Recently, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense news, the Russian military troops completed their combat mission on the famous Russian-occupied Snake Island off the coast of Odessa and evacuated Snake Island that morning. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Russian army's withdrawal from Snake Island was mainly to "release goodwill" to Ukraine and facilitate Ukraine's food exports.
After the news came out that the Russian troops had withdrawn from Snake Island, Ukraine was abuzz. It was immediately hyped as another major victory in the "Anti-Russian War". The Ministry of National Defense and the General Staff of Ukraine simultaneously announced that they would consider sending troops to recover Snake Island. Island and re-establish a military base on Snake Island.
So, how do we evaluate the withdrawal of Russian troops from Snake Island? Is the withdrawal of Russian troops from Snake Island really to show goodwill to Ukraine and even facilitate Ukraine’s food exports? Well, let’s describe this statement in two words: Weird. After all, when the Russian troops withdrew from the vicinity of Kiev at the end of March, they used the same rhetoric. They said that in order to create a good atmosphere for Russia and Ukraine to reach an agreement, the Russian troops decided to de-escalate the conflict and evacuate from the vicinity of Kiev. In fact, this has nothing to do with the goodwill of the Russian army or the de-escalation of the conflict. It’s just that the spring mud season in Ukraine is coming. The Russian army is struggling to maintain supply lines around Kiev and is always attacked by Ukrainian special forces. Simply I just can't stay any longer.
The withdrawal of Russian troops from Snake Island this time is the same as the withdrawal of Russian troops from around Kiev at the end of March. In fact, the Russian army fought well on Snake Island from March to June. It repeatedly frustrated the Ukrainian army's counterattacks against Snake Island, allowing a deputy commander of the naval aviation and a naval aviation brigade commander of the Ukrainian army to There are also many special forces from the Special Warfare Center folded above.
However, as the Ukrainian army received the NATO artillery in June, the situation on Snake Island began to become increasingly serious. Previous attacks by the Ukrainian army on Snake Island were led by ballistic missiles and long-range rocket launchers. These equipment The Ukrainian army itself does not have much, so it has to save one shot at a time. It is impossible to open its belly to greet the Snake Island. Therefore, it is relatively easy for the Russian army to counterattack these missiles, and long-range rockets. But when the Ukrainian army counterattacked on Snake Island on June 20, the situation changed: the Ukrainian army pulled up two platoons of M777 artillery and pulled it to the Kubansky sandbank 36 kilometers away from Snake Island. Two artillery positions were established on the sandbar.
In this way, when the Ukrainian army uses the M795E1 155mm grenade, it can directly hit Snake Island on the coast of Odessa with the M777 howitzer . At that time, the Russian army also discovered this situation and quickly counterattacked. It sent aviation troops to blow up four M777 artillery pieces. This was an initial defeat of the Ukrainian army's counterattack and did not cause too much damage to the Shedao garrison. However, the battlefield situation has changed.
Before the Ukrainian army did not have the howitzer that could hit Shedao, the Ukrainian army could threaten the firepower of Shedao. It only had tactical missiles, and long-range fire. These equipment could only be used sparingly. The threat was not too great, but the loss was It's controllable; but now that the Ukrainian army has obtained artillery that can hit Snake Island, this matter is serious. Artillery shells are different from missiles. Missiles have to be carefully budgeted. Don’t be careful with artillery shells in any case. Just use them. The Ukrainian army can use artillery to fire at Snake Island anytime and anywhere if it wants to. If this situation continues, it will be okay. It is tantamount to snakes. Russian troops on the island may be attacked by artillery fire at any time.
In this case, the cost of the Ukrainian army threatening Snake Island suddenly decreased and its efficiency increased rapidly. However, the cost of the Russian army's defense of Snake Island began to increase, and the cost-effectiveness was seriously disproportionate. Therefore, in this case, the Russian army evacuated Snake Island. The island becomes a purely rational choice, which is also a stop loss in a sense.
