This weekend, the most backstage message was hoping that I would take a look at US stock and then make some objective judgments about A stock .
Let’s talk about the US stock market last Thursday. At that time, the Dow Jones Index did not actually fall much, but the Nasdaq Index fell 1.6%. The key is that the six major technology giants in the US stock market experienced a sharp drop. Of course, this affects not only the Nasdaq Index, but also has a greater impact on the Chinese stock . After all, these are all technology stocks . Therefore, after the Nasdaq Index fell sharply on Thursday night, the reaction on Friday was particularly fierce on the Hang Seng Technology Index, and the maximum intraday decline once reached 6%, and the Hang Seng Comprehensive Index also fell 4% on the same day. Generally speaking, after the Hang Seng Index plummeted, it often has a transmission effect on A-shares, especially the decline in Hong Kong stock technology stocks has had a relatively large impact on A-share new energy vehicle . On Friday, Ning Wang formed a new killing after Moutai. I think this is a core reason why the index fell by 66 points.
not only broke the level at 3000 points, but also reached 2915 points at one point. In this case, let alone the safety of 3000 points, it seems that the previous low of 2863 points is also in danger. Everyone is very anxious now. Although I always think that there is no need to worry about the 3,000 points, and there is no problem in theory and historical laws, reality sometimes does not seem to be friendly to theory and laws. The key is that the market structure is very different from the measurement at the point of the index.
Simply put, the 3000 point broke, and the risks were fully released, but at this time you have to understand what risks were released. There is currently no clear definition. Moutai fell from 2,600 yuan to 1,360 yuan, a drop of 50%. Is it true? Is the valuation expensive now? There is no way to explain clearly. Ning Wang's current stock price of 365 yuan is almost 50% lower than the high point of 691 yuan, but the market still thinks it is expensive. Judging from the performance of these core assets, the support of 3,000 points does not seem to match the cost-effectiveness below. This is the contradiction under structure. You think the opportunity below 3,000 points is just an index rationality, and it still doesn't seem to have a role in structural unreasonableness. The best way in this case is to rely on a spark to start a prairie fire. You must remember that although the contradiction in the index is below 3,000 points, market entities still attach great importance to this point. Otherwise, how could there be a reversal trend after 427? I think this time will be no exception. The formation of 2863 points is not meaningless. Now we have to rely on mysterious funds to find ways to stabilize the weight stocks first. For example, large banks did not fall on Friday, and Bank of China also rose by a point against the trend. These should be positive signals, indicating that the relevant levels are already paying attention to the market, and we still have to have some confidence in this.
US stocks seem to have reversed, will it be beneficial to A-shares?
After talking about A-shares, let’s look at the actual situation of US stocks. On Friday night, the two major indexes of US stocks rose very well. The Dow Jones Index rose to 2.59%, and the Nasdaq Index also rose nearly 3%. If you look at the trend of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in recent times overall, you will find that there is a clear sustainability. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell from the highest point of 36952 points to the low point of this round of 28660 points, down about 8000 points, with a drop of 20%, but if you look at this wave of cumulative rebound, it has exceeded 4000 points. This means that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has recovered half of the previous decline and seems to have gradually reversed the trend.
Why did the US stock market emerge from such a trend? In fact, there are two factors in this wave of decline in US stocks: one is the recovery of liquidity by . The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike , which led to the decline of US stocks; the other is everyone's concerns about the US economic recession. These two factors not only affect the problems of US stocks themselves, or the problems existing in the US economy themselves, but also have a significant impact on the global market.
A shares should be said to have the greatest impact in this process. The continuous depreciation of the RMB is the best portrayal. Now that the US stock market is rising, I think at least it means that even if there is still hike rate in November, the strength has been greatly alleviated in the future. This is a release for US stocks. I believe that this effect will also be passed on to A-shares. The pressure of RMB depreciation is reduced, and the current situation of foreign capital outflow will also be changed. It is not without hope for the market to gradually move well. A-shares are not as good as US stocks. A-shares do not follow when US stocks rise, but follow strongly when US stocks fall. However, from this cycle of Fed interest rate hikes, I feel that the trend linkage between US stocks and A-shares is further enhanced. The previous peak time of the US stock market was from November to January 2021. You can see that A-shares are almost synchronized with the US stock cycle. Since US stocks have rebounded so much, I think there is no reason for A-shares not to follow. It may be because of the lag of trends. From this point of view, the reversal of US stocks will have a positive effect on A-shares.
Disclaimer: The content in the article is for reference only and does not constitute any operational suggestions or prompts. Please be cautious when there are risks in the stock market and investment!
