Author: Qiu Chongwei (Researcher at Womin Gaoke Ward Research Institute)
On the surface, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine was ignited by Putin signing a special military operation against Ukraine, but in fact, it was carefully designed and manufactured by the Americans. . Although the conflict between Russia and Ukraine started as the Americans wanted, it did not completely develop in the direction they wanted. It can be said that what the United States gained was less than what it lost, and it even caused greater trouble for itself.
1. Regarding the calculations of the Americans
On the issue of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Americans' calculations are very clear. They can be summarized as "three steps". The first step is to give temptation and create conflicts; the second step is Continuously ignite the fire and engage in proxy wars; the third step is to clean up the stall and reap the benefits.
The so-called "temptation" is to use the bait of supporting Ukraine to join NATO and EU to lure Zelensky completely into the arms of the United States and the West, so that Ukraine can feel that its security is guaranteed by joining NATO. Russia does not dare to fight against it. If it joins the EU, there will be economic hope and Ukraine can live a rich life. For an actor like Zelensky, who has no political foresight or strategic insight and recognizes his father when he sees food, the temptation is quite great. In the end, he became a puppet and puppet of the Americans.
The so-called "fire" means that after the relationship between Ukraine and Russia broke down, they continued to add fuel to the flames of the conflict, describing Russia as an aggressive country, and even described Putin as a "butcher", constantly increasing sanctions on Russia, and at the same time constantly increasing the number of sanctions against Russia. He ignited Zelensky, made him a hero against Russia, and made a verbal promise that as long as Ukraine resists Russia, it will give money if it wants money and guns if it wants guns. This makes Ukraine feel that with the support of the United States and the European Union With help, Russia can be defeated.
The so-called "gaining benefits" is to turn the Russia-Ukraine conflict into a quagmire of war. Russia has been completely isolated and weakened. From then on, it has lost a strong resistance to the United States. Funds from all over the world have flowed into the United States, helping the United States to once again carry out financial controls on the world. For the sake of security, European countries unite again and become the younger brothers of the United States. Of course, after weakening Russia, the United States can better move its resources and energy to the West Pacific to deal with China, which is rapidly becoming stronger.
This shows how sinister the purpose of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict designed by the Americans is. However, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been going on for more than four months, and tough guy Putin has not let the Americans' plans succeed.
2. Biden’s three miscalculations of
The first point is that Putin has not been defeated and Russia has not been weakened.
By creating a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it draws Russia into the war, and by supporting the opposition in Russia, creating chaos, and then subverting Putin's regime and further weakening Russia. This is the main attempt of the United States to provoke the conflict between Russia and Ukraine this time. However, the result was not what Americans wanted at all.
Since Russia took special military action against Ukraine, Putin's resolute, resolute, wise and responsible image has been fully demonstrated. His domestic support rate once rose to 90%, which shows that his leadership position has been further consolidated. Furthermore, since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Russian people have also shown strong unity. Whether it is Medvedev and other high-level officials, or the people consciously knelt in front of the officers and soldiers who sacrificed on the battlefield, all of this shows that Russia has shown strong unity when dealing with foreign enemies. Unity against the same enemy. This kind of power is enough to make the whole world feel the combat effectiveness of Russian nation .
Obviously, Biden miscalculated in trying to defeat Russia and defeat Putin through the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The second point is that oil has not become a weapon for Americans, and the world's money has not flowed into the United States.
The Americans wanted to start an energy war with Russia through the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but they made a mistake from the beginning.
The first mistake is . The mistake is that once the United States exerts pressure, other countries will not dare to buy Russian oil, resulting in Russian oil being unable to be sold and becoming a waste of oil. However, Russia can easily resolve this problem through ruble settlement and discounted sales.European countries are still buying Russian oil, and India is increasing its efforts to buy Russian oil. We are also buying Russian oil. It can be said that Russian oil is selling better and better now. By selling oil, Russia will have money, and with money, Russia will have a strong backbone.
The second mistake was in thinking that American partners would increase production to fill the Russian oil market. A video circulated a few days ago, in which French President Macron grabbed Biden and made a wisecrack. It was said that Macron called the United Arab Emirates in accordance with Biden's request and asked the other party to increase production. The other party replied that it has been Production is at saturation. The implication is that production cannot be increased. Macron also said that he had called and Saudi , and the other party also said that they could not increase production. This shows that these major oil-producing countries no longer listen to the words of the Americans and are used as cheap weapons by the Americans. The trouble now is that even the price of oil in the United States has skyrocketed, which has caused high domestic inflation and further inflated the "bubble" in the United States.
The third mistake is that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with the increase in interest rates, can attract money from all over the world to the United States. Judging from the current situation, the American abacus has not been implemented. The United States wants to build a strong dollar by raising interest rates in and to attract the return of dollars from around the world. However, the domestic inflation rate in the United States is too high, nearly the highest in 20 years. Adding such a small amount of interest will not be able to offset the inflation rate. Capital is profit-seeking. If there is no money to be made if it flows back to the United States, then it will definitely not go there.
The third point is to disrupt China’s rhythm and adjust more resources from the West to the East to deal with China with all its strength.
Regarding this point, we can ask ourselves based on what we see and think, has the process of our revival been disrupted? Are our emotions so irritated that we lose our composure? Can the United States divert strategic resources from Europe to the East? Have other countries sincerely followed the United States and fought against China regardless of national interests, economic interests, and business profits?
did not create the situation that the United States wanted, so don’t be surprised by the United States. We should be like Chairman Mao, sitting firmly on the Diaoyutai, regardless of wind and rain. Of course, to be more precise, we should attach great importance to strategically and despise tactically.
3. What should we see clearly from this?
There are three main points:
First, from a strategic point of view, the United States wants to withdraw from Europe and free up more resources to deal with China in the Western Pacific, which is difficult for Americans to do. This conflict between Russia and Ukraine shows Russia’s tenacity and it is difficult for the United States to defeat and weaken Russia. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia will only become more cautious and tighter in taking precautions against NATO, the European Union, and the United States. This also means that Russia will still contain the United States’ important energy in the European direction. Although the United States currently threatens to go all-out eastward to deal with China, this is more of a threat to build momentum and act as a powerful external force. Because its ambitions for global hegemony are too high and bad, its strategic resources cannot support it to deal with the two most powerful forces in two strategic directions at the same time. A great country.
Secondly, from a game point of view, maintaining strategic determination and strategic patience, and accelerating to make ourselves stronger is the long-term solution and the fundamental way. Just imagine how wise Chairman Mao was to insist on independence and build his own complete industrial system and national defense system even under difficult circumstances. Furthermore, now we must speed up the construction and strengthening of domestic and foreign markets, especially the domestic market. How far-sighted it is to maintain strategic concerns and how important it is. In the coming period, we must not let the United States disrupt its strategic rhythm, be intimidated by it, anger it, or be "fooled" by it.
Third, in terms of means, having strong military strength is the most reliable foundation. In this Russia-Ukraine conflict, if Russia cannot strategically deter the United States and NATO from sending troops, the consequences will be unimaginable. If the Russian army cannot suppress the Ukrainian army on the battlefield, there will be more foreign mercenaries. As swarms in, more countries will directly send troops to the Ukrainian battlefield, and more Western advanced weapons and equipment will enter the Ukrainian battlefield.
Therefore, can only win on the battlefield. Let’s talk about political games and diplomatic struggles. Otherwise, everything else is nonsense!
