01 Qi Tan
"A few years ago, it suddenly occurred to me that we live in a world that is partially experiencing the Third World War. Today, I believe that the Third World War has already begun. "
This is June On the 14th, Pope Francis issued a warning.
This is not a casual comment, but a view expressed in an exclusive interview with "La Civilta Cattolica", one of the oldest Catholic journals in Italy.
In view of the pope’s special status in the West, his words are certainly not casual remarks, but are conveying some thoughtful views.
Let’s first analyze the Pope’s words.
1. "The world is shrouded in war."
- "正" is used here, which is a kind of ongoing tense; it means that the war is covering the whole world, and the worst time has not yet come. If the situation worsens, that is the peak of the war.
2. " A few years ago it suddenly occurred to me that we are partially experiencing World War III."
- What happened in the past few years? The answer is that the epidemic is raging and causing an economic crisis; Myanmar, Afghanistan, Nagorno-Karabakh, Syria, Congo (DRC), Nigeria and other places are experiencing continuous turmoil and war.
3. " Today, I believe that the Third World War has begun. "
- The so-called today refers to the war in Ukraine.
The reason why Francis made such a judgment. Mainly because the previous turbulences and wars were local turbulences and did not endanger the global village as a whole. In today's war in Ukraine, the nuclear power Russia has personally ended. The United States leads NATO and supports Ukraine behind the scenes. Once Russia and NATO clash, human civilization will be in danger.
Part of what Francis said makes sense, that is, if NATO and Russia fight, it will most likely end in a nuclear war. According to the nuclear weapons inventory of the United States and Russia, once a nuclear war begins, there will be no tomorrow for mankind. Some parts of
are more like alarmist. In fact, local wars in the global village have never stopped. According to his logic, world wars have always been fought.
Francis’s words should be interpreted in conjunction with his previous words.
On May 3, Francis talked about the war in Ukraine in an interview with the Italian media and said a very ambiguous statement:
First of all, he condemned "the brutality and cruelty of the Russian army" in the interview.
——This is political correctness belonging to the West.
Second, he warned, “We need to move away from the usual Little Red Riding Hood model, where Little Red Riding Hood is good and the wolf is bad.”
– Don’t view war in a black-and-white way, right or wrong. He believed that there was no absolute right or absolute wrong in war. In the West, where public opinion is extreme, this kind of thinking is considered alien.
Third, he emphasized that the reason for the war was "NATO's roar at Russia's doorstep" which angered Russia; at the same time, he expressed his hope to visit Moscow as soon as possible to discuss with Russian President Putin the topic of ending the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
- This statement is completely defensive for Russia.
In the West, few well-known figures dare to talk about the war in Ukraine so openly, at least politicians from various countries dare not say so. Because the result of saying this is the death of political life.
Why does the Pope dare to defend Russia?
02 Three levels of reasons
Reason 1, personal age.
Ordinary people live in society and must consider political correctness in everything they say and do. If you are not careful, you will encounter social death , and the rest of your life will be ruined. In today's Western world, supporting Ukraine and criticizing Russia is politically correct; defending Russia is politically incorrect.
Francis was born in 1936 and is now 86 years old. He has reached the final stage of his life and many consequences can be ignored. Anyway, we can't do anything to such an old man.
Of course, under normal circumstances, even if the elderly do not consider themselves, they still have to consider the future of their family or faction. But Francis is different. He has a unique identity and can do unique things.
Reason 2, special identity.
Francis is the 266th Pope. In the Christian civilization circle, the pope is a unique existence.
Before industrial civilization, the Pope had the supreme status. Emperors and kings of various European countries all depended on the Pope's face.
But the Black Death in medieval Europe shook the foundation of the church's rule.
So Italy began to engage in the Renaissance .
Spain and Portugal began to engage in great navigation sports.
Britain, Germany, and France began to carry out religious reforms.
These major events allowed Europe to take the lead in the stage of industrial civilization, transform into a great power, and colonize the world.
Industrial civilization accelerated the fission of Europe and pushed the thinking of the Reformation to every corner. The so-called religious reform is actually very simple, that is, "God (the spiritual world) returns to God, and Caesar (the real world) returns to Caesar."
