[Text/Observer Network Xiong Chaoran Editor/Xu Lei]
There are still 5 months left before the November US midterm elections, and the primary elections in various states have already smoke.
With the North Carolina , Nevada , North Dakota and Maine , the primary elections of the midterm elections started on June 14 local time, the primary election schedule for the midterm elections has almost half, and this primary election battle has also entered a critical moment.
Comprehensive reports from the US "politico" news network (politico), " New York Times ", Reuters and other media reports that on the 14th, Tom Rice, a veteran federal representative who has been re-elected for five terms, lost in the primary election of South Carolina on the 14th. The challenger to defeat him was Russell Fry, who was supported by Trump . The defeated Rice was one of the 10 Republican Representatives who voted to impeach Trump after the "Capital Hill Riots on January 6". Trump had previously vowed to "retaliate".
In addition, the Maine governor showdown is considered a "rehearsal" for the possible reconciliation of Trump and Biden in 2024; the key swing state of Nevada, the Republicans achieved a certain degree of victory; in the Texas by-election held on the same day, the southern Latino settlements in the state also showed signs of turning to the right.
This is a night to test Trump's power and right-wing anti-establishment enthusiasm, but for Biden, who has hit a new low in polls, and Democrats, who are holding a congressional riot hearing in Washington , these signs in the primary election cast a strong shadow on their November election campaign.
Reuters report screenshot
The veteran lawmaker "exited" and supported the impeachment of Trump
Trump, who celebrated his 76th birthday on June 14, called on South Carolina voters to give him a "very, very beautiful birthday gift", that is, his "betrayer" Tom Rice and Nancy Mays both failed. In the end, despite the mixed results, Trump completed his first "revenge" in the primary election.
According to the New York Times, in the South Carolina federal representative primary election on the 14th, Trump-supported candidate Fry, the current state Representative of the state, easily defeated Tom Rice. Rice, who was re-elected for five terms in the federal House of Representatives, has been considered a Trump supporter, but voted to impeach Trump after the Capitol Hill riots last year, thus becoming the main party target Trump wants to retaliate in the midterm elections.
There were 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Trump at that time. Now, Rice is the first of these people to fail to re-election. However, since four of them have chosen to retire, the exit of Rice also means that is . Among the 10 people, at least half of will not return to Congress next year, and this number may also increase .
"Voters have expressed their opinion that Tom Rice is coming home soon. Today, Donald Trump won." Fry, who won the election, told supporters in South Carolina, a strong Republican constituency, told him that he would win the November election.
Previously, Fry said on his campaign website that the voting for the primary election was related to "betrayal". He wrote: "Tom Rice voted to impeach President Donald Trump, which failed the trust of the people in the constituency."
Rice (left) and Fry
However, Trump only got half of the "birthday gift" he wanted. In another constituency in , Trump wants to defeat , the current federal Rep. Nancy Mays (Nancy Mace) finally won the primary victory. It is worth noting that although Messe is a critic of Trump, she did not vote for the impeachment case. A South Carolina Republican familiar with the campaign of the two said: "He (Rice) voted for impeachment, but Mays did not."
In addition, the New York Times noted that in the South Carolina campaign, Rice was dismissive of Trump until the end, and Mays worked hard to win back the favor of Trump administration officials, if not Trump himself.
Until last week, Rice said in an interview with the New York Times that he did not regret impeachment of Trump: "I did that at that time, I will do it tomorrow, the day after tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. I have the responsibility to uphold the constitution, and that's what I did."
"Politician" News Network analyzed that if we want to see how much a Republican can compete with Trump, the result of this primary election in South Carolina seems to be obvious. In the 17 months since voting for the impeachment, Rice never gave up criticism of Trump, but he lost about a quarter of the vote in the constituency he fought for for years.
In addition, the most famous South Carolina man in the Trump administration at the time - former House Budget Director and Acting Chief of Staff of Mick Mulvaney, and Nikki Haley, who served as the UN ambassador - both publicly supported Metz.
analysis believes that Mays' re-election campaign has divided the Trump group to a certain extent.
Last week, Haley helped Metz (right) campaign Photo source: New York Times
Maine, Trump and Biden's "2024 preview"
For the midterm elections at the end of this year, Trump is appointing candidates he supports to fight in the party's primary election, and according to Trump and Biden's current statements on 2024, it is not impossible for them to face off again in the 2024 election. Maine, which held the gubernatorial election on the 14th, is considered the most suitable battlefield to provide "rehearsal opportunities" in 2024.
In this election, former Republican Governor Paul LePage once again challenged current Democratic Governor Janet Mills. LePeggy is a "Trump-like" politician. He also claimed to be "Trump before Trump became famous". He was widely criticized for making inflammatory remarks on a series of issues such as immigration, environment, abortion, and voting rights. Last time, he eventually left the position of governor of Maine with a support rate of less than 40%.
