As time goes by, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has entered its 129th day. The protracted war of has been fought from spring to summer, but there is still no sign of ceasefire, and new variables are still emerging in the tense situation.
In the past few days, the most important trend in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is that after the Russian army captured the city of Severodonetsk, it continued to advance towards the city of Lischichansk . The Russian side claimed to have taken control of the city's oil refinery, but the Ukrainian side Denial;
Second, the Russian army relatively "suddenly" announced the withdrawal of troops from Snake Island. The reason was to prevent the United States and Western countries and Ukraine from accusing Russia of obstructing Ukrainian food on the grounds that "Russian troops control Snake Island." Exports have caused tensions in the international grain market and increased risks of food crises.
Snake Island
Among them, as a strategic location and chokepoint in the Black Sea region, the Russian army captured Snake Island on the first day of the war and held on to it for more than 4 months. It is indeed very unfortunate to withdraw troops now that they are told to withdraw. Ordinary. And this also makes Russia's reason for withdrawing its troops more prominent, even though this may only be a "superficial reason".
At present, with the withdrawal of Russian troops from Snake Island, Ukraine's external food export channels have been theoretically "opened". Based on this, many countries, including the United States, Britain, France and Germany, are now paying attention to one thing - āHow to transport grain from Ukraine.
A few days ago, German Chancellor Scholz, who had just hosted the G7 summit, once again publicly stated that the Group of Seven (G7) hopes to work with the United Nations and international parties to jointly promote Ukraine's food exports, to ease tensions in global grain markets.
British Prime Minister Johnson made a rare statement that the UK is willing to assist in clearing mines on the southern coast of Ukraine, and will consider providing insurance for ships to transfer food stranded in Ukraine.
Obviously, after the Russian troops evacuated from Snake Island and the grain transportation channels in the Wunan region and the Black Sea were "opened", the United States, Britain, France, Germany and other countries all aimed at one goal - seize the time to transport grain from Ukraine.
After all, Ukraine is known as the "European granary" and is one of the world's largest suppliers of wheat. Like Russia, it plays an important role in the international grain market. Now, due to the war, Ukraine's agricultural activities have been affected, and it is estimated that it will be difficult to play the role of "Europe's granary" this year.
Therefore, Europe is now rushing to transport "reserve grain harvested last year" from Ukraine to cope with the food crisis that may erupt.
However, while the United States, Britain, France and Germany are still calling for and planning to transport food to Ukraine, Turkey is preparing to "take the first step".
html On the 2nd, Erdogan said after talking to Putin and Zelensky respectively that Turkey is cooperating with Russia and Ukraine and will send 20 ships to participate in Ukraineās grain transportation. It can transport Ukrainian wheat and other grains from Shipped out by the Black Sea and re-exported to other countries in need.Erdogan also said that Turkey will also establish a command center with the participation of Russia, Ukraine and the United Nations to manage the "food corridor" . The center will be located in Istanbul.
In addition, Erdogan also "calmly" stated that Turkey's current food inventory is in "good" condition.
I have to say that Erdoganās statement is not only a large amount of information, but also has a profound impact on . At least 3 signals were released.
, regarding Ukraineās grain transportation, TĆ¼rkiye is ādefinitely sure to winā this time.
The German Prime Minister is still calling, the British Prime Minister is still planning, and Erdogan has made a series of preparations - 20 grain transport ships are ready; the grain transportation command center will be located in Istanbul, etc.
In short, Turkey is prepared to "take over all" the shipment of Ukrainian grain out of the Black Sea. Even if it cannot take over, it still wants to occupy the bulk and monopolize the opportunity.
, Turkey is fully prepared this time, and it is not a "free service". After the food is shipped from Ukraine, it will be exported to countries in need. Turkey will gain a lot of benefits this time.
Of course, it is not easy to obtain this benefit. It requires at least the recognition of Russia and Ukraine, the consent of the United Nations, etc.
Obviously, judging from Erdogan's statement, Turkey has "taken care" of everything and is ready to take action.