Then the pope became a special existence in the Christian world:
1. The house he lived in ( Vatican ) became an independent country (the smallest in the world, about the same as a village in China).
2. Although he no longer has real power, in the eyes of some Christians, he is still God's representative in the global village.
3. The Pope has the right to express his personal views on various matters in the global village. At the same time, he does not have to bear secular responsibilities like politicians.
So as Pope Francis, even if he says something that politicians dare not say (justifying Russia’s launch of the war in Ukraine), it actually doesn’t matter.
Reason 3, Europe saves itself.
03 Europe saves itself
In essence, the Pope has more reasons to be unhappy with Russia. Because Russia is an Orthodox Christian region, it has had a hostile relationship with the Holy See for thousands of years. Although most of Ukraine also believes in Orthodox Christianity, the proportion of Catholics is increasing. The countries to the west of Ukraine are all Catholic.
From the perspective of religious struggle, Russia’s attack on Ukraine is an attempt by the Orthodox region to threaten the Catholic region. As the spiritual leader of the Catholic Church, Pope Francis can stand up and “rebuke the heretics.” But he didn't do that.
The reason why Francis did not rebuke Russia but defended Russia is ultimately because he represents France, Germany, and Italy in old Europe and does not want to completely fall out with Russia.
The essence of the Ukrainian problem is NATO's eastward expansion. But NATO is led by the United States and Britain, not France, Germany, and Italy.
The eastward expansion of NATO led by the United States and Britain is actually creating a confrontation between Russia and the EU.
The reason why the United States and Britain provoked confrontation on the European continent is simple: by creating turmoil, they allowed Europe's talents, wealth, and resources to flow out (mostly to North America, and a small amount to Britain), thereby taking over their own assets at a high level and alleviating their own crisis of high debt.
But old Europe, represented by Germany, France, and Italy, is unwilling to be at the mercy of Britain and the United States. So they want the war in Ukraine to end as soon as possible and to restore tranquility to Europe.
A week ago, French President Macron , German Chancellor Schulz, and Italian Prime Minister Draghi three veterans made an appointment to visit Kiev to promote Russia-Ukraine talks, hoping that Europe would calm down.
Their bargaining chip was to promote Russia-Ukraine negotiations by using Ukraine's accession to the EU as bait; and then granted Ukraine the status of an EU candidate country.In return, Putin also stated that he would not object to Ukraine joining the EU, which could be regarded as a signal to end the war through peace talks.
However, Macron, Schultz, and Draghi are politicians after all. In the extreme political correctness (blaming Russia) atmosphere in the West, they do not dare to directly pressure Ukraine to negotiate peace with Russia. They can only indirectly promote Ukraine to negotiate with Russia.
Pope Francis, like France, Germany and Italy, represents the interests of old Europe, both in terms of historical inheritance and practical interests. He defended Russia at this time ( NATO's roar at Russia's doorstep angered Russia ). In fact, he was speaking for the politicians of old Europe, and his essence was to safeguard the interests of old Europe.
After all, politicians who defend Russia are likely to be kicked out of office. The pope is theoretically outside the scope of secular jurisdiction and is one of the few heavyweights in Europe who is suitable to express the political demands of old Europe.
In addition, the Pope is old; for him to stand up and speak out is essentially the traditional forces of old Europe trying to save themselves (they neither want to be consumed by Russia, nor want to be sucked by the United States and Britain).
04 Summary
1. The most brutal stage of the Ukrainian war may have passed.
Old European powers such as France, Germany, and Italy and Russia are trying to find a way to reconcile at the political level.
2. But the war may be far from over. Because the United States and Britain have huge influence in Eastern Ukraine.
The United States and Britain can not only directly influence the strategic choices of the Ukrainian government, but also the choices of extremely anti-Russian countries such as Poland and Lithuania .
The fire of Russophobia in Poland and Lithuania has intensified. Not only do they hate Russia, but they can also directly find excuses to engage in , Belarus, and , thereby lengthening Russia's front and making Russia very passive.
3. The layout methods of the United States and Britain are very vicious:
not only directly intensified the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and turned the brotherly countries against each other;
also held back Russia and the European Union on the Ukrainian issue;
even used the Russophobia in Eastern Europe to turn the European continent Complicate the problem to maximize your own interests.
——This is worth learning from China.
