[Text/Observer Network Xiong Chaoran] "The United States and Saudi Arabia have a 'secret oil agreement', at least the US side thinks so. Although President Biden visited Saudi , Saudi Arabia still pushed for oil production cuts, which made the United States angry because they felt deceived."
Revolving around the current turbulent turbulence between the US and Saudi relations, " New York Times " released a long article on October 26 local time, redisclosing the unknown behind-the-scenes situation.
reported that Biden, who once angrily criticized Saudi Arabia as a "untouchable country", visited the country this summer at the risk of being "slapped in the face", while his senior aides believed that they had reached a "secret agreement" with Saudi Arabia to increase oil production by the end of the year, divided into two parts, which helped prove that Biden's visit to the Saudi royal family violated his campaign promises and made contact with the Saudi royal family reasonable.
However, what went against my wishes was that after fulfilling the first part of the "secret agreement", the alliance of oil exporting countries led by Saudi Arabia announced a reduction in oil production in early October, which was exactly the opposite of the agreement that the Biden administration believes it had agreed. This has also triggered a fierce confrontation between the two countries recently, and the United States is very angry about Saudi Arabia's "deception."
The New York Times pointed out that everything that has happened in the past six months is like a story full of "wishful thinking", "missing signals" and "accusing of breach of trust". There are mutual misunderstandings between the United States and Saudi Arabia. Not only did the Biden administration not repair the US-Saudi relations, but instead exacerbated the turmoil in this bilateral relationship. As for the Saudi crown prince, the report believes that he obviously wants to get rid of Saudi Arabia's long-term dependence on the United States and want to truly control Saudi Arabia through himself.
Screenshot of the report of the New York Times
Biden has a bad relationship with Saudi Arabia, and his staff want to quietly repair the beginning of this long disclosed article. The New York Times said that the content of this article is based on an interview with officials from the United States and the Gulf Arab countries, as well as an interview with an expert in the Middle East who was aware of the discussion between the United States and Saudi Arabia, which hinted to readers that the article is very authentic.
subsequently reported that when Biden insisted on a controversial Saudi trip, U.S. Congressmen were told in a confidential briefing and the oil production increase agreement that the visit would be huge and could prompt Saudi Arabia to increase oil production from September to December. And this is also the reason why the US government is angry with Saudi Arabia today. The report then explained the details.
In fact, Biden administration officials have planned to hold summits for US and Saudi leaders this spring. They also know that consecutive visits to Israel and Saudi Arabia will attract criticism this summer. In addition, during the campaign, Biden condemned Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for the "Kashukgi murder case", criticizing Saudi Arabia as a "untouchable country", and always refused to meet with the Saudi Crown Prince after taking office.
But Biden's staff saw the short-term and long-term interests of visiting Saudi Arabia and have been trying to quietly repair the relationship. They believe that the United States and Saudi Arabia can cooperate on the Yemen War and Iran issue and expand Israel's acceptance in the Middle East, more directly because Biden's visit may convince Saudi Arabia to make a promise to increase oil production as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict leads to a surge in global energy prices.
On July 15, Biden met with Saudi King Salman and then met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The picture is from Pengpai Image
The US side believes that two parts of "secret oil agreement" have been reached
It is disclosed that US State Department Senior Advisor to Energy Security Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk, a senior official in charge of Middle East policy, are both supporters of Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia. They have held talks with the Saudi Crown Prince and his advisers this spring. In May this year, the United States and Saudi Arabia reached a two-part "secret oil agreement".
Part 1: Saudi Arabia will accelerate the "OPEC+" production increase plan originally scheduled for September, and move this production increase plan to July and August.
Part 2: Saudi Arabia promotes "OPEC+" to announce an increase of 200,000 barrels from September to December.
U.S. officials said they hope that the statement of gradually increasing oil production will send a clear signal to the market that Saudi Arabia is willing to come forward to resolve the oil supply problem.
htmlOn June 2, "OPEC+" announced its decision to increase production, increasing production by 648,000 barrels per day in July and August, thus completing the first part of the "Secret Oil Agreement". On the same day, White House also announced that Biden was about to visit Saudi Arabia.At this time, many Democrats still expressed discomfort and objection to Biden's violation of his campaign promises and going to Saudi Arabia to meet the crown prince. Hawkstan and McGrack and others continued to introduce to them the agreement reached by the United States and Saudi Arabia, saying that the purpose of this trip was to promote oil production and reduce oil prices. Democratic lawmakers attending these confidential briefings also know that for U.S. consumers hit by inflation and the Democrats who were already surrounded by enemies before the November midterm elections, it would be a "relief" for Saudi Arabia to make a superficial commitment to increase oil production.
After that, Biden started his first trip to the Middle East during his tenure in mid-July, during which he visited Saudi Arabia. The scene of him fighting fists with the Saudi crown prince without shaking hands also became the international focus at that time.
On July 15, Biden and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman flirted. The picture has been since Pengpai Image
A good "October Surprise" drama
After Biden visited Saudi Arabia, the United States believes that the agreement between the two sides is on track, and the Saudi crown prince will be satisfied with it. But in Riyadh , senior Saudi officials privately revealed to others that they have no plans to further increase oil production.
