When we summarize the recent trends in the international situation, we will find that a fact is taking shape. The focus of the United States' strategic layout is shifting from war-torn Eastern Europe to East Asia. A large network tailor-made for China is quietly spreading in East Asia, and China has become the United States. The just-concluded G7 summit and NATO summit have fully confirmed this trend.
The United States leads the West to disrupt the stability of East Asia, and Japan adds fuel to the flames. In China's grand chess game, the United States and Japan are both allies and rivals, playing out a game within a game in East Asia.
The United States has obviously relaxed its constraints on Japan. In the words of the US president himself, it is to allow Japan, the so-called ally of the United States, to play a greater role in the region. The intention of the United States is very clear, which is to let Japan serve as a human shield for the United States on the frontier in East Asia, because in the eyes of the United States, Japan is more valuable than any other Asia-Pacific country in dealing with China. The United States values Japan's economic influence more than its geographical and military role.
Why do you say this? Geographically, the Japanese archipelago has become a typical deathbed for military strategists. The characteristics of the island country destined Japan to lack strategic depth and have serious external dependence. This has been reflected in the World War II period when the United States blocked Japan and Japan took the risk to launch the Pacific War This can be fully demonstrated in risky decisions. Such a predicament is even worse today, especially after neighboring countries have increasingly powerful medium and long-range strike capabilities. Therefore, Japan has been emphasizing in the past two years that it must be able to attack enemy bases. Ability is precisely based on this consideration.
In terms of military affairs, the United States understands that Japan’s modest military power cannot change the direction of the overall situation. This has been basically determined since the day of the island purchase farce in 2012, because in this storm, Japan ended in a disastrous defeat and lost Obtained actual control over Diaoyu Island and its affiliated islands. Given that the opponent has an obvious advantage in medium and long-range strikes without depth, the base group in Japan has become a living target. To this end, the US military has to develop the concept of distributed operations in the Navy and the concept of agile operations in the Air Force, just to improve its wartime survivability.
It can be seen from this that the Japanese archipelago is a dead end regardless of offense or defense. But Japan's economy is a wonderful card for the United States. Japan's economic influence is still very large in the region. It is a member of the China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Area, RCEP, the leading country in the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, and an initial member of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. We can see that Japan is present in almost all economic frameworks in the Asia-Pacific region, and Japan also plays an important role.
The reason why Japan has such influence in the regional economy is mainly due to Japan’s good economic size. Japan’s GDP total is about 5 trillion US dollars. In the Asia-Pacific region, China, the world’s second largest economy, Japan The economy is larger than the ten ASEAN countries plus South Korea, which establishes Japan's influence in the regional economy. In the past, Japan used economic influence to enhance its influence in the region, using the economy as a traction to continuously develop and deepen the close relationship between the Japanese economy and regional economies. This is something that the United States cannot do anyway.
This plays a very prominent role in the United States' strategic layout in dividing China's economic influence. After all, the United States also knows that for the current China, the Chinese economy is China's greatest advantage. This is also the biggest problem of the United States. It is true that the United States cannot afford to spend much money now, but it does not have money in its pockets, which has led to the unsatisfactory results of the diplomatic offensive launched by the United States in Southeast Asia.
Japan just fills in the weakness of the United States in the economic field. It is much easier for Japan to take the lead in spending than the United States itself. What Japan wants is influence, while the United States wants to use Japan's money bag to divide China. The influence brought by the economy, the United States talks, Japan pays, each gets what it needs, and everyone is happy.
The main reason why Japan is willing to become a pawn of the United States and tie itself to the chariot of great power competition with the United States is that Japan believes that the current great power competition provoked by the United States is Japan's last chance to seek national normalization. In addition, Japan is also suspected of killing people with a borrowed knife, and wants to use the knife of the United States to once and for all eradicate China, Japan's biggest geographical obstacle. Japan knows very well that Japan alone cannot shake China no matter what. There is no one else in the world who can shake China except the United States.
