The Russian army unexpectedly announced its withdrawal from Snake Island on June 30. The reason was that it was in good faith and would not hinder the United Nations from establishing a channel to transport agricultural products out of Ukraine . Ukraine said that it was they who drove the Russian troops out of Snake Island. So, what are the facts? What does it mean? How will the war develop in the future?
1. What the two sides said
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on the 230th that it would withdraw its troops from Snake Island out of goodwill. This move shows that Russia will not hinder the establishment of a channel by the United Nations to transport agricultural products out of Ukraine.
The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that this move will prevent the Ukrainian government from using the food crisis to hype up the issue, attributing the food crisis to the Russian army's refusal to allow food to be shipped out.
Russia has also kicked the ball to Uzbekistan - now in order to restore supply, Uzbekistan should clean up the mines deployed along the Black Sea coast, including port waters.
However, Ukraine’s account of the Snake Island incident is completely different.
Snake Island was shelled on the night of the 29th
The Ukrainian Armed Forces said on Thursday that the Russian troops withdrew because they had conducted a "successful" military operation.
On Monday, the Ukrainian military said it had hit a second missile defense system on the island, as well as multiple Russian soldiers. From Wednesday night to early Thursday morning, the Ukrainian army once again launched a military attack on Snake Island.
Earlier on Thursday, Ukraine's armed forces said they were assessing the results of the night operation and that it could be considered a "success." The enemy hastily evacuated the remaining garrison with two speedboats and may have left the island. "
Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny said the "occupiers" withdrew after being "unable to resist our artillery fire, missiles and air strikes," and he also thanked Odessa areas for their support. The Ukrainian army "took maximum measures to liberate a strategically important part of our territory."
2. The threat of shelling by the Ukrainian army is growing
"The sudden departure of Snake Island, which the Russian army has controlled since February, is obviously not entirely due to "goodwill," said an analysis from the Russian pikabu website, but because of the Ukraine has been shelling Snake Island increasingly since June
A report from Ukraine’s Southern Command on June 27 said they fired rockets and shelling at Snake Island and recorded more than 10 hits in June. On the 17th, 21st, 22nd and 25th, the Ukrainian armed forces also issued similar statements.
In addition, some experts analyzed the Ukrainian army’s tactics to consume the Russian garrison on Snake Island by increasing the number of shellings:
“In the dark. , the target was marked by a drone, and then the howitzer launched an attack through indirect fire. Its mission was not to hit the Russian target, but to consume the ammunition of the Shedao air defense system. Then rocket launcher plunged the island into a sea of fire. After a busy night, in the morning Ukrainian artillery began to work more accurately, and this shelling could last for several hours. In addition, the intensity of attacks increased in June. If local residents of the Odessa region used to hear shelling every 30 minutes, recently they heard it every 5 minutes. "
"The Ukrainian army's tactics are effective. Now, actual control of the island is tantamount to suicide," a Russian expert analyzed this.
Why is the threat from Uzbek shelling increasing? The successive arrival of artillery assisted by the West is an important factor.
Russia's "Viewpoint" An analysis article on the 30th quoted military experts as saying that it is known from intelligence that the Ukrainian armed forces are preparing for a large-scale attack on Snake Island, which will be difficult to repel with existing troops. They may have used Western supplies. The French "Caesar" self-propelled artillery, these self-propelled artillery are deployed on Kubansky Island, which is located in the Odessa area near the mouth of the Danube River, 36 kilometers away from Snake Island, within its range.This shelling threatened the lives of people on Snake Island, so the Russian army made the decision to withdraw.
3. The Russian army may give up the amphibious landing in Odessa
"When we captured the island territory, didn't we know that it would be attacked by Ukrainian army artillery fire?" A netizen of the Russian "Viewpoint" raised a sharp question. I believe this is also the doubt in the minds of many Russians.
The Russian "Ukraina.ru" website interviewed Yuri Knutov, director of the Air Defense Forces Museum, and answered a series of questions.
Knutov
Knutov said that initially, the Russian army planned to use Snake Island during an amphibious landing in Odessa. But the Ukrainian army laid a large minefield there, making it difficult for ships to approach the coast, and the coast was also mined. In addition, there is now news that Ukraine has received the Western anti-ship missile . These are older missiles, but they are still not easy to defend against, and not all Russian warships have systems capable of intercepting these cruise missiles. France also said it would provide its own missiles, which typically fly at an altitude of 1-2 meters.
The analysis of Russian experts actually admitted that the Russian army's initial goals were too high and had no possibility of being achieved, and Snake Island became useless.
In a sense, the evacuation of Snake Island is somewhat similar to the evacuation of Kiev. The initial goals were all set too high, and then they had to give up.
A few months ago, the sinking of the Black Sea Fleet flagship "Moscow" actually reflected the fact that Russian warships were at a disadvantage in the confrontation with the Ukrainian anti-ship weapons supported by Western intelligence. Ukraine has not found a good way to reverse its disadvantage in the eastern battlefield, so it has turned its offensive to the southern front. Snake Island has always been a key target of attack. There are constant reports of Russian warships being sunk, and even drilling platforms have been attacked. With the deployment of more Western weapons, the disadvantages of Russian warships have become more and more obvious. At this time, it no longer makes sense to stick to Snake Island.
The withdrawal from Snake Island also marks that the Russian army has basically given up its strategy of capturing Odessa through amphibious operations .
"Haimas" system
Knutov said that although the evacuation of Snake Island was unpleasant, it was too risky to conduct amphibious operations at the risk of losing ships and personnel lives. After the landing in Odessa was suspended, we decided not to risk the lives of our soldiers by remaining on the island, which was under constant shelling. The enemy has the new "Haimas" system, which can easily take out the entire island. Its accuracy is about 7-10 meters. Given all this, we left the island.
Knutov also believed that Odessa would have its turn to be captured at that moment. But not as quickly as many hoped. After the Russian army captures Lischichansk, its troops will deploy an attack on Slavyansk / Kramatorsk , and the Russian army needs to concentrate its forces. Because to wipe out the 30,000 Ukrainian troops there in one fell swoop, you need to gather 100,000 troops.
4. How to fight the battle of Snake Island in the future
Snake Island is small in area and flat in terrain, making it easy to attack and difficult to defend. It will be difficult for anyone to defend this island.
Therefore, after the Russian army withdraws, the Ukrainian army may not send troops to defend Snake Island. Even if it sends troops, it will be difficult to defend it.
But no matter what, the withdrawal of the Russian army has greatly weakened its control over the western Black Sea, leaving room for Ukraine to open up the Black Sea channel. The Ukrainian army may transport various aids, including military aid, through here.
The Russian army will naturally not allow the Ukrainian army to move freely and will carry out corresponding countermeasures.
"The next stage of the battle for Snake Island is to destroy the naval and airborne attack capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the nearby area," said a source of the Russian Telegram channel "Rybar".
Alexander Bartosh of the Russian Academy of Military Sciences also told the "View" newspaper: "I think the next step may be a Russian statement on the complete demilitarization of Snake Island. In the future, it will be necessary to prevent the deployment of Ukrainian armed forces garrison there.""
Bartosz added that it was the United Nations that called on Moscow to ensure unimpeded exports of Ukrainian grains, and since it was them who asked for this, they should guarantee a certain status for the island, including in terms of demilitarization.
"How will we do it? Quickly reconquer Snake Island with minimal losses? " Knutov's view on this is that if necessary, the Russian army will use high-precision weapons to carry out a large-scale attack on the island, and then organize an amphibious operation. But so far, this does not make sense, because there are We need to resolve the war in Donbas
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