3, Turkeyās busy schedule this time is not just for the benefit of grain import and export. Erdogan said very directly that Turkeyās current grain inventory status is only āgoodā, not very good. Obviously Turkey also faces food risks.
In short, since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Turkey has indeed been very active in mediating and has taken this opportunity to seek many benefits. For example, it launched a surprise attack on the Kurdish armed forces, which caught the United States off guard and further strengthened its military presence in the Middle East or it may be that "obstructed" Sweden and Finland to join NATO , thus "bilking" the United States and Europe.
Now, the Russian army has withdrawn its troops from Snake Island, giving Turkey another opportunity to "stand down and be humble".
However, just as the United Kingdom, Germany, Turkey and other countries were "getting ready" , Putin rarely made three promises.
A few days ago, when Putin met with the visiting Indonesian President Jokowi at the Kremlin , he talked about Ukraine's food shipment and made three commitments.
Commitment 1: Russia will not block Ukraineās food exports, nor has it ever thought of blocking its food exports, nor does it want to see a global food crisis break out.
There is no doubt that in the context of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine that has not yet subsided, if Ukraine's grain is to be exported smoothly, in addition to Kiev, Russia's attitude is also crucial.
Now, this promise made by Putin is obviously one of the most important prerequisites for Britain, Germany and Turkey to transport grain from Ukraine.
Commitment 2: Russia will not prevent Ukrainian troops from demining ports and releasing grain-carrying ships.
The implication is that if Ukrainian grain is to be exported, the mines in the relevant waters must first be cleared. In this matter, Russia will not obstruct it, but it will not help either. The Ukrainian army needs to take action on its own.
One thing to note here is that Ukraine has deployed a large number of mines in the surrounding waters due to concerns about Russian warships launching attacks from the sea. It is easy to deploy, but very troublesome to clean up. In addition, Ukraine currently lacks troops, and has even fewer troops devoted to demining and work.
This is one of the reasons why British Prime Minister Johnson is rarely "warm-hearted" and expressed his willingness to help.
But no matter what, Putin's statement at least shows that when the Ukrainian army is clearing mines in the relevant sea areas, the Russian army will not take advantage of it and launch an attack.
Commitment 3: Russia will ensure the safety of grain transportation.
On the one hand, this is equivalent to giving various food transport forces a "reassurance" ; on the other hand, this is also a decision made by Russia out of a "necessity" . After all, what if something happens to a grain ship in the Black Sea and countries blame Russia?
By then, the Russian military's plan to prove that "the food crisis has nothing to do with Russia" at the expense of "actively evacuating from Snake Island" is likely to come to nothing.
Therefore, whether it is for the safety of grain transport ships or Russia's own "security", it is indeed necessary for the Russian military to provide certain protection.
Finally, letās talk about two superficial views.
First, food is the most important thing for people. The food issue is not only a matter of people's livelihood, but also a major event related to the stability of the global situation.
Although the Russian troops have withdrawn from Snake Island and Ukrainian grain is expected to be exported smoothly, which is a positive signal for mitigating global food risks; it is undeniable that the food risks caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict have not been resolved.
For example, Russia is not only a major exporter of grain, but also a major exporter of chemical fertilizers. However, due to US and Western sanctions, Russian fertilizers cannot be shipped out, and agricultural production activities in many places around the world have been affected to a certain extent.
In this regard, the United Nations has issued a warning that the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on global food problems will last until 2023. calls on all parties to unite and respond together.
Therefore, in order to cope with and solve the food crisis, concerted efforts and coordinated cooperation by all parties are the top priority.
Secondly, if the conflict between Russia and Ukraine does not cease fire, the changes in tensions and risks will not stop. Even if Putin has made multiple promises, it may not be able to truly reassure the international community.
After all, war is cruel and merciless, and it will not bring any benefits except suffering and tragedy. In addition to food risks, this protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine also brings energy, humanitarian and other crises, as well as more chaos and turmoil.
In short, I still pray that this conflict can end soon , peace can be restored, and the world can get back on track.
