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is less than three weeks away from the midterm election on November 8 this year. At present, the only three states that decide the Senate belonging to Nevada , Penin and Georgia . Last time we have talked about Nevada 's election (portal: 
Penin in 2016 chose Trump , but in 2020 Biden took back Pennsylvania as a fellow villager. As a huge state, Pennsylvania has become the most important in the east in recent years.
Penin Current Republican Hong Kong Pat Toomey decided to retire , making this seat an open competition this year. The Republican Party sent out TV celebrity Dr. Mehmet Oz, and the Democratic Party candidate was Pennsylvania lieutenant governor John Fetterman.
Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz (left) VS Democratic Party John Fetterman (right)
Before this summer, John Fetterman's lead was as high as 2 percentage points , and everyone felt Dr. OZ is finished. The result is contrary to the national election situation. After Fetterman's stroke in May, the election activities were in the semi-stagnant state. After a summer, the Democratic Party's leading advantage began to shrink.
The gap between the two people's tune is narrowing
At the same time, with the primary election results released, Republican voters who support other candidates voted Oz, and his momentum finally improved. Now the Democratic Party's advantage is only 5 percentage points left, and this showdown has suspense again.
01 Image contrast
John Fetterman is 53 years old, with a wealthy family, and is from a wealthy family. He worked as mayor in a small town outside Pittsburgh for 13 years, and then became the deputy governor of at the age of 49.
Dr. Oz is 62 years old and was originally a cardiac surgeon. Later, he became a nationally renowned TV show host. His program Dr. Oz Show is a medical talk show that has been broadcast for 13 years, 13 seasons and 1681 episodes.
Oz and his TV show Dr. Oz Show
is obvious, the image of the two candidates forms a sharp contrast between .
John Fetterman has a burly figure, a bald tattoo, and always wears casual clothes (Trump mocks Fetterman for never wearing formal clothes, always looking dirty and sweaty).
even the deputy governor's makeup photo does not even have suits and tie
This makes him not look like a traditional politician, and this image also makes him red-necked in the working class and rural areas voters have won a lot of favorable impressions. But many conservatives think that Fetterman's image is like a violent man who often takes drugs.
Oz's more elite image is still attractive to some wealthy communities outside Philadelphia . His exquisite and decent 's intellectual elite image is like a country club with identity that conservatives like (Country Club) members. However, because it is too elite, Oz will lose some of the Republican traditional rural votes.
Country Club Style
This election battle has been fought until now. The more you fight, the dirty the more you fight , the dirtier the . Both sides poured dirty water on each other, causing the two people to to have a tiny . Voters can only choose a less annoying person among the two people who hate them.
Both people hate more than they like
02 Oz's problem
A Airborne election
Oz's biggest weakness is that local attributes are weak , and the connection with voters in Pennsylvania is very weak.Because of its wealth, Oz has real estate all over the United States and even around the world (Türkiye). Because I work in Manhattan , my permanent residence has been in a luxury home in Cliffside Park, New Jersey, across the Hudson River . It was not until that I moved to Pennsylvania in 2020.
Oz "Castle" mansion in New Jersey
Pennsylvania voters have a strong hometown complex and a sense of belonging and honor, and like to support fellow villagers. They naturally have no good feelings for Oz, who almost landed in Pennsylvania for election. They think he is just an political speculator and did not stand up for the interests of the people in Pennsylvania.
B Internal integration
Oz Polls have always been behind lies in the fierce competition in the Republican primary election. Because there are no particularly outstanding candidates, the Republican primary election is very crowded, with as many as 7 people entering the final primary election vote.
Oz and Bridgewater Fund CEO David McCormick were in a difficult position. Finally, with the support of Trump , Oz won with a slight advantage of 966 votes.
The crowded Republican primary election
Because the winning advantage is too small, Oz's qualifying seems a bit difficult to convince the public , and it is also very difficult to integrate the party's forces. But as the primary election passes and voting days get closer, most conservatives who support other Republican candidates are gradually giving up their grudges. Oz's poll began to stabilize and rebound.
03 Fetterman's problem
A Weakness to crime
In the past few months, the main reason for the Democratic leadership has greatly reduced its leading position in the past few months is that the Republican Party has finally grasped one of Fetterman's major weaknesses - the problem of weak to crime .
Fetterman was the chairman of the Pennsylvania Pardons, and pardoned a large number of criminals . The Republicans spent millions of dollars on ad attacks on Fetterman condoning crimes, releasing a large number of dangerous elements to cause a public security crisis in . Fetterman's image has taken a sharp turn for the worse since then.
Republican's ad attack on Fetterman
B Too radical
Crime issues have tear up a gap in the front line for the Republican Party, and what follows is a series of concerns and doubts about Fetterman being too far left.
Fetterman supports universal health insurance, supports increasing the number of refugees received in the United States, and supports unconditional and unrestricted abortion rights. These claims actually seem a bit too radical for many middle-aged voters in Pennsylvania or moderate Democratic voters.
