically proposed for the People's Liberation Army's Dongfeng missile strength and its ability to strike against first island chain . During the administration of Trump's , this term was basically abandoned. However, it is now reappearing, and in the "Team Planning" chapter, it requires the U.S. military to develop concepts and capabilities that can mitigate the opponent's A2/AD capabilities, including weapons that "can penetrate opponent's defense within the opponent's range."
(the imagination picture of the H-20 stealth strategic bomber drawn by military fans)
What we need to pay more attention to is the 2022 version of "Nuclear Posture Assessment". The document recommends canceling the Tomahawk ship-based nuclear cruise missiles added by the Trump administration in the previous version of the Nuclear Posture Assessment, and "as the capacity is becoming increasingly limited, maintenance costs continue to rise", calling for the retirement of the B83-1 gravity nuclear bomb, but retaining the W76-2 low-equivalent nuclear warheads launched by Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines and installing them on the Trident D5 ballistic missile. But these details are not the focus. The focus we need to pay attention to is: this document openly claims that China's nuclear arsenal will become an "existential threat" to the United States.
American media commented that in the past 70 years of history, the US government has used the term "existential threat" to describe only one enemy: the former Soviet Union/Russia. However, the term is used in China's nuclear arsenal in the 2022 edition of the document. The document openly claimed: "In the next few years, China's nuclear selection scope will be expanded and it is possible to adopt a broader nuclear strategy to achieve its goals, including nuclear deterrence and the limited use of nuclear weapon first."
(hypersonic missiles will become our killer weapon to break through the US missile defense system)
file stated that China hopes to have at least 1,000 carrying nuclear warheads by 2030, and said the People's Liberation Army can use these nuclear warheads for "deterrence purposes, including against the United States' allies and partners in the region." The US response is that the US military will "maintain very high standards for nuclear use", but it does not rule out the use of nuclear weapons to retaliate against non-nuclear strategic threats to US domestic, overseas US military or allies. Biden promised in the 2020 presidential campaign that the US nuclear arsenal should only be used for deterrence or retaliation for nuclear attacks, but it has been criticized and opposed by American "hawkish" politicians. Therefore, the document stated that the Biden administration reviewed past nuclear policies and concluded that “because competitors are developing and deploying a range of non-nuclear capabilities that may cause strategic damage to the United States and allies”, the “not first use” and “single purpose” policies will lead to unacceptable levels of risk.
This means that the United States may first use nuclear weapons to attack in conventional military conflicts with China or Russia in the future, which is to "loosen" the use of nuclear weapons from the national strategic level. In this regard, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin pointed out at a press conference that this is a nuclear blackmail, and emphasized that China has the ability and confidence to safeguard national security interests, and the US nuclear blackmail cannot scare China.
In fact, during the fight against the U.S. aggression and aid Korea, the US government issued a nuclear blackmail to China, and the final result is obvious to all the world. It has only been more than 70 years since then. Has the US side forgotten the lessons of the failure that year so quickly?
It is worth noting that China has recently emphasized the need to establish a "credible strategic deterrent force", which is different from the "minimum nuclear deterrence" policy we emphasized in the past. This shows that we will also strengthen the construction of strategic nuclear forces and counter the strategic adventurism of the United States.
