November 6, in Chicago , voters prepare to vote at a polling station. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Wang Ping
On November 6, 2018, the new round of midterm elections in the United States was settled. After 8 years, Congress House of Representatives once again moved to the Democratic majority, while the Republican Party successfully maintained and expanded its majority advantage in Congress Senate .
, a result that basically meets the general expectations before the election, also fully demonstrates that this election basically conforms to the overall characteristics of the historical law of public opinion reversal.
Trump becomes a "lame" president
In the House of Representatives, the Democratic and Republican parties have basically staged a war to stabilize their own basic structures.
For the Democratic Party, "all politics are identity", that is, the "identity identity" card effectively increases the turnout of women, minorities and other vulnerable groups, achieving a reversal in some constituencies.
For the Republican Party, the key to saving the election situation is obviously to maintain the turnout of the moderate party groups within the party who are dissatisfied with the Trump administration, but so far, this effort has not been successful. In the Senate election that originally caused the Democrats to face greater uncertainty, the Republicans' current , Indiana, , and North Dakota, are both the first time Democratic incumbents seeking re-election. Moreover, the two states have also shown a conservative tendency in recent years in terms of political situation, so it is not surprising.
In any case, the 2018 midterm election means that the first time since 1952, the Republican president has come to power, and the state of a unified government that has been in full control of the two houses is over. Washington politics will enter a new stage of so-called "discrete government".
For Trump, "lame" has become an institutional dilemma that he has to face.
White House may face a "closing crisis" again
The predictions about "lame" naturally need to be carried out first with domestic policies. By general view, Trump's domestic policy agenda, which is "unsuccessful" in the first two years of his term, will be struggling under the boycott of Congress Democrats.
In fact, the embarrassment caused by this "discrete government" is likely to come to Trump and the Republican Party sooner or even inevitably. There is no formal full-year allocation for fiscal year 2019, and the current temporary allocation will expire on December 8 this year. Democrats who have become the majority of the next House of Representatives will naturally not willingly pass the full fiscal year allocation. At most, they will only continue and delay the final decision to the 116th Congress, which can show their skills. How to eliminate this landmine that may trigger a "closing crisis" at any time has undoubtedly become a problem.
In addition, on March 1, 2019, the expiration of a new round of federal debt ceiling will definitely become the battlefield for the Democratic Party, and the Democratic Party will definitely maximize the priority enjoyed by the House of Representatives in the "purse power" and its derivative policies.
The essential result of domestic policy troubles is that there is no legislative output, or repeating the limited so-called "crisis". This situation may not necessarily mean Trump's absolute dilemma.
On the one hand, although Trump and the Republican Party’s agenda will be difficult to move forward, the Democratic Party cannot be able to advance its own agenda.
On the other hand, Trump's offensive still lies in his firm control over the public agenda as the president, especially the "social media president". In this sense, Trump's recent seemingly "whimsical" signal of abolishing "birth citizenship" is actually a complete sound of the "rallying call" of the conservatives. Whether
can be implemented is second. By setting up some agendas that directly reach the hearts of conservatives, a storm of movement and heading straight to the 2020 election may be Trump's transcendent layout in China in the next two years.
On November 6, a voter received votes in Manhattan, New York, USA. Photo by Li Rui, Xinhua News Agency,
"Lame" Trump may make an article on foreign policy
Another mainstream prediction about "lame" may be "losses within the dike and compensation outside the dike". There is no progress in domestic policies, and efforts need to be made in foreign policy issues to add some results to the 2020 election.Will the logic of
really happen? If we compare historically, that is, to see how the president who lost the House of Representatives in the first term midterm elections made a choice, the recent precedent is actually Obama after the Democrats lost the majority in the House of Representatives in 2010.
Facing the 112th Congress of the Republican Party leading the House of Representatives, Obama did three major things in 2011: launching the " Odyssey Dawn " operation on March 19 to strike Libya , killing bin Laden on May 2, and announcing the end of the Iraq War on December 18. Among the three things
, at least the last two had a positive impact on Obama's poll that year, basically offsetting the negative drag caused by the debt ceiling crisis that year, thus allowing Obama to advance into the suspense with a not-too-negative poll.
Judging from this experience, Trump is also likely to cater to domestic audiences by dancing solo on the international stage. When choosing foreign policy issues that can be added, he probably meets two standards: one is to respond to the demands of the basic and key markets (blue-collar middle and lower levels); the other is to be effective in the short term and avoid delaying the quagmire.
In this sense, the Middle East does not seem to be a good choice, and trade issues, peninsula affairs, and even U.S.-Russia relations are more likely to become the focus of big things. Even if the Democrats want to win the 2020 election, they must attract the key to blue-collar workers, and in terms of trade protection policies, the possibility of a "strengthening competition" with the White House will not be too small.
2020 elections may be staged by heroes
In addition, an invisible manifestation of "lame" is actually the only "big male lead" in the American political drama. The result of the midterm election is the beginning of the general election. This statement has become more and more reasonable as the election cycle is ahead in recent years. No matter how many open election cycles in 2008 or 2016, the election of such an incumbent person seeking re-election in 2012 probably kicked off on March 3, 2011 when Gingrich announced his candidacy.
So, within a few months after this midterm election, challengers are likely to emerge in the Democratic camp. Whether it is Elizabeth Warren , Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, or even Biden , these people will not only "snatch the headlines" with Trump, but will also have various policy confrontations with Trump
The "competing for heroes" situation will aggravate Trump's sense of crisis about 2020. At that time, the US president who leads the whole world to run with him may do something even more shocking.
2018 US midterm elections . Photo/Beijing News "Moving News"
Democrats who took back the House of Representatives also have their worries
Trump holding the national steering wheel "lame his feet", and Democrats who sit back in the co-pilot also have their worries.
On the one hand, the reorganization of different factions within the Democratic Party was clearly visible in the 2016 general election. Now that it has certain power, it will inevitably explode again.
Under this big blue tent, it is inevitable that there is a sense of incongruity for the 78-year-old Pelosi and 29-year-old Ocasio, not to mention the need to achieve leadership and collaboration. The adjustment of the Democratic Party’s leadership involves the choice of the route in the next two years. Whether to challenge Trump with tit-for-tat or to come up with solutions that meet the key appetite, the Democratic Party faces huge tests that are likely to be unable to cope with in terms of ecology and philosophy.
On the other hand, if the US economic indicators cannot maintain a good state in the next two years, and even Trump will find it difficult to achieve more domestic performance in the next two years, then wouldn’t the Democrats who occupy the majority of the House of Representatives come to save the situation? At least in the 2020 campaign mobilization framework, Trump will blame all the problems at that time on the Democratic Party’s drag and boycott.
seems to be, even the seemingly embarrassing "lame" is actually just a return to the historical normality of American politics. But it is undeniable that the polarization of party struggles and fierce struggles between the government have long become a common drama of this historical norm.
□ Diao Daming (researcher at the National Institute of Development and Strategy, Renmin University of China, associate professor at the School of International Relations of Renmin University)
Editor Li Bingbing Proofreading Guo Liqin