Republicans criticized Fetterman's extreme left policy proposition
polls show that people who have a good impression of Fetterman are basically stable at more than 40%, but the proportion of people who have no good impression has risen from 36% in June to 46%.
C Health problems
Another big risk faced by Fetterman is Health problems .
Fetterman suddenly hit the wind before the preliminary election in May this year. Although the stroke was not serious and recovered quickly, it still had an impact on the election. The opportunities for gatherings and meeting voters were greatly reduced. The public speech was very brief and he had never presided over a press conference.
Fetterman also had a pacemaker after a stroke
stroke still had a little impact on Fetterman's speech, and sometimes it seemed inconsistent and not fluent enough. Listening comprehension There are also some obstacles on it. When asked verbal questions, you still need to rely on live subtitles to fully understand.
Fetterman rarely accepted a one-on-one interview with NBC
In the interview, Fetterman needed to rely on the on-screen subtitle system to assist in understanding the reporter's questions
, which made many voters begin to doubt whether Fetterman has enough ability, physical energy, and energy to deal with the heavy senator work.A Fox News poll at the end of September showed that 52% of Pennsylvania voters expressed varying degrees of concern about Fetterman's health, while 43% were not worried at all.
, together with the current Pennsylvania Senator Robert Casey, was unable to determine whether Fetterman could restore his listening comprehension when the new Congress took office in January next year.
Casey has always been supporting Fetterman
, but Fetterman takes advantage of the situation and plays the iron man tender card , building himself a fighter who bravely fights diseases, hoping to use diseases to get voters' sympathy for .
Democratic voters are easily moved by Fetterman's "inspirational" story of "disabled body and strong will".
Oz is always chasing Fetterman's health problems. Oz released three physical examination reports in 2014, 2018, 2022, proving that he is very healthy and can fully perform his duties and perform his . At the same time, he asked Fetterman to publish his physical examination report.
Oz released its own health report
, even the left-leaning , the Washington Post also called on Fetterman to release the physical examination report, saying that the senator signed with voters 6 years of service for about , and voters have the right to know whether the candidate has enough ability to perform his duties within 6 years. Previously, both Trump and Biden have released their physical examination reports, and so should Fetterman.
Fetterman has not responded for a long time, which has caused the Republican Party to attack him as he is hiding something.
Republicans edited the ghost video of Fetterman in public "incoherent and unconscious"
has rational voters' recognition. Although it cannot attack a sick person from a moral level, considering such an important position of the federal senator, if Fetterman really has no clear mind, can't understand, and can't speak clearly, he was finally elected, wouldn't it be , slim and the fate of the country and state is a joke?
Many people say: There is already a president of "alergic disease" in the United States, and it is no big deal to have an extra senator
In addition, Fetterman has always been unwilling to have a one-on-one debate with Oz, and is still a little worried that the stroke will affect his mind and eloquence, and will be suppressed by Oz6, which was originally on TV every day. If there is a catastrophic performance, all previous efforts will be wasted.
But Fetterman's camp believes that it is likely to be a big thunder if it always avoids doubts about health issues. Under pressure, Fetterman finally released the UPMC medical report on October 19, proving that his health recovery will not affect his performance of public duties.
As for the debate, Fetterman had to go out to face the battle and decided to only participate in one TV debate with Oz, and the time is scheduled for October 25. Fetterman is allowed to use the subtitle system to assist in hearing comprehension in the debate.
This debate is worthy of attention and may become the turning point of the election
Oz has been ready to beat Fetterman with the debate. Since Fetterman himself said that his health is not a problem, Oz doesn't have to be bound, and there is no need to worry that people accuse him of "not being virtuous" to attack a person who is "seriously ill". He can let go of his hands and feet to attack Fetterman's extreme left policy issues with all his strength.
Finally, the Fetterman base is in urban voters, female voters over 50 years old and highly educated voters. Supporters of
Oz are concentrated in rural voters, men over 50 and voters without diplomas in higher education.
The focus of the two sides' competition is on three types of people: Suburban voters, neutral voters and Latino voters .
Female voters in the suburbs are easily taken by the Democrats with the abortion card , but the Republicans are using crimes and security card to compete for this group of voters. The current observation is that Fetterman performs better among suburban voters.
Neutral voters in Pennsylvania account for 13% of registered voters. They are more sensitive to economic conditions such as prices and oil prices, so they are more inclined to the Republican Party who is good at engaging in the economy. Although Latino voters account for only 6-8%, they are no longer hardcore Democrats, but tend to be poached by the Republican Party. The latest comprehensive poll of
RCP, Fetterman currently leads by only 3.2 percentage points .
The gap between the two sides is basically within the poll error range , and a considerable number of voters have not made up their minds. So whether it is the stroke of Fetterman who was elected to the Senate while lying down, or is it the shocking reversal of Oz " not talk about martial ethics "? We will wait and see the midterm election voting day.
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