So, since the Russian army has now abandoned Snake Island, what tactical losses have been suffered to the Russian army, and what gains can the Ukrainian army gain? Let’s talk about the losses of the Russian army first. In fact, from our point of view, whether Snake Island is lost or not, from a military perspective, there is almost no loss to the Russian army.
After all, Snake Island is just a small island of 0.2 square kilometers. There is no large pier, only a small pier that can park speedboats, no airport, and only a few helicopters can operate. At that time, after the Russian army captured Snake Island, many people were speculating that the Russian army might use Snake Island as a springboard to conduct an amphibious landing in Odessa. In fact, the size and support capabilities of Snake Island were not worth mentioning in the cold weapon era. It's still a good springboard, but in modern warfare, it's far from a true springboard for amphibious landings.
Amphibious landings are not used, and some people say that Snake Island can be used to block the coast of Odessa. In fact, we are not looking down on Maozi. If Maozi plans to use Snake Island to block the coast of Odessa, it only shows that he does not know how to play the navy. . Look at how the U.S. Navy blocks the coast. Isn't it always deploying fleets in the Cosco Sea, dispatching helicopters to inspect the route, and directly detaining people and ships? When did it have to block the coast with a small island? Therefore, it is too specious to say that the Russian army can use Snake Island to block the Ukrainian coast, especially the Russian army on Snake Island. Later, there was only a company from the Black Sea Fleet Reconnaissance Station, with some light weapons , and the company was heavy There are no weapons, and the only thing above is a variety of anti-aircraft weapons. Snake Island can't even block the Odessa coast, and can't even report the activities of ships on the Odessa coast.
Therefore, now that the Russian army has abandoned Snake Island, to a certain extent, there is actually no loss. On the contrary, precious air defense weapons and manpower will not be left on Snake Island and bombarded by Ukrainian artillery fire every day. Of course, losing the place that was previously occupied will definitely not look good in terms of face, but wars are never fought for face. Those who really want to fight for face, such as the Ukrainian army in Severodonetsk, are now dead in an ugly way. .
The Russian army has withdrawn, but what about the Ukrainian army? In fact, Snake Island is not of much use to the Ukrainian army. This can be seen from the fact that when the war broke out, the Ukrainian army only had more than 80 soldiers from the Border Guard Bureau on Snake Island. If Snake Island is not of much use to Ukraine, It's really extremely important, so the Uzbek Army wouldn't put so many people on it. However, Ukraine's face is still very important. After all, it was the first island that Ukraine lost in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Moreover, the Ukrainian army fought around this island several times, killing so many people. Now the Russian army has withdrawn on its own initiative. At least it was a sign of weakness, and the Ukrainian army could regain its face.
Of course, we vaguely feel that if the Ukrainian army goes to the island again for the sake of face, they may have to be taught how to behave. After all, anyone who goes to Snake Island will be bombed. When the Russian army is there, the Ukrainian army can use howitzers to bomb it. , if the Ukrainian army goes up, then it is estimated that the Russian army can directly launch Iskander missiles from Crimea to explode. This lethality is much more powerful than the howitzer. I am afraid that many people will be killed if the Ukrainian army goes to the island. Take away in one wave. Therefore, the Ukrainian army currently has some doubts about returning to Snake Island. It only said that it would consider sending troops to return to Snake Island. This shows that the Russian army may be playing tricks on Snake Island. Of course, we have some doubts. Considering the virtues of President Ozawa and the NATO military advisers behind him, I am afraid that they have already moved their index fingers. As long as they can send troops to take a few selfies to confirm that the Ukrainian army has really returned to Snake Island, this goal will be achieved. Well, as for whether these soldiers will be hit by missiles later, it is not within the scope of these people's consideration.
As for Ukraine’s grain exports... that’s even more ridiculous. Currently, the biggest threat to Ukraine’s grain exports through Odessa is none other than the mine that the Ukrainian army threw into the sea and has caused several casualties. It has nothing to do with Snake Island. If Ukraine wants to export food, it is better to clear the mines on its own coast first.
