The Russia-Ukraine war has reached a watershed now. How will the United States-led NATO intervene in this war? Everything is still unknown.
Not long ago, Lithuania unilaterally announced that it would block Russia's enclave Kaliningrad on the border between Lithuania and Poland . This means that Lithuania may cut off the land transportation channel from Belarus to Kaliningrad.
Kaliningrad has an important strategic position and can be called the bridgehead of Russia's nuclear deterrence against Western European major powers.
In this land of less than 20,000 square kilometers, Russia deploys S400 air defense systems, Iskander short-range missiles that can carry nuclear warheads , T90 tanks , tornado rocket launchers and tens of thousands of troops.
It is no exaggeration to say that this is a military fortress. Now Lithuania is trying to block Kaliningrad. For Russia, it is tantamount to breaking the strategic balance.
Russia is far inferior to NATO in terms of comprehensive national strength. Judging from the deployment of conventional weapons, NATO has almost surrounded Russia on several levels. Therefore, unless Russia deploys its nuclear forces, it will be difficult to form a direct deterrent against Western European countries.
The enclave of Kaliningrad is an important part of Russia's strategic deterrence against Poland, Lithuania, and even Western European powers.
Obviously, as long as Kaliningrad is still in the hands of Russia, neither Poland and Lithuania in Eastern Europe nor France and Germany in Western Europe will dare to easily intervene in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, because Kaliningrad has the ability to A strategic force that poses a threat to their homeland.
Lithuania's blockade of Kaliningrad is intended to weaken Russia's threat to them and enhance NATO's threat to Russia. Once this balance is broken, the strategic deterrence forces of both sides will be unbalanced.
Of course, Russia cannot allow this to happen, so recently Putin announced that it will assist Belarus in deploying "Iskander-M" missiles . This missiles can carry both conventional warheads and nuclear warheads.
In fact, this is to remind NATO and the United States that the enclave of Kaliningrad is an important pillar in the strategic balance between Russia and NATO. Any attempt to make a fuss about Kaliningrad is an attempt to undermine this balance, and Russia may counterattack with a more violent attitude.
On the other hand, although Lithuania usually jumps around repeatedly, it is impossible for them not to know the important position of Kaliningrad to Russia. During the Crimean crisis in 2014, the Russian military publicly stated that any attempt to attack Kaliningrad would be regarded as a "declaration of war" by Russia.
Therefore, even if the United States has deployed 200 nuclear warheads in NATO countries, and has also dispatched fighter planes with tactical nuclear weapons to patrol the Belarusian border, this will not scare Russia.
Since it is impossible for Lithuania not to know the sensitivity of Kaliningrad, but still try to block Kaliningrad, then there is only one possible reason, and that is that someone is secretly supporting it and wants to use Kaliningrad to test Russia's reaction .
Frankly speaking, the situation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become obvious by now. If NATO does not directly intervene in the war, but supports Ukraine in the fight through military assistance, then Ukraine's defeat is almost inevitable.
If NATO wants to win this war, it can only do it itself, or let certain countries in NATO support Ukraine. But in this case, they can't guess what Russia will choose.
Therefore, a small country like Lithuania made moves to block Kaliningrad in order to threaten and test Russia. Let’s see if Russia has the preparation and courage to expand the war.
Putin obviously saw this temptation, so he directly discussed with the President of Belarus and deployed heavy missiles that can carry nuclear warheads in Belarus.Two days ago, Ukraine directly released news, saying that Belarus launched more than 20 rockets towards Ukraine.
Russia's meaning is very obvious. If NATO wants to expand the war, then Russia will definitely accompany it to the end, and it will definitely take action before NATO. From the perspective of , the EU, and Russia, they actually do not want the war to continue or expand, but the United States and Ukraine have forced themselves into a corner.
The President of Ukraine preaches every day that he will never surrender. Once he shows his attitude of ceding territory and accepting defeat, the halo that surrounds him will disappear. He is likely to fall from the position of president and become a part of Ukrainian history Negative description.
The United States has invested so much energy in order to take advantage of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to bring Russia down. In the end, Russia was fine, which of course hurt the international prestige of the United States. More importantly, Biden is in trouble. During his term, Afghanistan has been evacuated in a collapse manner. If Ukraine is completely defeated again, it will really lose the hearts of the people.