's first public warning about this was on August 3, when OPEC+ announced a slight increase of 100,000 barrels per day in September, a quantity that US officials believe Saudi Arabia had promised them.
Just when U.S. officials were puzzled by this, "OPEC+" announced another cut of 100,000 barrels of daily production on September 5, which was equivalent to recouping the production increase decision announced a month ago. Since then, U.S. officials have become increasingly confused and worried about the direction of Saudi Arabia's policy.
html At the end of September, U.S. officials began to hear that Saudi Arabia might let OPEC+ announce a significant oil cut at its meeting on October 5, and the United States was eager to persuade the Saudi crown prince to give up any such action. On September 24, U.S. officials met with Saudi Crown Prince and his brother, Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman. According to people familiar with the matter, the Saudi Crown Prince assured the Americans on the spot that "the production will not be reduced."Just four days later, the White House learned that the Saudi crown prince had made the opposite decision: Saudi Arabia will support the production cut at the "OPEC+" meeting held in Vienna, Austria on October 5.
On October 5, "OPEC+" indeed announced that it had decided to reduce oil production by 2 million barrels per day from November. This is the largest oil production cut since the epidemic, equivalent to about 2% of global oil demand.
Saudi Arabia believes that this move is "purely due to economic factors, not political factors" in order to balance and stability of the oil market; while the United States believes that Saudi Arabia's move may lead to a sharp surge in oil prices, which will bring further pressure to Western consumers, and at the same time, "borrowing oil prices has helped Russia." As a result, a recent fierce war of words broke out between Washington and Riyadh.
On October 5th local time, energy ministers from various countries held their first face-to-face meeting since the start of the new crown pneumonia epidemic at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna, and decided to cut production by 2 million barrels per day from November, a drop higher than expected. Image from The Paper Image
US Sha's relations have not been repaired, and we are at a trough again
"Wall Street Journal " recently quoted exclusive reports saying that before the announcement of the "OPEC+" decision, White House officials tried to persuade Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries to postpone production cuts by one month to reduce the impact on the US midterm elections, but were rejected by Saudi Arabia. The report described Saudi Arabia's rejection as a "resounding no".
On October 13, the Saudi Foreign Ministry issued a statement, posting this "resounding" on social platforms, supporting the authenticity of the above news. The statement made the US side "excited and angry". The White House issued a statement on the same day to counterattack, sternly accusing Saudi Arabia of "no market foundation" in its decision to cut production.
Screenshot of the Wall Street Journal report
The New York Times quoted some analysts' views as saying that senior U.S. and Saudi officials misunderstood each other on oil market dynamics and Russia-related geopolitical issues, and it is difficult for the Biden administration to figure out how things are going wrong.
Hussein Ibish, a scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, described: "The deconstructed Saudi decision now is like a study of the Soviet Union's political system with steroids. This has become a problem for the relatively few people around the Saudi king and crown prince. In the United States, even the most well-informed people often do not know it."
The New York Times believes that what has happened in the past six months is a story about "verbal agreement", "wishful thinking", "missing signals", and "accusing of breach of trust". After the "Kashukgi murder case", the Biden administration's exchanges with the Saudi royal family not only did not rebuild the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia, but instead caused this turbulent bilateral relations to fall into another trough. The report
also said that this incident is also a very revelatory example, indicating that under the leadership of the ambitious and ruthless Saudi Crown Prince, Saudi Arabia seems to be eager to get rid of its long-term dependence on the United States, while the Crown Prince himself tries to make Saudi Arabia a powerful country of its own.
sand specials stand with Russia?
U.S. officials said they believe the Saudi crown prince was particularly affected by a high-level meeting on September 27, when Saudi Energy Minister Abdul-Aziz bin Salman said it was necessary to cut oil production to prevent oil prices from plummeting to $50 a barrel.
Some U.S. officials believe that it was the Russians who influenced the Saudis' attitude change, and the Saudi energy minister has a close working relationship with senior Russian officials who have close ties with Putin, especially the Russian Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Policy, Alexander Novak.
Saudi Energy Minister Abdul-Aziz bin Salman attended the "Future Investment Initiative" conference on October 25, Photo from Reuters
Saudi Arabia has always strongly denied standing with Russia and said that it is a "neutral mediator" in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The US believes that whether Riyadh will really tie its destiny with Moscow , the answer will be revealed when "OPEC+" meets again on December 4.
At present, the White House is working with its European allies to implement partial embargo and price cap measures on Russian oil starting from December 5, aiming to put pressure on Putin to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and maintain stability in global oil supply.
However, the New York Times said that this depends largely on the Saudis' decision, and if they refuse to announce production increases in December, it will continue to undermine Biden's pressure on Russia.
On October 25th local time, the "Future Investment Initiative" Conference (FII), known as "Davos in the Desert", opened in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Energy Minister Abdul-Aziz bin Salman said on the same day that in the oil supply dispute with the United States, Saudi Arabia decided to be a "more mature person" and would take measures that are most in line with its own interests.
What he said later was more obvious to the United States: "We have been hearing you say, 'either support us or oppose us'. Is there any room for 'we stand with the people of Saudi Arabia'?"
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