Japan knows very well that the main reason why it is under control today is the presence of the US military stationed in Japan. Even Japan's peace constitution was formulated by the United States MacArthur . Therefore, if Japan wants to normalize its country, the United States cannot overcome this hurdle. In other words, if Japan wants to normalize its country, it must get relief from the United States. This is one aspect.
On the other hand, due to historical reasons, East Asian countries including China will never easily normalize Japan, a country that has committed numerous crimes. An increasingly powerful China has become the deepest pain in Japan's heart. A powerful China makes Japan dispensable in the region. More importantly, Japan will never be able to get ahead. This is Japan's response to China driven by right-wing forces. The core reason for the growing malice.
Compared with China, it is easier for the United States to accept Japan's national normalization. In other words, the United States would rather see a Japan that has achieved normalcy and exerts a certain influence in the region than to see the rise of a China that is likely to endanger the hegemony of the United States. After all, as long as the U.S. troops stationed in Japan do not withdraw for a day, Japan will still be in a Under the supervision of the United States, this is the fundamental bargaining chip for the United States’ strategic blackmail against Japan.
China's rapid development has completely shattered Japan's modern sense of psychological achievement towards China. Everything turned around in 2010, when China's economy surpassed Japan's and became the world's second largest economy. Therefore, Japan took advantage of the United States' strategic adjustment to return to the Asia-Pacific and launched the island purchase farce in 2012. In this multi-year competition, Japan not only lost actual control of the Diaoyu Islands and its affiliated islands, but also suffered a complete military defeat. Since then, the balance of Japanese military power has completely shifted to China's side.
The ultimate outcome is that it cannot compare with China economically, cannot defeat China militarily, and cannot compare with China in terms of regional influence. Since then, Japan, a country that wants to replace China and become a major power in East Asia, has suffered far more disappointment than confidence. What reason does Japan have to live? After several years of hibernation and respite, Japan officially made a choice in 2020, betting all its wealth to put all Japan's eggs in the American basket.
The United States wants Japan to serve as a human shield on the frontier of East Asia and use Japan to divide China's increasingly prominent influence; Japan, on the other hand, is betting all its wealth and wants to use the knife of the United States to eliminate China, the biggest obstacle to Japan's ambitions. The strategic intentions of both the United States and Japan have placed each other in an extremely dangerous situation. The two allies of the United States and Japan are playing a mutual trap in East Asia, with China as the chessboard.
wants to use China as a chessboard, but the appetites of the United States and Japan are a bit too big. How can China counterattack and win? Here we need to treat the United States and Japan separately. We need to emphasize an objective law. The strategic competition between China and the United States is a protracted war, because the strength of China and the United States means that neither country can defeat the other in a short period of time. We must clearly understand this. .
The United States is a giant, but Japan is different. Yesterday Putin signed a new decree, which made the Japanese very nervous. how did this happen? After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, Japan followed the West in imposing sanctions on Russia, while on the other hand it was unwilling to give up its energy cooperation with Russia. The new decree signed by Putin may force two Japanese companies involved in the "Sakhalin 2" to withdraw from the Russian-Japanese natural gas project. Japan has begun to worry that once the Russian-Japanese natural gas project is terminated, it may push up Japan's natural gas and electricity prices.
Japan is unwilling to give up energy cooperation with Russia, and it is also unwilling to give up economic cooperation with China. This is a trick that Japan has been playing. Japan is willing to stand up to China politically, militarily, and diplomatically, but it always downplays it. impact on the economy. This curse must be broken, and the Japanese cannot be allowed to eat China's food and smash China's pot. Australia is a lesson learned from the past. The effect of our heavy punch is still very good. Compared with the military beating of Japan, our economic increase can keep Japan's mind clear.
If China wants to break the situation, it must carry out a strategic ranking between the United States and Japan. The United States is in a protracted war, so we can rank it after Japan and give priority to Japan, the perpetrator who is ready to move. Just like 10 years ago, Let Japan once again have to enter the dormant period, and the right way is to shoot the first bird. Only if Japan falls first, the network deployed by the United States around China will be severely damaged, because the location of the Japanese chess piece by the United States is too critical and is an important node.
