On June 27, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated that Ukrainian President Zelensky made it clear during a video call with G7 Group leaders that the G7 Group should increase its control of Ukraine We will use our best efforts to help Ukraine end its armed conflict with Russia before the end of this year. In response to Zelensky's remarks, Russian Presidential Spokesperson Peskov responded on June 28. According to Agence France-Presse , Peskov said: "As long as Ukraine is willing, all conflicts can be ended today. As long as the Ukrainian government is willing to order all Ukrainian nationalists to surrender, let all Ukrainian troops surrender, and satisfy all Russia's demands. If conditions are met, all conflicts will end and the Russian army will stop military operations today.”
In the early days of the conflict, Russia repeatedly urged the Ukrainian army to surrender. President Putin and Defense Minister Shoigu both gave speeches calling for it. The Ukrainian soldiers put down their weapons and returned to their families. However, in the first stage of the special military operation, the Russian army suffered many unexpected losses due to carelessness and insufficient preparation. For example, many generals were killed in the battle, and the Black Sea Fleet flagship "Moscow" destroyer was destroyed by the Ukrainian army. Sink and so on. This series of battle losses greatly boosted Ukraine's morale and even gave rise to some unrealistic illusions in Ukraine and the West. As a result, Russia's campaign to persuade them to surrender fell into a low ebb. After several months of silence, the Kremlin once again issued a statement persuading Ukraine to surrender, which may reflect the drastic changes currently taking place on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield.
At present, the Russian army has captured Severodonetsk, an important town in Ukraine's Luhansk Oblast , and has also invaded the urban area of Lischichansk, another important city. Previously, Lieutenant General Konashenkov, spokesperson of the Russian Ministry of Defense, pointed out that there are currently more than 10,000 Ukrainian troops garrisoning in Lisichansk. However, according to the judgment of military experts from all parties, these more than 10,000 people are either fighting for dozens of consecutive times. The exhausted division, which is very short of sky and supplies, or is the remnant and defeated general who fled from Severodonetsk, has problems with its combat effectiveness and will to fight. The British media "Sky News" previously interviewed a Ukrainian Marine Corps commander. He said that before the war began, his troops were all composed of veterans who had undergone rigorous training and had actual combat experience, but now these veterans have More than 80% of the troops were consumed. In order to maintain the strength of the troops, he had to let a large number of "strong men" who had only received training for a week or two join his troops. There is already news that many Ukrainian troops are abandoning their positions and fleeing in all directions.
At the same time, the attitude of Western countries towards Ukraine has also changed. As Aerospace Jun pointed out in a previous article, although Ukraine claims to have blocked the "iron hoofs of Russian invaders" for Europe, for the people of most European countries, especially the people of Western European countries, He said that Russia today has neither the ability nor the will to invade them, and the threat Zelensky preached simply does not exist. However, the soaring prices of natural gas and the unprecedented inflation since the creation of the Eurozone are real things happening around us.
Based on this current situation, people in many European countries are tired of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Many people do not understand why their own country's government has to pay such a high price to interfere in other people's wars. Under this circumstance, the voices in European politics to abandon Ukraine are getting louder and louder. The reason why Zelensky hopes to end the conflict before the end of this year may also be related to the attitude of and the EU towards Russia. It is currently midsummer, and natural gas demand in EU countries is at a low point. Once autumn and winter arrive, the EU's demand for natural gas will surge. Will people in Western countries really support Ukraine by then, even if they endure hunger and cold? This is obviously unrealistic.
Moreover, the conflict between the Ukrainian government and the army is also on the verge of breaking out.Belarusian President Lukashenko previously stated that the Ukrainian military was quite dissatisfied with President Zelensky's behavior of bypassing the military command system and directly interfering with front-line command. In early May, British military advisers formulated a plan to recapture Snake Island on May 9, hoping to make Russia look embarrassed on the day of the Victory Day military parade. Although the Ukrainian General Staff firmly opposed the suicide plan, Zelensky followed the advice of British military advisers. As a result, this counterattack not only failed to achieve any results, but also lost a large number of elite Marine Corps soldiers and many helicopters that were difficult to replace. Therefore, the Ukrainian military has been formulating a coup plan against Zelensky and is ready to overthrow him at any time. Recently, the Zelensky government has repeatedly refused to retreat from the Northern Donetsk garrison, which has been surrounded by Russian troops on three sides, causing a large number of unnecessary casualties among soldiers. This may once again intensify the conflict between the Ukrainian government and the army.
All in all, Ukraine is currently suffering a major military defeat, and its army is showing signs of total collapse; in terms of politics and diplomacy, the West is gradually getting tired of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and its aid to Ukraine may be reduced at any time, and aid may be cut off in the future. It is entirely possible, so Russia seized this opportunity to persuade Ukraine to surrender again. From a rational point of view, Ukraine should seize this opportunity. Although the Ukrainian army is in a very embarrassed state, it still maintains a basic level of organization and has not collapsed. Western aid has not been cut off, which means that Ukraine still has negotiations with Russia. capital. Once the Ukrainian army is completely defeated and Western aid is completely cut off, if Ukraine wants to negotiate with Russia again, the conditions offered by Russia will probably be much harsher.