LePeggy (left) and Mills
Now, LePeggy is making a comeback. "Politician" News Network pointed out that although the current Governor Mills has a high public support rate in the local area, even higher than Biden, the current cost of living and the high inflation of has the same impact on the people of Maine as other people in the country. LePeggy criticized Mills for the economic situation, just as Trump criticized Biden.
Texas, the Democratic Party lost another seat
In a by-election held in Texas on the 14th, the Democratic Party's situation is not optimistic. On the evening of the 14th local time, Republican candidate Mayra Flores defeated Democrat Dan Sanchez and won the 34th congressional seat in the state's 34th congressional district vacated by former Democratic Representative Filemon Vela.
According to the old rules of the constituency, Flores will retain the seat by January next year. In November, she will face Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez to decide who represents the new 34th constituency.
Trump has achieved good results in southern Texas in the 2020 presidential election, so the Republicans have focused on the border areas and the southern areas. US media believe that this victory is not a lucky draw. Driven by Trump's popularity in the region, Southern Texas has "turned rightward" significantly in 2020.
It is worth noting that in Cameron County, where Flores won, Biden won the county by 13 percentage points in 2020, with nearly 90% of the county's population being Hispanic. There are signs that people are also starting to turn to the right in the Latino settlements in southern Texas.
"The Washington Post " believes that although the situation will be very different from now on November, winning such a seat that is inclined toward the Democratic Party - no matter how short it is - is a shot in the heart for the Republican Party, who is preparing for a major victory in November.
Key " swing state " Nevada
As a key "swing state", the New York Times believes that in the numerous unpredictable campaigns this fall, few states can match Nevada.There, Republicans saw the opportunity to oust a large number of Democrats, including the governor, lieutenant governor, three House Democrats, and Sen. Katherine Cortez Masto.
reported that in Nevada, Republican candidates are largely seeking to align with Trump, taking a tough right-wing stance on abortion, guns, immigration, and racial and gender education in schools.
In Nevada Governor's Republican primary, Trump-backed Joe Lombardo won the victory and will face Gov. Sisolak in November.
According to Edison Research's prediction, Jim Marchant, who echoed Trump and claimed that there was "election fraud" in the 2020 election, may win the Republican primary election for the Secretary of State in Nevada. He served as a Nedahua state legislator and was previously known for his advocacy of replacing paper ballots with electronic voting machines. Like Trump, he also blamed his defeat in 2020 for the federal Congress to so-called "election fraud."
The New York Times believes that Marconte is one of the most worrying Democrats in the state.
"Special Family Army" is mixed, Biden's poll hits a low
Reuters pointed out that the primary election results on the 14th will be regarded as a measure of Trump's continued influence on the Republican Party, because he has repeatedly hinted that he will compete for and White House again in 2024. So far, the candidates he supports have achieved mixed results in key states such as Ohio , Pennsylvania , Georgia and North Carolina .
In addition to South Carolina's Mess, Brian Kemp and Brad Raffensperge also beat Trump-backed challengers in Georgia, while some Republican federal representatives who voted to form the "January 6 Capitol Hill Riot Investigation" special committee also "survived" in their respective primary elections last week.
"Politician" News Network said that if people can learn from this year's primary election, it is "Trump is not invincible."
On May 25, Reuters pointed out in an opinion article that the influence exerted by Trump is continuing to influence the Republican Party. Although Trump-supported candidates are mixed in primary elections everywhere, more and more Republican candidates and voters are turning to " Trumpism " to win voters.
Data picture: Former US President Trump pictured from the other side of the Pengpai Image
. President Biden, who just announced that he would run for re-election in 2024, continued to decline under the pressure of soaring inflation. The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that Biden's public approval rating is now 39%, down for the third consecutive week, close to the lowest level during his presidency, with 56% of Americans disagreeing with Biden's performance in governing.
The outside world is generally expected that Republicans will win control of the House of Representatives and may also take control of the Senate in this midterm elections, which will pause Biden's legislative agenda and will give Republicans the right to launch various investigations that may cause harm to their opponents at the political level.
On June 10th local time, US President Biden delivered a speech on the current inflation issue at Los Angeles Port . Photo from Pengpai Image
The 2022 US midterm election will be re-elected from the House of Representatives, some senators and some governors. At the same time, this election is also regarded as voters rating the current President Biden's political achievements.
Specifically, the midterm elections have been re-elected for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, which are directly elected by voters. Representatives are elected according to the population ratio of each state, and their term of office is 2 years, but the constituencies will be redrawn according to the census every 10 years. This year's U.S. midterm elections will be the first election affected by redistricting after the 2020 U.S. census.
In the Senate, about one-third of the seats are also directly elected by voters. Senators will elect 2 people in each state for a term of 6 years. At least 34 senators will be elected in this midterm election.Both the House and the Senate will hold special elections to fill the vacancy depending on the specific circumstances (such as the resignation or death of the congressman).
In addition, the midterm elections will also be held for the legislative and administrative elections of governors, states and counties.
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